The COVID 19 outbreak. Does it mean MORE backpacking this year?

[Jon Fong / Flat Cat Gear]

There have been reports of people robbing the delivery trucks unloding goods to the grocery stores in the early morning hours.  I just hope the hysteria dies down a bit and people take a rational approach to minimizing their exposure to COVID-19.  One can hope.

[jscott]

I just came back from a great hike at Tilden park. It’s finally raining for the first time in over a month. Birds were everywhere on the ground and singing. I’m not a huge fan of Eucalyptus groves but the air was drenched in the scent–pretty nice. there was a break in the rain so even better.

anyway I decided to make a soup so stopped in at Young’s market, which is a tiny independent grocery with a fabulous deli and meat market just a 7 minute walk from my house. I didn’t want to deal with Safeway. Lo and behold Young’s had a new shipment of tp and paper towels. Some people had filled their carts with both. Everyone is local and knows each other, so there’s a shame factor perhaps because most were just buying a package of each, if any. I did too; and then groaned when I got home and realized I already had a nearly full package of each already. I succumbed to tp hysteria!

[Jerry Adams]

Spain just locked down.  All non essential businesses closed.

They are in the exponential growth period.  Based on china and s Korea, it takes about a week for number of new cases to peak, then steeply drop

[Jerry Adams]

We are about half locked down.  Need to step it up, especially in seattle and New York city (and L.A.?).

Too bad we’re not doing more testing so we knew better where to be most aggressive

That’s what they did in China, wuhan especially bad so were more aggressive there

[Jerry Adams]

report from three people in Italy

https://www.wweek.com/news/2020/03/14/three-university-of-oregon-professors-observing-covid-19-in-italy-offer-further-advice-to-oregonians-on-how-to-slow-spread/

if we don’t take drastic action immediately, this could get really bad

if we do, maybe it won’t be that bad

why hasn’t New York closed their schools?

[Edward John M]

I have to assume that most Italians failed to observe the requirements because it was the government telling them what to do and most Italians [ just like almost all Australians] simply do not trust anything the government says.

How prevalent is cigarette smoking in Italy these days and how much of that smoking is above the reported pack a day rate that seemed to be norm in Wuhan?

The noise and false reporting/scaremongering surrounding this outbreak makes it very hard to trust the media at the moment.

Was air pollution around Wuhan a major factor in the severity there/ Does the same apply to Italy? Having just gone through the worst fire period I have ever seen my breathing and lung function is still well below par due to constant smoke exposure for the past 3 months at least equal to or worse than the Wuhan area and that is a tad worrying Most Australians on the East coast have been heavily exposed to bushfire smoke for months and I doubt that factor has been taken into account by our politicians although no doubt our medicos will be aware of it as a factor; even our drinking water tastes of smoke here

[Jerry Adams]

uh oh, does that mean you’re doubting all of this?

if a lot of people don’t take this seriously, don’t socially distance, then the epidemic will continue to accelerate, healthcare workers and hospitals will be overwhelmed

In China and South Korea after social distancing new cases quickly peaked, then dropped steeply.  China and Italy hospitals have been overwhelmed, stories out of there are terrible

If we ignore this until the hospitals get overwhelmed, like they did in China, then it will become more obvious and even the most skeptical will start social distancing.  Better to do it now before things get so bad.

Maybe this is just another epidemic as has happened for 1000s of years.  Doesn’t have anything to do with corrupt governments or pollution or cigarettes, not that those aren’t all problems that exacerbate the epidemic

 

 

[Jerry Adams]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/15/coronavirus-fauci-americans-hunker-down-130035

Fauci seems to have some credibility

“I think Americans should be prepared that they are going to have to hunker down significantly more than we as a country are doing,”

“You know, I would prefer as much as we possibly could,” Fauci responded. “I think we should really be overly aggressive and get criticized for overreacting.”

Here on the left coast they are recommending ending events of groups greater than 250.  Good they’re ending events of groups > 250.  Total B.S. they allow groups of 249.  And close the schools in New York city…

Don’t wait until the hospitals become overwhelmed and then implement

France, Italy, Spain, Israel have all implemented draconian shutdowns

[Jerry Adams]

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/03/13/opinion/coronavirus-cautionary-tale-italy-dont-do-what-we-did/

“A coronavirus cautionary tale from Italy: Don’t do what we did
Many of us were too selfish to follow suggestions to change our behavior. Now we’re in lockdown and people are needlessly dying.”

“An anesthesiologist at a hospital in Bergamo, one of the cities with the most cases of Covid-19, the illness caused by the new coronavirus, told the paper that the intensive care unit was already at capacity, and doctors were being forced to start making difficult triage decisions, admitting people who desperately need mechanical ventilation based on age, life expectancy, and other factors. Just like in wartime. The article was inexplicably placed on page 15, while the main headline on the newspaper’s front page relayed the political quarrels over the measures to curb the contagion.”

“In the days since, overwhelmed hospitals have set up tents as makeshift hospital wards, and cargo containers have been placed at the entrances of medical centers to sort out patients coming at an increasing pace. Some of the people who can’t get medical care are dying in their homes.”

etc.

