The COVID 19 outbreak. Does it mean MORE backpacking this year?

[BlackHatGuy]

One of the scarier things I’ve read about some of the deaths in Kirkland was how shocked administrators were that people went from no symptoms to death in a matter of hours.

Agree with obx, we all certainly share a responsibility to take this seriously and try to keep from getting infected/infecting others. If only Trump/Fox/etc. sent that message, instead of the message they’re sending.

[Jerry Adams]

TV story – too lazy to find link to source – there is a lab with mice that have been engineered to respond like humans.  They were used to develop Ebola treatments.

There are many viral treatments out there, some of which are probably effective against covid19.  They try them all on different mice infected with covid19.  Then select a number of viral treatments that are more effective and create a “cocktail”.  Test those on humans with covid19.  That’s what worked for Ebola, getting a treatment in the least amount of time.

They thought maybe by September they would have a treatment available for humans.

If we could use these social isolation techniques now, we can slow covid19 down until these treatments become available.

In China and northern Italy the social isolation techniques have slowed down infections.  They built those hospitals in China, but are now closing them because they don’t need them anymore.

Maybe I’m a polyana, but there is hope.

Good that we took the Ebola crisis seriously and didn’t just treat it like something in some other country that doesn’t affect us.  Developed the lab that created the tools to develop viral treatments.

Good that we’re taking covid19 seriously.

This shows how we need effective government agencies.  Yeah, they’re all screwed up, but the alternative, nothing, is worse.

We need the politicians to start doing their jobs, overseeing the government agencies.  This polarization, tribalism, win at all costs attitude has gone way too far, time for the pendulum to swing back the other direction.

uh oh, leaking over from chaff

[Brad Rogers]

My guess is we won’t see significant increase in backpacking this year as it’s so much of a niche activity that most people that aren’t already backpackers aren’t going to get into it just because they aren’t going to do something else.   Car camping may see some more pressure this year especially if more travel restrictions are put in place.

I’m a little concerned about my big trip this year, which of course will require me to fly – in case flight restrictions are imposed.

I’m not sure that this is an apocalyptic moment or anything but they did roll out plan at work where they would keep essential personnel on site working and on site unable to go home until the pandemic is lifted, and all non essential personnel would be sent home (to work remotely?).  They have asked us all to take our laptops home daily in case they implement the plan.

[W I S N E R !]

My wife and I will be spending some time in Anza-Borrego and then backpacking in Utah at the end of March; I don’t see that changing on the personal end unless someone in the family is sick.  As for travel, I’d have to imagine that camping/backpacking is probably about the lowest risk there is.  Talk about “social distancing”.  Though we are going to book a shuttle with Zion Adventure Company…will have to stay on top of that and make sure they’re running.  We’ll also be camping in Zion; who knows what’s going to happen in a month in regards to the big parks and staffing.

“Who knows?” is my takeaway at this point; Italians were going about their business quite normally only a few weeks ago…

[HkNewman]

Updated background: Seems more serious as the CDC just told older Americans to stock up on food and limit their exposure..

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/09/many-americans-will-be-exposed-to-coronavirus-through-2021-cdc-says.html

Also both the US and Germany expect 70% exposure (the vast majority of the non-elderly do not exhibit symptoms it seems).  A preliminary answer to Katts’ observation about Italy is the Italian population tends to be older than even the US, so that’s why the researchers think they are having to lockdown .. despite have advance medical care.

https://time.com/5799586/italy-coronavirus-outbreak/

It’s overwhelmed their health system to the point they are reportedly concentrating on younger patients now..

https://www.businessinsider.com/prioritizing-covid-19-patients-based-age-likely-wont-fly-us-2020-3

 

Exposure also matters as emergency workers get flu despite the flu shot as they get exposed to larger viral loads.  Hence why many festivals here catering to the young are being postponed (that and liability).

As to the OP, think I will take those extra trips and maybe speed up those bucket list items.  I’m not in the prime “target”  demographic now, but will be in several years unless a working vaccine can be distributed .  So there’s doubly keeping chronic conditions at bay, so here’s raising a bran-filled super-vegan fruit muffin at ya!

[W I S N E R !]

I’m home sick today…great time to think a lot about viruses, but not the kindest time to be out in public as the “coughing guy”.

I’ll see your muffin and raise you a pair of backyard chicken eggs scrambled with homegrown chard, some smoked salmon, and strong black coffee.

[obx hiker]

Speaking of viral activity and transmissivity (stumped the spell checker with that term) apparently this isue has managed to affect the “Big Board”  Which it should really.

Meantime I think I’ll copy posts to both discussions.

As soon as I can quit laughing at O’Ware’s post and link: m m m  mm My Corona

Anyway I wouldn’t be surprised to see campgrounds have a really big year unless we all end up in Italian style isolation; which brings me to…

Newman’s links above: Thanks HK you’re posting some really informative stuff!

And finally: If I were the King of the Forest (not Duke, not Prince, and not Earl)     I’d be trying to figure out a way the 85% could help the 15% stay in isolation…… after I lit the fire of all fires to get the damn test kits rolling en masse.   ROARRRRR!

[obx hiker]

Speaking of viral activity and transmissivity (stumped the spell checker with that term) apparently this isue has managed to affect the “Big Board”  Which it should really.

Meantime I think I’ll copy posts to both discussions.

As soon as I can quit laughing at O’Ware’s post and link: m m m  mm My Corona  My Corona

Anyway I wouldn’t be surprised to see campgrounds have a really big year unless we all end up in Italian style isolation; which brings me to…

Newman’s links above: Thanks HK you’re posting some really informative stuff!

