Sierra Snowpack 2015

Out of curiosity, how many know that regional sewer treatment plants discharge treated water into the delta, whose water then gets pumped to southern California plus bay area communities for drinking water? That’s what happens with the Sacramento’s Regional treatment plant discharge.

Here is a map from a few years ago of major sewer discharges into the Delta:

http://www.sustainabledelta.com/toiletbowl.html

"Why do I get the feeling that this what WILL happen?"

People are stubborn. Combined with a high degree of techno-optimism it spells a recipe for disaster.

Worrying about more people coming into California is quite comical, when the real worry is how you'll get water. This is the worst drought CA has had in 100 yrs, possibly 500. With the drought forecasted to last much, much longer, survival must be taken into account. Luxuries are out the window. If you want to water your lawn, move elsewhere. Sure, big ag takes a large chunk of water, but the water situation wouldn't drastically improve if they cut their water usage in half. That's also ignoring any resulting effects that that rationing would have on food supply. Modern day California was doomed from the start.

Something else worth noting is Lake Mead's water levels. The states that extract water from Lake Mead do so from two separate outlet pipes. One at 1050 feet and one at 1000 feet. The current level of the lake is 1085 feet. If decline rates continue, the level of the lake will be below pipe 1 sometime during the next year and pipe 2 will be dry in 2018-2019.

The Southern Nevada Water Authority is building a third pipe at 875 feet at the tune of $1.5 billion, that will have taken 8 years to build (finished sometime this year). Of course that will eventually go dry as well if the current conditions continue. Nevermind the fact that California has been taking in excess of their allocation because of the drought, further depleting the lake level.

"Why do I get the feeling that this what WILL happen?"

Because Western society is built upon capitalisation which depends upon consumption GROWING. At all costs. Industry and vested interests dictate to powerless politicians.
Easter Island on a global scale.

"Worrying about more people coming into California is quite comical, when the real worry is how you'll get water."

Wrong … er, since more people = more water needs.

" This is the worst drought CA has had in 100 yrs, possibly 500. With the drought forecasted to last much, much longer, survival must be taken into account."

Forecast? There is no reliable forecast for how long a drought will last…

"If you want to water your lawn, move elsewhere."

You opinion. But you have no say in this. Not your call.

"Sure, big ag takes a large chunk of water, but the water situation wouldn't drastically improve if they cut their water usage in half."

Wrong again… just mouthing off an opinion. Ag uses far more water than people. Saving half of the Ag use would more than double the amount left for people.

"That's also ignoring any resulting effects that that rationing would have on food supply."

Wong again… Man you are on a roll…. I dip irrigation were adopted there would be no need to ration Ag water… they can grow the same amount with 1/10th the water if they were to go to drip…

Timely article came out today.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/03/30/how-growers-gamed-california-s-drought.html

Water simply is not priced correctly, which encourages the poor use of water.

Tony

For those of you who want a more concrete look at how much we use here in CA:

Interactive Map of California’s Urban Water Use

This will let you dig into each crop’s water use –
CA Department of Water Resources Land & Water Use

One of the challenges in summarizing who uses how much water in CA is that it does vary by region. The Public Policy Institute of California estimates 33% Environmental, 53% agricultural and 14% urban (excluding CA’s North Coast).
Water Use in California

Read that interactive map carefully. There are certain urban municipalities that are conveniently omitted from the map.

–B.G.–

"Because Western society is built upon capitalisation which depends upon consumption GROWING. At all costs. Industry and vested interests dictate to powerless politicians.
Easter Island on a global scale."

+1 And there will be a reckoning, sooner rather than later at the rate we are going.

Billy- What do you think climate forecasting does? Nobody said it was 100% certain. Nobody also said its ending anytime soon.

I'm not mouthing off opinions. The water isn't there. If you cut the water in half, yes, it is obvious that you would "save" a lot of water. But you are only delaying the inevitable. There is not enough water for California's current population. Now or in the future. I'm saying that worrying about extra people coming in is foolish because you have too many people already. If the drought continues at its current rate, severe water rationing will happen. People aren't going to suddenly move to California because big ag cuts their water. Water rates are basically the same, at the moment, as other places in the country.

If you want to deny the issue, cherry pick points and complain about big ag, be my guest. I really don't care too much about this, since I don't live in California and never will. It is interesting to look at from an outside perspective.

