The COVID 19 outbreak. Does it mean MORE backpacking this year?

I always root for the bears and turkeys

I tell the hunters I’m going to give them opposite directions on where the deer actually are.  The hunters laugh.  A little.

“Sharing some “enlightening” reading, COVID-19 related, about six minutes:”

Good read Larry. My brother and I were talking about this earlier today, and surmised that much of the issue was what the article talked about.

jscott: “Eugene, is the rationale that all those campers would be travelling from all over?”

I honestly do not know. The person in the St. Paul office for DNR got pretty snippy with me almost immediately. Must be tired of us asking the obvious.  Even though I’m taking the “quarantine” very seriously, some of the mandates do not make sense to me. Just to maintain a little sanity and avoiding being upset, I’ve decided the rationall must be that the state thinks all camping involves groups and that “state park” groups will just do disbursed camping because they can.

It’s just that with the park closed to any off road motorized vehicles because of the spring thaw, and therefor walking is the only way to move around, I’m pretty sure I’ll be the only person withing a half more or more.

Dr. Fauci is predicting more waves of this coronavirus until a vaccine is distributed (posted this in Chaff too fwiw)…

https://www.forbes.com/sites/marleycoyne/2020/04/02/the-us-may-be-heading-to-a-second-or-even-fourth-wave-of-the-coronavirus-epidemic-heres-what-that-means/#1614ffe016a0

.. but the current stay at home orders are for keeping patient numbers down at the present as to try not overwhelming hospitals.  In later waves, the US and other countries will be better prepared.  Waves however, suggests peaks and troughs, so maybe things will relax a bit if viral activity goes lower.

Thinking the administration will try reopening commerce into the summertime regardless as it’s an Election year and many are chaffing (no pun intended) under the current restrictions.  It’s mostly young people wanting to get back to work/life but even some elder groups as well.   Also businesses want to reopen as many have not taken the zero percent loan (especially small/rural).

The first thing is whether any rural town one may stop in officially welcomes visitors and then whether those welcomed , in the event of a subsequent outbreak [which is guaranteed], will be allowed to pass thru with minimal gas-snack/take shelter in a hotel without discrimination.  Think the traveler takes the risk of a trip being canceled en route, but if already there (and invited) a case can be made they be given safe passage.
Already heard stories from the climbing community on Fb (its too early for most regular backpacking) that their tires are being slashed.

I think, from the perspective of park managers, people are still congregating in crowds

So, they just close them

Given the urgency of the situation, this makes sense to me

If someone used a park and following social distancing protocol, probably no one would say anything

If there are huge number of cars and technically, people say they’re still staying 6 feet apart, that doesn’t count.  Not possible if there are too many people.

Gunnison is considering closing town like they did during the 1918 flu for 4 months. Armed police prohibiting and entry or exit. It worked back in the day. No one died there of the flu.

Close off towns ..

This virus is way more transmissible than the flu and the towns aren’t as self-reliant (we don’t know how long the virus lives on packages at what temperature, etc …).  I worked at one of those distributor centers decades ago and it was pretty efficient.  They wanted stuff to get out fairly efficiently however, so unless mandated to sanitize (guess who will pick up the bill?)

Interestingly, Delaware posted police off Interstates (which cannot be blocked I assume) and other roadways to remind drivers to self-isolate 14 days if staying in state.

https://6abc.com/delaware-coronavirus-covid-19-state-police-out-of-license-plates/6072494/

Was thinking about a bikepacking trip along one of the old canals changed to trails to visit an uncle in Baltimore, but thats later when there’s a vaccine likely.

a bikepacking trip along one of the old canals changed to trails
Very creative. Sounds nice.

Cheers

I was hiking near the AT yesterday, but not on it. There were trail closure signs at the approach trail. I was parked across the creek from a FS closed campground, on a public gravel road. We hiked on an unofficial trail used by locals which has no signs. Arriving back at the car a few hours later, there was a note written on a FS Campground pay envelope under the wiper blade. The campground host or some volunteer wrote the note: “No Parking. AT closed by USFS.”

Next time I’ll leave them a note: “Not hiking AT. Don’t tread on me!”.

Now a bit of a moot point because Georgia is now on state-wide lockdown.

Cheers,
Bill in Roswell, GA

According to an epidemiologist who works for the CDC, the virus is not likely to be transmitted via mail, packaging, books, or other paper surfaces. Even if a person who is ill were to sneeze directly onto a paper surface, the virus is not likely to come out of that surface and infect someone. There is no need to sanitize grocery boxes, mail packages, or mail in ballots – hint, that last one might be an important bit of information come November if democracy is going to survive this epidemic. Hard surfaces, like doorknobs, chairs, countertops etc. are a different matter, and should be cleaned and disinfected with household-type cleaners (there’s a list of effective cleaners on the CDC website).