And finally: If I were the King of the Forest (not Duke, not Prince, and not Earl)     I’d be trying to figure out a way the 85% could help the 15% stay in isolation…… after I lit the fire of all fires to get the damn test kits rolling en masse.   ROARRRRR!

[Kattt]

[Kattt]

^^^^ what an exponential curve looks like.

[John “Jay” Menna]

I have a permit for the Escalate Route in  the Grand canyon starting Saturday.  I was going to spend a night in Vegas on the way there.    That plan is scrapped.  Vegas, more than most other places,  just seems like a place I dont want to be given the pathogens.

Southwest canceled my flight for credit w/o question.  The Vegas hotel guys will never give a nickle back.  Ever.

Rather than drive the 19 hours from Austin.  I think I’ll go do the Eagle Rock Loop instead.

[jscott]

Just came back from a great hike in Tilden park, that’s five minutes from my house. No virus there! It’s a beautiful day and the warblers are starting to show up in the oak forest. There’s been a couple otters in Jewel Lake recently but not today. There was one person standing quietly and enjoying the scene at the lake–everything has gone green and the reflections in the water were beautiful. We said nothing and barely exchanged a glance in order to preserve the mood.

so, yeah, go hiking.

I’m reasonably sure that I’ve already had the damn virus. my symptoms matched the description very well. meanwhile, my tutoring program at Albany middle school has been cancelled. the warriors will play to an empty arena tomorrow.

[Kattt]

^^^ question: if you believe you have the virus, why are you not self isolating completely, as in no work, no public transport, no gathering if any kind?
Hiking is all good but are you avoiding all contact with other people? I think you should..

[Edward John M]

^^^^

I’m pretty sure I also have had this iteration and well before we were told to start self isolating etc.

Three months ago it was not an issue.

It may well effect the elderly and infirm but it is a non-issue for most people.

Naturally enough it will impact people already getting end-of-life care because that is what happens to old people, we die, nothing we can do about it.

A manufactured crisis to take our minds off the worlds real problems and corrupt and incompetent politicians.

I’ll start worrying when I see bulldozers ripping out mass burial pits in our local parks

 

 

[Jerry Adams]

yeah, totally agree

another thought is, when did you first experience symptoms?  Unless it was very recently, there were almost no people in the U.S. that were contagious.  I doubt you had it.  Unless you had been to China.  If it was in the last few weeks remotely possible, but even this moment carriers are just in a few locations.  Don’t go to Kirkland or New Rochelle.

another thought is, if there’s any question talk to a medical professional.

 

[BlackHatGuy]

“It may well effect the elderly and infirm but it is a non-issue for most people.”

Most cases of COVID-19 are reportedly “mild,” but that term can be misleading. As the World Health Organization adviser Bruce Aylward clarified last week, a “mild” case of COVID-19 is not equivalent to a mild cold. Expect it to be much worse: fever and coughing, sometimes pneumonia—anything short of requiring oxygen. “Severe” cases require supplemental oxygen, sometimes via a breathing tube and a ventilator. “Critical” cases involve “respiratory failure or multi-organ failure.” — Dr. James Hamblin, The Atlantic medical writer

From: What Will You Do If You Start Coughing? “Stay home” is not a sufficient plan.

[Kattt]

@edward mkay, whatever.

@jerry what are you agreeing with?

my point is that if one thinks they have it why would they be going around as if it did not matter? Regardless of how mild the effects on said person, them spreading it around is NOT GOOD .

[jscott]

Katt, no, as I wrote “I’ve already had the virus”. Past tense. And yes I took all the usual precautions. AND I came down with it before it hit the news. It presented itself as a slightly unusual flu. I’ve been well now for more than two weeks.

As I’ve mentioned, I think this has been circulating for several weeks longer than its been in the news.

[Kattt]

^^^ sounds good.

[Jerry Adams]

I was agreeing with you Kat, a post got slipped in between, if someone has the virus don’t infect others

[Jerry Adams]

Ian’s graphic:

This is why it’s important to not infect others, even if eventually most people get it

And why the New Rochelle containment area is a good policy

 

[obx hiker]

OK there are @ 10,000 reported cases in Italy

Katt reports 827 fatalities in Italy (as of the 11th…. today)

That’s a rate of 8.2 ( or nearly 8.3) percent.

The annual seasonal flu fatality rate is .1 or one tenth of one percent.

The current rate is Italy is 82 times the average annual seasonal flu rate.

Am I missing something or doing the math wrong? That’s freaky!

[J-L]

You are missing something:

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-deaths-from-coronavirus-are-so-high-in-italy/

[jscott]

Agreed, you’re missing something. All the statistics are freaking people out and they’re not telling the whole story. They’re incomplete because they’re measuring only highly symptomatic cases: people who show up in distress at hospitals or very elderly people in nursing homes (Kirkland). For heavens sake!

From the linked article:

“Finally, the country may not be catching many of the mild cases of COVID-19. Often, as testing expands within a community, more mild cases are found, which lowers the overall death rate, Gordon said. This was the case in South Korea, which conducted more than 140,000 tests and found a fatality rate of 0.6%, according to Business Insider.”

I’d bet anything the mortality rate will go down even further.

Look at the raw numbers. They are still very small. Santa Clara county (silicon valley) has a huge population. They’ve reported something like 5 cases.

I’m all for treating this as a highly serious crisis and shutting down public events and keeping my relatives a hundred miles away. Nip this bugger in the bud or smash it down since it’s escaped. But let’s keep our heads.

[Kattt]

We also kiss people on the cheek ….I forget till I go back there.

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