The COVID 19 outbreak. Does it mean MORE backpacking this year?

@kattt thanks for sharing that video, I really liked it, and created my own spreadsheet model from it!

So many things going on here.

• Our responses (how we feel about it, what we think about it, and how that motivates us towards behavioral change)
• What we read/watch from what we view as “authority” or “not authority”)
• What policies and people we have no control over (gov’t, CDC, local health agencies, local business, etc.) are doing to mitigate

Will I go backpacking more? I’m tempted.

I have to admit, some possibly fear-based issues:

• My mom was scheduled for heart surgery last week, she canceled it (on her doctor’s recommendation) because the hospital where she was having her surgery admitted its first Covid19 patient on Monday. My parents live in Seattle, it’s unsettling for them. They are in their upper 70s.
• My dad has a knee surgery scheduled next week. He’s in immense pain. He’s gotta do it to get over this terrible hump. Fortunately, it’s only a day surgery at an outpatient clinic that hasn’t yet admitted a Covid19 patient (to their knowledge). My dad has a history of pneumonia, asthma, and lung compromisation.
• I studied epidemiology and math/statistical modeling of epidemics and pandemics for 2 full years in grad school. Ugh. Ignorance is bliss. These models are really sensitive to people’s behaviors, and with the comms coming from the WH, this doesn’t help. We have some old friends who believe DJT is the messiah (or at least a representative) and believe (by “faith”) this will all end fine. It might. But it might not. It depends on who you know suffers or dies, I suppose. There’s a point at which statistics don’t matter if you’re impacted personally :(
• We canceled our spring break plans to head down to AZ for MLB spring training (we are hopeless SEA Mariners fans, another issue) and are looking at options for warmer temps to exit Laramie and stay away from crowds. Thinking hard about a camping trip now in someplace more remote.
• Our trips to the store are becoming more infrequent, and we’re stockpiling.

I hope the models are wrong.

The biggest problem, IMO, is what we don’t know about the virus (yet).

Since we are retired, we aren’t changing our daily routine much. Having flexible time, we go to public places in off-peak times anyway. However, we won’t be going to the gym for awhile — too much equipment being handled by a lot of people. Plus we have a virus case in our in our area for an individual with no known contact of carriers and who doesn’t travel.

I won’t be an elderly person until my next birthday later this year, so I won’t have to worry about that ;-)

If things start getting worse, as in Italy, it will be a personal financial disaster for many people who could be without a job.

If my wife tries to substitute kisses with elbow bumps, I’m filing for divorce.

Oh, come on Nick. You know you wouldn’t file for divorce because who else would tale you. :)

I think fist bumping family members is futile.  If one of you has it, the other one will also regardless.

For example, there was that doctor in New York.  He infected everyone in his family.

He infected a neighbor and everyone in that family got it.

Another neighbor drove him to the hospital which got the neighbor infected, and then everyone in that family got it.

Fist bumping is dumb. I wipe my nose on the part of my hand that gets fist bumped!

I went to a Civil War reenactment this weekend. The dancers our band played for all wore white cotton gloves. I wonder if that is adequate for the virus.

Will the general public do more backpacking? Probably not. Most of the public does not like backpacking. Hopefully they’ll learn their lesson about cruise ships.

The poor will have to keep using buses to get around. They’ll keep cleaning your offices and manning the cash registers as long as they can.

I’m scared the government will find its gulags, I mean internment camps, I mean immigrant detention centers convenient for handling suspected COVID19 victims. Hell, cruise ships make convenient detention centers. ACLU? Where are you? Can the government really imprison you off shore against your will? Floating Hotel California.

I personally would head out to the Condor Trail or somewhere if I could just stay out there for 2 months, but alas, I do not have that much vacation time. At the very least I can comfort myself with knowing that I am part of the team that provides the solution on campus to what to do about all these students. I provide the solution that can keep them home if that becomes a mandate. At 9AM we have a meeting about this. Of course, this will probably mean more work for me and so I won’t be heading out to the Condor Trail.

There’s no question covid is highly transmissible. My guess is that it’s circulating fairly widely already. the question is also, how powerful is it–in the sense of producing dangerous symptoms and death. It may be relatively unremarkable as a flu for the vast majority of people.

If it’s been spreading like wildfire for six or eight weeks, as the Seattle version has, the fact that the reported number of cases and ICU patients isn’t skyrocketing into the thousands is actually good news. Millions may get it but not have to go to hospital, or no more so than with the common flu.

I don’t know! I’m not frightened yet.

The large Chinese tour groups have cancelled their trips to Yellowstone for the summer, and I am guessing many other groups will also.  That of course presents an economic hardship for the gateway communities that derive income from these groups, but it is a huge WIN for those of us who are healthy and don’t require much in the way of services, just gas and  a block of ice every few days.  Oh, and I guess we’ll still need staff to run the entrance stations, gas stations, and campgrounds.  Sure hope the Parks don’t close.  And yes, this is a totally selfish point of view.

We also have elderly family members that are the prime demographic for serious consequences from this virus, and we have some concern for their health.  They are the ones I worry about.