"Because Western society is built upon capitalisation which depends upon consumption GROWING

+1 And there will be a reckoning, sooner rather than later at the rate we are going."

Aren't there some countries like Norway or Denmark that are healthy and stable?

Japan is stable but has had poor economy for decades, but it's a lot more complicated than slow growth.

We should buy fewer, higher quality things that last longer, and planed recycling.

We can transition to no growth. We can still have capitalism.

Of course we could just ignore it and grow until we have catastrophic collapse, but maybe we're smarter than that.

"Of course we could just ignore it and grow until we have catastrophic collapse, but maybe we're smarter than that."

Not likely…

When our economy slows there are about 300 million whining that the government should do something about it… and voting the politicians out of office…

Billy

"What do you think climate forecasting does? Nobody said it was 100% certain."

I really doubt there is any long term climate forecasting with a proven track record that exceeds 50% reliability… er, like flipping a coin.

If there is, please quote the source Jack.

Billy

Well we are getting off topic and I don't want to turn this into chaff so this will be my last post on this specific matter.

Mathematical/statistical models don't really function as being right or wrong. They operate and make conclusions based off how the data points fit within a standard deviation. From there they make conclusions. One standard deviation=68% of the points are close to the mean within the model, 2 sd=95% and 3 sd=99.9%. These models are based upon things like mathematical principles and laws of physics.

Per your request for a source-here's the question answered by the IPCC* http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/faq-8-1.html

*Note to all: I ask that you please refrain from discussing the merits of climate change here. There's a thread in chaff for that.

No snow in the Trinity Alps either. Even Shasta looks like late summer. Water is still flowing out of those hills. I'm hoping for a low mosquito year. I'm sure the ticks will pick up the slack. It's a big dry mess, the West. I still like living here as opposed to the East Coast. Roomier. Nature bats last.

Weather forecasters here have announced the return of the ridiculously resilient ridge. Dry weather. In '06 it rained all but two days in March. Started raining in the end of October and quit on the 16th of June. Eel River almost flooded. The pendulum swings both ways.

uh oh

Rog's law in action

"all threads eventually degenerate to the carbon flame war"…

"I still like living here as opposed to the East Coast. Roomier."

All the people in California are going to move to Oregon and Washington – thirsty

All the people on the East coast and the middle of the country are going to move to Oregon and Washington – tired of shoveling snow

Jack,,, and I quote from your source:
"Confidence in model estimates is higher for some climate variables (e.g., temperature) than for others (e.g., precipitation)."

The last I heard the climate change scientists were speculating (and I use that word because this is all guesstimating… whether you use scientific models with equations or not as they are all based on 'assumptions'), that global warming would warm the Pacific Ocean, the warmer water would evaporate more moisture into the air, and the west coast would get higher precipitation than normal… But, of course, they stopped trotting that part of the theory out after about the 2nd year of the west coast drought.

Bottom Line: they really don't know.

billy

California was never projected to get more rain. It's currently following what's predicted. More rain was predicted in western OR and WA.

This is futile. Cheers, Billy.

> Japan is stable but has had poor economy for decades, but it's a lot more complicated
> than slow growth.

I question the idea that they have a 'poor economy'. They have a STABLE economy. For the general (Japanese) public, this is fine.

That the Japanese economy is not growing at 10% is of concern to those speculators who rely on continued growth. But if you ignore those speculators (banks, developers, etc) then everyone else is happy. (OK, except for the nuclear plant operators and builders. Tough.)

Ultimately, the rest of the planet will have to adjust to the idea that there are 'limits to growth'. Earth has finite resources.

Cheers

All the people … and the middle of the country a … tired of shoveling snow

ALL? Not this one;-)

means I have water to drink. I'm Ok with not living in the communist state of Kalifornia that is going to dry up and blow away. I'll take the snow.

Gov. Jerry Brown, standing on a patch of brown grass in the Sierra Nevadas that is usually covered with several feet of snow, on Wednesday announced the first ever mandatory water restrictions in California history.

Brown was on hand Wednesday as state officials took stock of historically abysmal levels of snowpack in the Sierra Nevada amid the state’s grinding drought.

Brown ordered the State Water Resources Control Board to implement mandatory water restrictions to reduce water usage by 25 percent. The water savings is expected to amount to 1.5 million acre-feet of water over the next nine months.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-32151413

The New York Times came up with a better water map than the one that I had posted previously:

Water use in California

edited to correct link