[Edward John M]

<p style=”text-align: left;”>Jerry I personally take it reasonably seriously for the sake of older people with poor health and those with diminished immune responses but that doesn’t mean I trust my Government one little bit. I the parasites in power told me it was dark outside at night I’d go out and double check.</p>
I personally am not at all worried but I suspect those in power here would be very happy if all the people in nursing care just died and did so quickly. Mass gatherings are now proscribed but I can see Hillsong members disregarding these proscriptions, after all our PM is a member of that cult and thought the recent gathering was no threat to the nations health and well being, so I think Australia is well on the way to delayed crash.

[Jerry Adams]

I agree, the government has squandered their credibility, many examples

Maybe covid19 is such a major shock that we can reset, start over, this shows how we need an effective government

[BlackHatGuy]

“this shows how we need an effective government”

You are certainly consistent Jerry, I’ll give you that.

[Renais A]

One of the potentially longer term impacts of this virus in our area is that folks are having a renewed appreciation of the rural and suburban lifestyle. The notion that we should concentrate our populations in big cities is far less attractive when the increased exposure to various diseases is taken into consideration.  We already have a number of new developments that started in the last couple years within easy commuting distance of major employers.  It will be interesting to see what develops in the next few years.  Lowered urban densities might be one of the positive outcomes.

[Marie]

This is my first post here, but this is important, and I am not going to leave many sources. This should be common knowledge and something all should have been paying attention to for years.

The economy is about to crash. This is a lot more than the virus. The economy is not crashing because of COVID. If you know anything about economics, our debt is not sustainable, and there have been articles for years warning people.

There are thousands of warnings like this all over the internet. If you pay attention to the bond market and oil prices, this is simple. They literally injected 1.5 TRILLION dollars into the stock market the other day. They have been making moves like this for years.

“A majority of the ultra-wealthy expect a recession by 2020 and are hunkering down, says UBS survey”
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/24/a-majority-of-ultra-wealthy-expect-a-recession-and-are-hunkering-down.html

“New York Federal Reserve injects $1.5 trillion into markets amid coronavirus chaos for stocks”
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2020/03/12/coronavirus-new-york-federal-reserve-stock-market-liquidity/5032970002/#:~:text=

That and other drastic measures have been taken (lowering interest rates) and none of them are keeping the market propped up. It’s not working.

There are no shipments coming into the US. Please go to your local grocery store and ask them if they are getting deliveries, and they likely are not. You can look up how dead the shipping ports are.

You can look over the years and see this has been coming for a very long time. Why do you think people prep? Every year there are less and less crops being produced. I am not crying climate change (not real), nor do I have a political party. I love humanity.

Jerry, you are very naive because you are asking for our country to become like China. Should we tracked like they are in China and have social credit scores? Maybe we should be tracked incase we are infected. We are half way there.

There is a lot going on other than this that I won’t even get into. I don’t think you should trust me or anyone. I am just some random person, but you can do some research. It would be wise to stock up.

[HkNewman]

overwhelmed hospitals have set up tents as makeshift hospital wards

Think that’s why there’s all the alarm.  This is about the shortage of ICU beds even in the US by policy, more efficient and the threat was drug resistant bacteria.  Not about to make a dent in the population of 1.2 billion Chinese or 330 million Americans (so far anyways). Don’t think anyone saw COVID coming, except in the evolutionary musings of some biologists (but labwork pays the bills).  That’s one for Chaff though.

To dechaff this, what this means for anyone getting into an accident (including a backcountry accident), is there may not be an ICU bed if all occupied by COVID patients.   Remember mild for COVID can means pneumonia, which doesn’t sound all they mild to me (ymmv).

On the flip side, if I stay safe inside instead of backpacking and make enchiladas, accidentally burning myself, having a heart attack due to cheese overdose, etc … then I’ll take up a bed anyways.   Gets into safety philosophy where I don’t want to go.

[Monte Masterson]

It’s no big deal. Viruses and plagues have been around for millennium. The Black Death and AIDS come to mind off hand (among many). Smallpox did more than guns to wipe out Native Americans. Used to be that viruses kept the world population in check, but now modern medicine has made huge death tolls almost non-existent. So what you have is almost 8 billion people on a planet that’s been ravaged by human activity. Just look at plastic in the oceans, global warming, deforestation, water pollution, etc, etc. Too many people.

Regarding the economy, I don’t see why anyone is surprised. Trump’s trillion dollar tax cuts for the rich drove the deficit up even further, Sure, the tax cuts did a little to boost the economy, but it’s like a cheap sugar high that you pay for on the back end. Similar to a $25,00 credit card debt that you now can’t even make the minimum payments on. You can only run and delay for so long. The day comes when you have to face up.

The stock market was way over inflated. Some of the same risky, deceitful banking practices of 2008  have made their way back into practice. But look at American values….greed, materialism, image, and celebrity worship are paramount, It’s all about the money and we wonder why suicide rates, loneliness and all around peace of mind have diminished.