I’m one of the immuno-compromised, so I find this entire COVID-19 situation unsettling. My husband is blase about the entire thing, but he never gets sick. He does tend to carry bugs home, though, and then I get them even when he shows no symptoms. So I worry. I do hope to spend more time outside and away from people. Plus, the sun is a great disinfectant (UV rays) and boosts our Vit D. Hard not to see an upside to getting outside more. But we’re still in deep winter where I live, so I have to make it a few more months.

The video from 3Blue1Brown posted by Kattt is interesting and enlightening, but leaves out a few confounding factors I can think of, and probably others.

Testing, or lack thereof, really skews the “number of cases” and “number of deaths” reported. Unfortunately, the US is way, way behind many other countries on testing, so we could have many more cases and deaths than we think.

False positive tests and false negative tests also mess with those numbers. I haven’t seen any reporting on those rates.

The overall COVID-19 death rate apparently has been skewed by the very high initial death rate at the origin in Wuhan. They were dealing with the triple-whammy of (1) not (yet) taking effective preventive measures, (2) not (yet) knowing how to treat the disease, and (3) a rapidly overwhelmed medical system. The death rate in non-overwhelmed areas with good health care seems to be much lower than the widely reported 2% to 3% number. Only time will tell if that trend continues, because …

Quarantining mass numbers of medical providers after COVID-19 exposure could backfire badly. Tough choice – fewer cases in the short run vs. more and effective treatment for the sickest people.

Slowing the seemingly inevitable spread of COVID-19 around the world seems like a very good idea. But I’m not (yet) stocking up on supplies and hunkering in the basement. And I’m bringing extra hand sanitizer to GGG this weekend.

— Rex

COVID-19 cases and deaths probably won’t fall neatly in line with an exponential / logistics curve as featured in the 3Blue1Brown video. We’ll likely see bumps and flat lines as the disease spreads irregularly, as testing gets better (or doesn’t), as different containment and treatment methods succeed or unexpectedly fail, and as other wild card factors kick in like viral mutations.

In other words, I wouldn’t rejoice too quickly if we seem to reach the magic “inflection point.” Biology and human nature often confound the predictions of mathematicians and statisticians.

“MORE backpacking is better” bumper stickers shall be issued!

— Rex

I have my own hypothesis about why this virus has hit the Chinese population so hard. All it takes is to look at the high pollution levels in and around the centres of the epidemic and the knowledge that so many people in that area are or were already immune compromised because of it.

It’s possible that many of us had already been exposed to the organism and recovered long before the panic started, especially like myself; who lives in a University town with a huge population of Chinese students who did not go home for the Lunar NY; and who eats at Chinese restaurants being waited on by students etc.

If what I had WAS Covid19 then all I can say it that it’s not as bad as the ‘Flu. I almost died from the ‘Flu last season and I was vaccinated. I am in that damned Old People category and TBH not as fit and healthy as I should be

Dena, that’s sort of like Brenda and I.  She gets really sick from flu, I tend not to.  She is more concerned about this than I am.  I  am really trying to take her concerns seriously.  We are avoiding all public places.  Just go to grocery store once a week, at 11PM when few other people are there, follow 6 foot rule, don’t touch face, use Purell when I get back into car,…

I have a bad habit of touching my face all the time : )

I ordered some extra dehydrated veges.  Eventually use it for backpacking.  In a worst case we could survive on that for a couple weeks.  Along with beans and rice.

On TV they just said they’re doing extensive testing in S Korea.  Not just sick people suspected of being infected.

When you just test sick people, the death rate is 2% or 3%

In S Korea when they have a more representative population, the death rate is less than 1%

Still not good, but not quite as bad.

In quarantined areas the new cases are dropping after a couple weeks.

Things will get better.

Maybe this is a wakeup call about something?  We need strong government agencies to be ready for disasters like this.  We need improved ability to quickly make treatments/vaccines.  Government agencies are not just mindless idiots sucking up economic resources, need to be severely cut, as some people argue.  Political leaders need to oversee agencies to make sure they’re competent and efficient.

But, in a year, we’ll probably go back to sleep and forget all about this.  Maybe Darwinian actions will prune out our species : )

I expect less people to go to NPs this year, and I expect a lot of sales on gear when current inventories don’t sell.

I do think we’re pretty early in this outbreak, but I do expect people to cancel flights going into infected areas like WA and parts of CA.

I’m planning on going to GNP in August, but I have no idea what the state of air travel will be by then.

The only thing that seems certain is that I won’t be eating any mountain house as the preppers bought it all.

“Government agencies are not just mindless idiots sucking up economic resources, need to be severely cut, as some people argue.  Political leaders need to oversee agencies to make sure they’re competent and efficient.”

Ah, Jerry. Political leaders need to oversee agencies to ensure they’re competent and efficient? HAHAHAHAHA!!!! You mean like the competence and efficiency of Congress?

