The COVID 19 outbreak. Does it mean MORE backpacking this year?

[Jerry Adams]

they updated New York again, now 5473 new cases, 5085 yesterday, maybe that’s it for today

there’s a delay of about 3 weeks from new cases to requiring ICU beds

states like Florida and Texas should take heed, the longer they delay, the worse it will get

they’ll have to take the economic hit regardless

[BlackHatGuy]

“because honestly I don’t believe anybody really knew or could have known what was coming”

A lot of people did know what was coming, and have been sounding the alarm for years. Obama’s team briefed Trump’s team about just such a scenario during the handover. And trump’s team game planned such a scenario last year (maybe the year before).

So experts have told us that something like this was bound to happen sooner or later, we just never took those experts seriously enough.

[AK Granola]

Bill Gates is not a public health expert, he just isn’t. Superstars and rich smart people who don’t have expertise in public health should not be the source of any information, even if CNN likes to interview them. Trump is not an expert. I think you all know this, but for some reason people keep going back to the advice of people who shouldn’t be giving any. Ah well.

[BlackHatGuy]

I never said he was. But some health experts disagree with other health experts. Some say we’re in for a long haul, others say not so much perhaps. Gates is just repeating what his experts say, he’s not making stuff up on his own.

I think your view is a bit shortsighted. If Bill Gates is giving good info, taken from his experts, and people will listen and perhaps change behavior because it was Bill Gates who told them so, I think that’s a good thing, not a bad thing. Lots of people don’t trust experts as it is. As long as the info is good and helpful, I’m all for hearing it from whoever, especially if that person is well respected and listened to.

[Brad Rogers]

I have every other Friday off of work and since don’t get to backpack as much as I would like (two kids in year round sports), I supplement running with long dayhikes with a fully loaded pack on those Fridays to stay in shape.  The Cumberland Trail runs about 15 minutes from the house so I have three trailheads that I’ve visited from October to the end of April the past two years  and I’ve seen maybe 5 people total on the trail in two years.   The entire family and I went on a hike this past Saturday and we saw 7 people so more people are getting out there, though I still plan on doing my 16 mile Friday this week.  I just have another couple of opportunities to get those long hikes in before it gets too hot and the ticks get too bad.

My big backpacking trip starts July 31 and will require me to fly.  I hope this is all under control by then.

[James Marco]

Yeah, that is the way to go. Trail within 15min walk, not well used…

July is jdoable if you head out and contract COVID right away. There is roughly a 5-6 week recovery from it. Then it would take you at least another two weeks to get back in shape. Flying is iffy. There will be large regions with no virus and other regions that are over it.

Good luck Brad!

[Brad Rogers]

I hope you’re wrong James, but the past few days I see this pandemic lasting longer than I originally thought.  At work we just made arrangements to fully sequester all essential personnel at work working 28 days shifts (then they would have 14 days off and 14 days of quarantine before returning for their next 28 day shift) and be prepared to do that through the summer.

Though I’m sure I’ll lose the money for my flights if I can’t go in July, I have started working on contingency trips for later in the year, perhaps to the Southwest, or if flying is absolutely not an option, finding something within a drive able distance that I can do a week trip on.  This area is really nice in fall, but I’ve done just about everything worthwhile within a 7-8 hour drive multiple times already.

Of course worst case senerio we are in a full lockdown and are not allowed to go backpacking even in the fall.  Of course by that time, backpacking is probably the least of my worries, because our whole economy and society would probably collapse by then.

My wife keeps pushing to book our annual family summer beach trip (I’m not a beach person but that’s what her and the kids enjoy) but I’m quite reluctant to pay $$$ to a resort and airline at this point even if they offer cancellation – they may be bankrupt by the summer if this is still going on.

[Jerry Adams]

Bad idea to get covid19.  There is some risk of it getting so bad you have to go to hospital.  If enough people do this, hospitals will be over-run.  Do everything you can to avoid getting covid19.  It’s the hospital workers we have to think about.

The experts aren’t sure whether getting covid19 will provide immunity from re-infection.  Don’t assume that.

The experts (not just Bill Gates : ) say shutdown will take about one month to get this under control.  Cancel any trips within a month or so.

Then, there will be a period of relaxed social distancing until an effective treatment/vaccine is available.  It’s not clear what controls are necessary during this period.  Maybe some flying would be possible.  There will probably be periodic upticks in the virus and controls will have to be tightened, so don’t make any plans you can’t cancel.

Vaccine maybe ready in a year or 1.5 years.  Then we can go back to normal.

