The COVID 19 outbreak. Does it mean MORE backpacking this year?

[W I S N E R !]

Tom Kat & Jerry

Sorry, couldn’t resist.  ; )

[Kattt]

Can’t blame you. I am the one that can’t resist…

[Sam C]

Everyone finds their favorite person who has “a” set of statistics that confirms a pre established hypothesis–or fantasy, more likely. And then crowds go running after this new set of numbers.

No stats–no numbers–tell the story accurately at this point in time.

@jscott:

The numbers are the numbers and while you can always manipulate the numbers to conform to a bias, there are in general established statistical analysis methods that are commonly used.  Essentially; plug and chug.

We have numbers from reported cases.  We know of those confirmed that some present no symptoms or only mild symptoms.  How can you then calculate how widespread Covid-19 truly is?  You can’t because many carrying Covid-19 may not even know it.  That’s the whole point of the social distancing.  But you can estimate.

SARS killed 10% of those infected.  MERS killed 34% of those infected.  So far Covid-19 has killed more people than both SARS and MERS combined, but only because there are more cases of Covid-19 than SARS and MERS combined.  I have seen numbers putting China at 15.6% mortality rate and globally so far, including China, at 5.7% or so.  As mentioned by Jerry, China had an initially high mortality rate, which waned significantly once they figured out what was going on.  Dr. Fauci of the NIH has estimated that mortality rates from Covid-19 may ultimately come down to 1-2%.

That does not mean that you or I or him or her are in the clear, though.  A small percentage of a large number is still a large number.  Keep in mind that 1% if the U.S. population is still 3.27 million people give or take.  Of course not everyone will be infected, but you get the point.

We also know that Covid-19 likes to hang out in the throat, at least initially.  The consequence is then that Covid-19 can more easily spread to the air simply by breathing instead of coughing or sneezing. Once again, a reason for distancing.

Something else to think about:  a virus is a parasite and parasites really don’t want their host to die.  The more deadly a virus, the less likely it will spread.  From an evolutionary perspective, that’s not very practical.

 

[jscott]

we derive the current numbers for mortality rate based on total number of cases of those who test positive. those tests aren’t being given to the population at large or to all those who have a flu but stay home. The tests are being given to those who show up in some form of distress at a hospital. So again, the mortality rate is being derived from a subset of particularly sick people who have the flu. That drives the mortality rate higher among this small subset of people than it is for the population at large.

I’ve seen MANY different statistical analyses that gave completely different conclusions about any number of things concerning Covid. I don’t think we have enough raw data to come to firm conclusions.

I jsut saw an interview with a mayor who has tested positive. He’s asymptomatic.

[W I S N E R !]

Hope everyone is well in your household Kat.  Not trying to ruffle your feathers, just trying to inject a little humor….

[Jerry Adams]

which one is Kat and which one is Jerry?

I used to play tennis, partners with someone named Tom.  Back when that cartoon was more current.  For some reason people teased us about it.

[jscott]

yes, how are the patients feeling today?

[Sam C]

@jscott,

A model is only as good as the input of known information.  Of course, we don’t have enough raw data as of yet but you can go by what is known and draw conclusions.

I am not disagreeing with you that there are many out there presenting as asymptomatic.  In the end, this could be proven the case.  These next few weeks will be the most critical.

[jscott]

Sam, I agree 100%. sorry I went off on another tangent.

[Jerry Adams]

My daughter just back from Trader Joe’s.  A lot of bare shelves.  No toilet paper of course.  Or Purell.  Stuff like canned food was pretty cleaned out.

She then went to Fred Meyer’s – same thing.

Safeway said they had a shipment that included toilet paper but sold out late afternoon.

Maybe this is self fulfilled prophecy, whatever.  You have to plan your food shopping.

[Jerry Adams]

I wonder what’s happening in Italy, they seem to be a week or two ahead of us.

Are they able to go to the grocery store and buy food?  Toilet paper?

