The COVID 19 outbreak. Does it mean MORE backpacking this year?

We’re supposed to work from home if we have symptoms. (cough, cough)

I was just pondering the same question. For those of us who are asymptomatic, time in the bush is beneficial in so many ways – including sources of infection!

* avoiding sources of infection

Probably best to drive yourself to the trailhead and avoid public transport.

Out in the boonies, just about everyone keeps a certain personal space except couples.

May be some more solo type trips but counterbalanced by less “group-drive” trips where many share transportation for any great amount of time.  Conferences and now festivals are being called off (Austin’s SXSW the latest to be cancelled) … but that’s far more massive in terms of sardine – packed people than even a group backpacking trip.

Also depends on the virus itself.  Does it linger through summer or disappear in terms of activity?  If it disappears, does it reappear when cold weather returns?  Unknown.

I’m wondering if the school I teach at will close down for a while. I may need to do some backpacking here real soon. :)

… add there’s also bicycle riding, kayaking, motorcycle-riding, etc..

And base jumping and bungie jumping……

Just don’t get hurt because hospitals are likely to be so overburdened that people with other problems, including getting hurt on an adventure, won’t get the care you might need.

If it last into the Summer maybe less crowded National Parks that
have a LOT of International visitors. Think Yellowstone or Yosemite.

Larry

As my mind turns to what is potentially in store for the sick and/or elderly members of my family and community, I’m not exactly inspired to go backpacking…

Even if “only the old and compromised” die this is awful.
Here’s a scary thread

https://mobile.twitter.com/LizSpecht/status/1236095180459003909

Keeping it medical, Dr. Fauci (one of the lead US doctors in this field) said on the Meet the Press show, the next 3 months may call for more “social distancing”, … especially among vulnerable, as a vaccine is worked on.  Summarized here..

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-08/fauci-says-his-sense-on-coronavirus-scope-is-not-encouraging

That’s a very grim thread Kat, thanks for sharing. I get the very, very strong impression that managing political and economic optics are currently more important to our government than an appropriate course of action- and I’m hearing this from friends and family in the health care system, one of whom is an epidemiologist.

And I take absolutely no comfort in the “only the old and compromised” line of thinking that people seem to be throwing around so casually.

Katt’s thread is scary and I’m not taking covid lightly. However, I wonder about this: the author played with the Italy’s 10% number, as here:

“10% of Italian cases that tested positive required ICU stay for acute hypoxia respiratory failure, ie, mechanical ventilation. See where the math goes when you calculate not how many hospital beds, but how many ventilators.”

BUT: remember, cases that are being tested are from walk in hospital patients; i.e. they felt sick enough to go to the hospital. Will 10% of the entire population who gets corona virus require icu stays? I seriously doubt that. I’m guessing the vast majority of those who get this virus or have already had it simply ride it out like a normal flu. However math and statistics is hardly my strong suit and maybe I’m misunderstanding.

the flu looks incredibly deadly and virulent based on the patient sample that shows up severely sick at a hospital. That’s not a real sample of the flu as it’s acting in the world at large (I hope.)

That said, I’m all for going all out prepping supplies for hospital workers and establishing emergency beds and all the rest for the influx that’s likely to show up soon. We should be/have been going all out.

I read that a genetic analysis of the covid bug in Seattle showed that it had been circulating in the population for six weeks. that was about two weeks ago. I haven’t heard of a large uptick in hospitalizations in Seattle, but I may have missed this.

I’m assuming this flu has been circulating for a similar period of time here in the Bay Area. that means a lot people have it. But there are still few tested positives–in this theory, because not that many people have become so ill they required going to the hospital to be tested.

Part of the problem, of course, is that there simply aren’t enough test kits, and won’t be any time soon.

That is about to change.  Maybe……I have it on good authority that the University of Washington virology department has perfected a self test with an 8 hour turn around time and is readying it for distribution.  They intend to manufacture 2000 tests per day and ramp it up from there.  The main obstacle is apparently getting CDC approval.  Who would’ve thought that our premier infectious disease institution would become part of the problem?  Between them and the megalomaniacal sociopath in the White House, we are on the verge of becoming a banana republic, with the public paying the price.

I have three car camping trips planned.  I’m planning to do day hikes at least twice a month.  And I’m looking at some back country permits for the fall.  I don’t anticipate any out of state travel unless this virus is contained.

Here’s how I’m tracking this thing:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

And here’s where I’m getting a medical view on the virus:

https://www.youtube.com/user/MEDCRAMvideos

Thanks for the links Brian. It’s not looking good in Italy.

Yes, it looks grim in Italy. My optimistic scenario may be way off base. I really have no idea how this will all play out.

this is a good explanation

What’s a little frustrating is the influenza vs. Covid dilemma I’m encountering in discussions.  I was speaking with my 75 year old mother tonight about the scenario.  Her default response was “yeah, but the flu kills tens of thousands per year…”

Perhaps influenza patterns should serve as a major warning, not a sign of comfort?

If influenza can kill 35,000+ Americans, cause 500,000 hospitalizations, 15,000,000 hospital visits, and 35,000,000 cases in 2018 despite a robust vaccination program, knowledge of the virus, a shorter incubation period…

And I often have a variety of strangers in my house as I’m doing some remodeling. I pretty much stay in my office while they’re here.