[Jerry Adams]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/24/politics/liz-cheney-trump-coronavirus-tweet/index.html

“There will be no normally functioning economy if our hospitals are overwhelmed and thousands of Americans of all ages, including our doctors and nurses, lay dying because we have failed to do what’s necessary to stop the virus,” Cheney wrote on Twitter.

Liz Cheney is not a medical expert, but neither is she a Democrat party hoaxer : )

“i before e except after c or as sounded as “a” as in neighbor and weigh”

I guess that needs to be amended –  “i before e except after c or as sounded as a as in neighbor and weigh or neither”.  I wonder if there are other “i” exceptions.  I pronounce neither with an “i”.  Do some people pronounce it with an “e”?  Definitely not “a”.

[Jerry Adams]

https://www.wweek.com/news/state/2020/03/25/oregon-health-officials-arent-telling-the-public-how-severe-the-covid-19-outbreak-is-they-should/

Oregon is not releasing info necessary to understand the problem

For example the number of ICU beds and ventilators in use and available

I assume other states are the same

Oregon is working on providing that data.  They don’t have accurate data they can release currently

This is the heart of the problem, how close are we to overwhelming hospitals.  Which areas are closest to capacity so resources can be allocated on a national level.

And communicating this to the population so they understand the problem, thus willing to tolerate the extreme economic effect of the shutdown

[Jerry Adams]

I got one order from Amazon Whole Foods and am in queue for a second order

It takes about 10 attempts spread out over a day to get one that doesn’t say “delivery unavailable”.  They say new delivery slots will be released occasionally over the day.

Going to a store, doing my best to maintain social distancing, seems iffy.  There are a large number of people, too difficult to stay 6 feet away.  How can I go down one aisle when there are people coming the other direction?

If just one person shops for me and many other people, then there is a risk of just one person having to go to the ICU.  Much less likely for the hospital to get over-whelmed.  Amazon whole foods would be able to maintain better conditions than a store open to the public.

I taped $5 to the window so I could keep my distance from the delivery person.

I got one order but it was cancelled because the expiration date on my credit card changed.  I got another order but it was cancelled because it defaulted to an expired credit card, I always have to remember to click on the correct credit card.  I am such an idiot.  It’s tough for us old people to navigate this new high tech world.

[AK Granola]

I get the point on Bill gates, but many people also rely on authorities like Jim Bakker, sure that he will advise them well.  At least all the true medical experts agree on the seriousness of this illness and the need for the public to take action, even if they don’t agree how long that will need to happen.

My freshman students consistently say that all opinions have equal weight, and you just choose the one you agree with most. I have asked this question of every class for the last 10+ years, and asked it in many different ways, and the answer is always the same. One or two seem to understand that there are true experts, true subject authorities, but the rest are more egalitarian; everyone’s opinion is weighted the same. They do not clearly recognize any expert. Where does that leave us in an epidemic?

I wish I had it in me to be unscrupulous and evil. I’m sure I could sell some sort of snake oil right now that would net me millions. But my parents are watching from the grave.

Maybe some of you will enjoy testing your ability to discern true or false, with regard to civil info. Try this:

News Literacy Project

[Jerry Adams]

I like tests

I object to #3 – they presented some graphs but not the source, maybe it was in some fine print I didn’t notice

But, this is a good teaching tool, this should be part of education

People that get a wrong answer sometimes like to argue about some technicality.   The point isn’t really whether to answer correctly or incorrectly but to discuss what the difference is, thanks

 

[BlackHatGuy]

@granolagirlak: I get what you’re saying, and agree with your underlying point. My neighbor, a bus driver for the local transit authority, was given a laminated sheet with COVID-19 tips and such. He was given this at work, as were other drivers. I had to tell him that it was full of misinformation and such (it’s the same info that’s in another thread here). And, of course, lots of people believe the prez, even though he’s a font of misinformation. Part of it goes back to the oft-repeated lament on how we no longer teach our kids how to think critically, but that’s a whole ‘nother thread.

[W I S N E R !]

“Part of it goes back to the oft-repeated lament on how we no longer teach our kids how to think critically, but that’s a whole ‘nother thread.”

Did we ever?  Because, you know, so many of the adults in this country are doing such a stellar job…

 

[Jerry Adams]

I don’t remember being taught critical thinking in 1960s

It was more about things like:

In fourteen hundred and ninety two

Columbus sailed the ocean blue

he sailed and he sailed and he sailed and he sailed

and he made this land for meee and you

[BlackHatGuy]

“Did we ever?  Because, you know, so many of the adults in this country are doing such a stellar job…”

Fair point, and I don’t know the answer. But it’s certainly a skill that’s really lacking in the world right now (not just the US).

[W I S N E R !]