[Kattt]

I kid you not .

[W I S N E R !]

He’s gonna be the death of you… ; )

 

 

[Jerry Adams]

Uh oh, digging hole again?

[Jerry Adams]

Some tv show this evening

Wuhan started draconian actions when things got really bad, then pretty quickly new cases peaked, then exponentially dropped

If we implement the draconian actions now before things get so bad, new cases will peak and quickly drop

Don’t wait until things get so bad, learn from china

Close schools, all non essential businesses or groups of people.  People stay 6 feet apart.  Wash hands and don’t touch face…

Too bad were barely doing any testing so we could know just where we have to be especially strict

Were taking a lot of actions already, just need to step it up

[Jerry Adams]

was it the comment about toilet paper?

I read that toilet paper is always the first thing to go in a grocery store run.  God damn if that isn’t exactly what happened, those shelves were bare.

My theory is that toilet paper is an “indicator species”.  When you can go into a store and there’s toilet paper on the shelf, then you’ll know things have returned to normal.

Purell is another.  There was still bleach and other disinfectants though,maybe people only hoard one or two bottles of bleach.

[jscott]

Indicator species? I think you mean “Corona in a coal mine.”

wait, ‘coronary in a coal mine’, which is when you realize there’s no tp while doing your business in the dark.

[Jerry Adams]

good one : )

 

[Jerry Adams]

study just out

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/14/811609026/the-new-coronavirus-can-live-on-surfaces-for-2-3-days-heres-how-to-clean-them

they tested the covid-19 virus.  Previously, all I’ve read is things like “there’s no evidence” or “we don’t know”

covid-19 virus can survive 2 days on cardboard, 3 days on hard surfaces like stainless steel and plastic

unlikely to be transmitted on food, but worry about the utensils and plates.  and doorknobs if you’re in public place

so, Nick, you probably don’t need to worry about washing your banana, although if someone sneezed on it in the store???  maybe treat like a hard surface just to be safe

soap and water is a good cleaner to remove any virus from surfaces.  bleach.  60% alcohol.  there’s a list of other suitable cleaners

the testing was done at 22C (72 F), 40% RH.  coronaviruses die quicker at warmer temperatures and slower at cooler temperatures.  they just said the viability time (2 or 3 days) could be different at different temperatures and humidities

if you bought stuff at the grocery store you could just let it sit in quarantine for 3 days and you wouldn’t have to worry about it

getting virus from stuff at the grocery store, or mail, is unlikely, much more likely is from being near and infected person or getting it from a doorknob or whatever

[BlackHatGuy]

“so, Nick, you probably don’t need to worry about washing your banana, although if someone sneezed on it in the store???  maybe treat like a hard surface just to be safe”

Let’s keep this family friendly, shall we?

[Ken Thompson]

I was at Winco at five this morning. It is usually a couple of customers. Busy this morning. Everyone stocking up  on tp, beans, rice, frozen meat, alcohol. Interesting enough marijuana sales are up according to an associate.

[MJ H]

covid-19 virus can survive 2 days on cardboard

Just run all your cardboard through the dishwasher.

[Jerry Adams]

what?  there was TP at Winco??  Which one???

(I live in Portland, Ken Chico, lots of dark humor possible)

[Jerry Adams]

I woke up at 4AM, Brenda was awake

I said there were probably going to be mobs of people going through the neighborhood, breaking into people’s houses to get TP.

Brenda, ever the trooper, added that the TP she bought was in the garage, visible from outside.

I had to get up anyway to relieve myself.  Willing to go to extremes just to get a laugh,  I got the TP out of the garage so people wouldn’t be able to see it.

We couldn’t stop laughing

Okay, I promise, no more TP jokes : )

[d k]

My sister, who has been watching news obsessively, texted me yesterday that they had my local Costco on the news yesterday; lines going around the building to get in, and some guy stole TP from a shopper coming out of the store and drove away with it.

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