I’m acutely aware of all this because I work in a library and there was moderate panic by our staff about the books. The CDC assured us there is no need to quarantine books! And also addressed interlibrary loan packages, mail etc.

This is a scary disease, but what’s scarier is the panic and the hype. It’s as if all the zombie movies have taken hold in people’s minds. One person I know was worried about seeing people outside his car, not even close to them. Don’t worry, they’re not going to eat your brains!

I’m acutely aware of all this because I work in a library and there was moderate panic by our staff about the books.

People are lucky if they still have open libraries there—they’re closed here (Bay Area, CA). It would be hard to stay six feet apart in one, I’d think.

So, I’m reading ebooks from the library instead—right now (the) one about (Grandma) Emma Gatewood.

Another thought is rural spread occurred  quickly where skiing and general tourism was popular.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/03/28/coronavirus-cases-soar-outside-new-york-rural-countries-hit-hard/2926572001/

Not the only mode as delivery drivers could spread it too (why gloves haven’t been mandated for gas pumps is a mystery).

Hope there’s some long lasting herd immunity spreading and a vaccine soon, but that’ll depend on what science tells us.

Just a quick note from Hikin Jim’s Facebook page:

So (finally) people in the country have a legitimate reason to object to what city folks bring to their communities.

Tennessee just issued a Shelter in Place order for the next 30 days so I guess my bi-weekly dayhike will be out for next Friday.  Technically hiking is still OK, but the city has closed all city parks, the state has closed all state parks, so there isn’t anywhere to go that I know of.  I’m sure some of the remote Cumberland Trail trailheads would be out of the way enough that nobody would notice, and I never see anyone else on the trail, but I guess if I were to get hurt, it could put SAR personnel at risk.  I guess that means the local hiking season is over – it will be too hot and humid by the time the order is up.

If they tell me I can’t go outside and run by myself in my neighborhood, they’ll have to get ready to write me citation or take me to jail.

It won’t mean much in a week anyways as I’ll be working on a essential job 13 hours a day for the next 14-21 days.

New cases in Oregon seem to be dropping since they implemented stay at home order:

Same with Washington:

New York new cases are still increasing, although not as steeply as before:

Plotted on the same scale:

Washington had the most cases in the country but they took action early.  Now they hardly show up on the plot vs new york

Oregon learned from their neighbor and has largely avoided this, you can’t even see it on the plot.

The rest of the country needs to implement aggressive social distancing, that’s the only thing that works.  Being in the middle of the country is not a defense.  Delaying will create new New Yorks.  New York has to have more aggressive social distancing

Quit complaining about not being able to go on a hike : )

Complain the government is so slow in mandating aggressive social distancing

“Complain the government is so slow in mandating aggressive social distancing”

Absolutely.  Trump fell on his ass with all this. He had no idea what to do and hesitated. We see the result. New York, hesitated for about 2 weeks while they gathered information…a fatal error. ACT NOW if you can. Social Distancing is perhaps the biggest help. Do it.

I just heard that Oregon sent 140 ventilators to New York.

Last I read we have 750 ventilators that currently aren’t being used.  Maybe when/if it’s more clear we’ve beat this, we can send more.  Maybe New Jersey, they’re hot on New York’s tail.

Agree with James for sure. California acted aggressively and fast and it is making a difference.

Florida dithered along with Trump–who’s still dithering. Florida is filled with retirees and out of staters. The kids are going to want to come in and take care of their retired parents, or bring them home. so lots of potential for out of state travel. Not a good scenario.

During my lifetime, at least in the U.S., disease hasn’t really been a barrier to hiking, school, work. Of course in other parts of the world that isn’t true. And in my parents’ life it wasn’t true. Many outbreaks, many closures, but I think the impact was more regional and we were all less global. I didn’t fly on an airplane until the age of 12, and then not again until age 16. My parents rarely traveled outside the U.S. – once for a Fulbright, in the military much earlier, but it just wasn’t common.  Anyway, I thought this brief article about polio outbreaks was interesting, again a disease unknown to my generation. Some day Covid-19 will be unknown.

Conquest of polio

Florida dithered along with Trump–who’s still dithering.
Some might suggest ‘acute raging pig-headed denial’ might be more appropriate.

Cheers

You can order commercial toilet paper from amazon, it’s available.  As opposed to regular residential toilet paper which is not available.

Consistent with Larry’s article that theorized that everyone home is why tp is short

I’m glad I was able to find some TP recently, the pine cones were plugging up my toilet…

<p style=”text-align: left;”>I thought you didnt use TP</p>