When I see people out buying up everything in a panic, it reminds me of how all forms of media whip people up into a hysteria. The masses are like lemmings. Brainwashed herds sheep who get their dose of reality through TV and the internet.

[Monte Masterson]

Darn short editing window. Lost internet for about 15 minutes and couldn’t make changes above. I meant to write $25,000 in credit card debt and suicide rates and loneliness have gone up.

[Jerry Adams]

They’re now closing bars and restaurants in Oregon and Washington.  They lowered the maximum group number from 250 people to 50.  New York City closed schools.

We’re going in the right direction on making extreme enough measures to avoid overwhelming hospitals.  Some hope.  We’re lucky that China and Italy went first so we can avoid that.

The news conferences still have lines of officials right next to each other violating social distancing rules.

Stay 6 feet away from others

If you touch any surface that someone else could have touched or sneezed on, don’t touch your face until you wash your hands.

[Jerry Adams]

Marie, I remember reading Howard Ruff – Famine and Survival in America (1974), How to Prosper During the Coming Bad Years (1979), Survive and Win in the Inflationary Eighties (1981), Making Money (1984), and other books. He re-released his most successful book, re-titling it How to Prosper During the Coming Bad Years in the 21st Century (2008).

He made a lot of money telling us that a crash was coming.  He is just one of many.

I bought several gold coins, maybe a little because of Ruff, mostly just to diversify.  After quite a few years someone I know got burgled, and it occurred to me that statistically, eventually someone might take my coins.  The price of gold was up so I sold them, about doubled my money.  Theoretically, I could have avoided paying taxes, but I don’t admit to doing crimes on the internet.  Even taking into account avoiding taxes, I would have made a lot more if I had invested in the stock market.  Like 4 times as much.

I’ve read “The Mother Earth News” for decades.  I sort of fantasize doing the homesteading thing.  Probably better as a fantasy than actually doing it, although that would make a pretty good life.  That could accomplish some of the same benefits as being a prepper.

I wish you well

[BH]

Maybe covid19 is such a major shock that we can reset, start over, this shows how we need an effective government

“Effective government” is an oxymoron. Unaccountable, bloated bureaucracies are terrible at almost everything.

[Rex Sanders]

St Patrick’s Day, March 17, 2020, starts a three-week “shelter in place” order where I live, restricting meetings and travel except for a long list of essential activities. Among those: walking, hiking, or running while complying with Social Distancing Requirements. My wife and I will continue our walks on the beach, and my longer day hikes and solo backpack trips seem to be permitted.

No restaurants, coffee shops, casual shopping, movie theaters, meeting with friends, in-person classes and religious services, or working away from home for a while. Relatively small sacrifices for some, life-altering for far too many.

I hope shelter in place works. I hope testing ramps up very fast. I hope we flatten the curve, at least locally, so our health care systems aren’t overwhelmed. I hope the global economy recovers quickly. The alternative will be horrible.

[Looks like BPL doesn’t support animated GIFs anymore. Click the picture to see the animation.]

The latest studies say you can be infected and contagious without symptoms, triggering more than half of new infections. No matter where you live or how healthy you feel, please practice social distancing now, mostly stay home, and wash your hands frequently for at least 20 seconds(*). You will help save lives, probably of people you know and love.

— Rex

* Why 20 seconds? That’s how long it takes soap to kill most bacteria and viruses. Soapy water should cover your hands for 20 seconds before rinsing.

[Larry Swearingen]

Soap doesn’t kill viruses. It just acts as a surfactant to help wash them away
from your hands and down the drain.

Larry S

[JCH]

“Soap doesn’t kill viruses.”

This does not seem to be completely accepted as fact…

TLDR; “So why does soap work so well on the Sars-CoV-2, the coronavirus and indeed most viruses? The short story: because the virus is a self-assembled nanoparticle in which the weakest link is the lipid (fatty) bilayer. Soap dissolves the fat membrane and the virus falls apart like a house of cards and dies – or rather, we should say it becomes inactive as viruses aren’t really alive.”

[MJ H]

Soapy water should cover your hands for 20 seconds before rinsing.

That’s getting real old too. I can’t wait until we don’t need to do that anymore.

[Jenny A]

There are some definite positives to everything.  The neighborhood is full of kids outside on bikes, trampolines, basketball courts, doing KID THINGS.  Neighbors who can’t go to their office or place of work are out walking dogs and taking strolls and chatting (6 feet apart, of course).  It’s quieter, less traffic noise and small plane noise.  The air is a bit cleaner and fresher.  People seem more patient and polite.  Congress is being forced to work together for the good of the people and country – bless ’em for trying.

I’m no Pollyanna.  Our daughter and her boyfriend have 3 jobs between them, all of which are done for the season (Big Sky) or shut down (restaurant).  The losses in the stock market may hit pretty damned hard in the near future.  My place of work is shuttered for at least another 10 days and probably longer.  I also suspect that the veneer of civilization is pretty thin, but things are holding pretty well for now.

Interesting times indeed.

 

 

 

 

 

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