There are, definitely, roles for government, but not nearly as many as we’ve handed over to them. Government gets in the way, or worse, simply develops bad policy skewed toward the wealthy (both groups and people) as much as they are a force for good. Some trimming could do wonders for average Americans.

Call me Polyana?

I agree congress is pretty ineffectual now, not doing their job, mainly using their oversight role to help them get elected, and to pay back the donors so they continue donating

These things go in cycles.  A lot of similarities between today and the 1900 to 1940 period.  Eventually things reset then

“I think fist bumping family members is futile.  If one of you has it, the other one will also regardless.”

Given the primary means of transmission is sneezing/coughing which produces an aerosol mist of micro droplets teeming with the virus, you are at least partially correct.  Transmission via infected surfaces is also a concern, but no one is sure yet how long the virus persists on such surfaces.  It is a matter of ambient temperature, moisture, and the size of the mucous matter containing the virus,  according to Anthony Fauci, a leading expert on viruses and Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

Starting a big hike soon but it’s been the western weather throwing me off.  Not any virus concerns.  On the contrary think one is safer on most trails.  The forum that was Backpacker magazines’ has a retired public health doctor pointing out the eastern Appalachian Trail shelters may not be a good place to hang out, especially for the elderly to camp if crowded.

Not in the most vulnerable groups currently, but I’ll be looking at developments over the next several years if need be to see if this eventually will affect my life.

I think I’m the outlier. Not going to do anything stupid, but not going to spend any time worrying about COVID 19.

Fauci seems to be pretty good.  A lot of experience with epidemics.  Right person for that role now.  Good example of how government actually works pretty good sometimes.

I like how he negotiates the politics.  Media people keep asking him about the inconsistencies between what he’s saying and what Trump is saying.  Fauci dodges those questions and just repeats his recommendation.  So far, Trump hasn’t fired him and replaced him with a Trump loyalist.

The FDA decided that only the CDC should produce the covid-19 test because they didn’t want a lot of different tests, some of which might not be accurate.  The CDC screwed up the first version of the tests delaying their availability.  When asked about this, Fauci said that you always wish you had tests earlier but you just have to focus on doing the best with what you have and didn’t blame anyone.  It seems like he’s had a lot of experience with this sort of problem in the past.

They should just let Fauci be the spokesman and political leaders should shut up.

one tenth of one percent fatality rate for seasonal flu is the universally documented average.

The lowest predicted rate (which assumes the accumulation of enough reliable data) for Covid -19 that I have seen is five tenths of one percent or 500% MORE than seasonal flu. The current highly reliable figures from Italy are much worse.

These fatalities are occurring overwhelmingly in the high risk group of people older than 60 or/and  immuno suppressed.

Look back at Craig’s post. It’s a lot of people. Multiple those annual flu numbers by 5 or 10 or 15. Mothers/fathers, brothers/sisters, grand-parents. Lots of people who have taught, influenced, guided, assisted and loved us all.

The total # tested per the CDC as of March 5 was 1544.

Stay-tuned!

Hearing about Italy right now is heartbreaking. Slowing this down really matters .

BTW. It’s late here on the edge of the eastern ocean and I’m tired. I hope I can find the words to express what I’d like to say in a way that doesn’t end up being offensive so maybe cut me some slack. Or not.

There are now reports that it can take up to 27 days to exhibit symptoms of Covid-19.

In a post on the other cvd-19 thread Jerry pointed out that the guy who started the big outbreak in New Rochelle and Westchester NY first got his entire family sick, then a neighbor came over ( I guess before they exhibited symptoms) and that whole family got sick, then another neighbor drove him to the doctor/hospital and that entire family got sick. And somehow the rabbi got sick and now large numbers of the congregation are sick and Cuomo is calling out the national guard.

The point is you need to take responsibility and do everything you can to avoid catching this thing. There’s potentially a lot of time between getting infected and exhibiting symptoms; time to expose a lot of other people. Lot’s of them may not be heavily affected (@ 85% evidently)

but that other 15%?

This blase attitude…….. well     ?

We all have to take individual responsibility for not getting other people sick.

Some of them may die.

Sorry I can’t really think of a gentler way to put it. Sweet Dreams!

Thank you, obx !  We all need to keep this in mind.

Back in the day when I was taking care of my aging parents, I had to be very careful that the people I worked with who came into work despite being actively ill with colds and flu did not spread their germs to me, not for my sake but for that of my parents.  Sometimes it worked, sometimes not (then I had to stay home or be exceedingly careful around my parents).

Now that ALL my work has been cancelled for the next couple of months (can’t have large assemblies of audience members coming to our performances), my colleagues are understandably stressed with the lack of income (freelance musicians don’t get paid not to work).  But some of them don’t seem to really get that it’s a potential public health nightmare, and that people could die if they got their way and concerts went on as planned.  As sad as it makes me, I do support the decisions by public health officials and symphony management to hold off on concerts for the time being.

I agree ^^^^
Classes for the rest of the quarter have been cancelled at UCSC and some people are complaining that it’s an over reaction. I disagree. Any way we can slow down the peak is worth it because people are indeed dying.