If I may share a hypothesis:

Critical thought requires intellectual humility.  In my experience, humble people typically don’t scream and yell or force their opinions on others.

Meanwhile, for those that like to scream and yell, the social amplifiers have become more powerful, more far-reaching, and more accessible than ever before.

As the screamers and yellers scream and yell, the critical thinkers quietly say to themselves “Well, that doesn’t sound right…”, do some reading, have some quiet discussions, and get shoved off into the sidelines of social relevance.

They’re out there, young and old alike, it’s just very hard to hear them through all of the noise.

[Jerry Adams]

The internet has changed the environment

screamers and yellers are amplified

we haven’t figured out yet how to counter this

 

the pandemic will change everything.  It’s like throwing the pick up sticks on the table and we now will see how they all land

[Edward John M]

“There is nothing quite so believable as a really big lie”

[HkNewman]

Some mountain towns getting hit with it now (for the summer PCT, …Mammoth at 4, neighboring Inyo county just got its first).

Besides tourists, the towns are along the 395 highway between Los Angeles and Reno.

[Adam Kilpatrick]

I’m doing a career change at the moment into Nursing. I’m well into my last year as a Master of Nursing student in Australia. I only have a few weeks of placement to go to register as a Registered Nurse. Our placements were cancelled on day one a couple of weeks ago due to COVID-19. The University is looking at options to reinstate them so that we can register in November and hit the front lines as RNs….chances are they will be able to accelerate thing at least a few weeks so that we can register faster. All classes are going online and we are pretty diligent students (there are only 44 of us in the course). In the meantime I’m getting smashed with work. I’ve been working with people with disabilities doing home support for the last couple of years now, but in Feb I started my new position as an Junior Nurse (one of a few high performing students to get it) at our #1 quaternary hospital…which is now the COVID central hospital for our state. We have 40 COVID-19 patients already (700 bed capacity) and the way things are going on the most hopeful modelling we will be at about 280 patients in 10 days. All non-critical surgery is cancelled and we only take the most urgent non-COVID-19 cases… like we don’t even take strokes now that can’t be treated elsewhere. But there are things like burns, spinal injuries, many strokes and cardiac issues, major trauma, that also has to come to us still. This evening I watched as one of our emergency helicopters flew over my house (I live close) straight there, no doubt with someone critical on board. They are lucky to get in now and not in a few weeks time…

Already I’m getting smashed with shifts, and I’m not even working in the COVID wards yet. I work most everywhere else. The COVID wards are taking over the hospital, and the rest of us are preparing to enter the frontline. The front line will hit us in days and overwhelm us. We will be behind enemy lines for many months with no escape except to become a casualty, and if we survive, we’ll be thrown back in.

There isn’t enough PPE in the country to go for 6 months or so with us using it for all the times we should. Our leaders in Healthcare have already briefed us staff about this. Its serious.  We have to be super diligent. We are probably within weeks of running out. Loads of us will get sick. I don’t see how it will be much better than what is happening in Spain and Italy… where some hospitals already have 20% of their staff sick with COVID-19. Many will die particularly the older more experienced nurses and doctors. In coming months I will hold the hands of many people as they struggle for breath at the end, many of them will be health professionals as well as members of the general public. Their family members won’t be able to be present. I’ve held the hands of people dying before, even in my short career, including from Pneumonia from other causes and COPD. Its not nice.

Please take this seriously. Modelling by seperate researchers in Sydney and London has suggested that we need a dirt minimum 80% compliance in people self-isolating at home in order for this to come to a stop in 6 months time. Its really more like 90% compliance. Spread the word. Don’t let people get away with not taking it seriously.

I’ve set up in my mind a happy place. Maybe I’ll get there after its over. I’m bushwalking, ultralight, off-track for about a week, a light pack on my back, sleeping under the stars each night, cooking pots of rice up on my alcohol stove, working off a simple 1:50k topo and compass, along a mountain range in the Flinders Ranges. It will be magnificent. I’ve always wanted to do a full traverse of it, its quite long and although I don’t think it gets above 700m there’s plenty of thick scrub, and rocky undulating terrain. I’ll be rocking my shorts and gaiters, big hat and sunnies, and no other PPE. I’ll be breathing fresh, clean, non-COVID-19 filled air.

[Jerry Adams]

Thanks for posting that and being willing to step up

[James Marco]

Well said, Adam!

[obx hiker]

Thank you for sharing that Adam Kilpatrick. You hang on to the Flinders Range. Looks like a nice spot for a ramble,

I guess you have to plan around the water sources? Looks like that might be something to consider from “surfing” it with google earth.

Keep holding those hands too.

[Author]

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