The COVID 19 outbreak. Does it mean MORE backpacking this year?

[James Marco]

Karen, yes, I remember getting my polio shot in 1956.  I got al ready to get a shot and they simply gave me a sugar cube instead. I had some friends who had polio and were crippled with badly distorted legs.

In this case the overall results will be similar, not so much in effect, but in the drama of having and distributing the vaccine. Within a year, everyone simply stopped mentioning polio as a disease and simply talked about the cure. But, the vaccine  was a while in being prepared and a full year of trial was endured before it was released.

The comparison breaks down today, because of the extreme communicability of  COVID19. We do not have a year to play with as a species. Our upper 1/3 of the population will be hardest hit with as many as 20% of those resulting in fatality or disability. Unfortunately, this means our Doctors, since most are approaching their 40′ s before they even start practicing (36.8 avg for a surgeon.)  This indicates a loss of stability in society we have not seen in 100 years as we loose the stabilizing influences of the older generation (many modern households have returned to the old style Grandparents-as-child-rearers) and a potential loss of medical professionals at an even higher rate.

Anyway, I am not sure this is a good thing, or a bad thing. Just different.

[HkNewman]

Another thought is even flattening the initial curve up in cases  countries will still be fighting intermittent viral outbreaks for 18 more months at a minimum (assuming a vaccine is ready, etc..).

Looks like we will go through with whatever strategy, but when it comes to longer distant backpacking, more info will be needed.  I think localish overnighters that are “low-risk” will be fine.

[HkNewman]

Note: the above 18 mo window from an article in the NE Journal of Medicine calling to “Crush the Curve”  – won’t get into it here.

[obx hiker]

It’s pretty simple really. Viruses rely on us to survive*1. We carry them about. We spread them.

We must have masks and we must have testing if we are to leave our homes and move about with any reasonable degree of safety; and not just currently but for MONTHS to come.

There must be strict requirements about wearing masks in public. People should not be allowed to enter a building/confined space/ anywhere you could exhale/cough/spray while talking*2/sneeze one of those parasitic complex molecules onto a surface without a mask, excepting home/personal vehicle.

Absent a vaccine this is the only way to maintain any degree of mobility and slow the thing down while we await that vaccine. Do this and the woefully inadequate testing*3 may catch up.

*1. Viruses are not living things. Viruses are complicated assemblies of molecules, including proteins, nucleic acids, lipids, and carbohydrates, but on their own they can do nothing until they enter a living cell. Without cells, viruses would not be able to multiply. Therefore, viruses are not living things.

*2. Most of you have headlamps. Try standing 2 persons from the household perpendicular to a whitish wall in the dark facing each other about 6 feet apart while you with the headlamp stand back @ 5 feet with the beam on the wall and have them engage in an animated conversation while you observe what flies around.

*3.  ANY stats we are currently viewing are totally inadequate in the absence of widespread testing. (read Nate Silver on this here)  We currently officially have ? 350K cases? We have tested (reportedly) @ 1,700,000? Supposedly most of those tests are only administered to people showing symptoms OR maybe having close exposure to a known case. Hmmm. I’ll make a prediction here. Based on population size and almost total lack of testing or any distancing, closings etc until very recently; Florida looks like a time bomb.

Home of the brave, land of the free with a home, home on the range.

( these are not intended to be discouraging words  :)

[Jerry Adams]

yeah, I read that Nate Silver piece – all of the data they publish is suspect

I think that deaths are more accurate, although they could categorize covid deaths as something else.  But deaths are a lagging indicator.

If reported cases starts dropping, and then several weeks later deaths start dropping, and ICU beds starts decreasing, then we’re accomplishing something.

When they get close to zero, we should be able to start opening things back up.  Businesses should be re-opened.  Schools next fall.  Be vigilant and prepared to tighten back up if new infections start happening.  Check/quarantine people coming from an area that’s active.  What they’re doing in China.

[Kattt]

It was clear from the start that telling us we don’t need masks was ONLY about keeping people from taking masks that would be needed by heath care providers. I did not buy it for a minute.
I have now made almost 300 masks and donated 280 of them.

[obx hiker]

^^     :)   280 That’s really impressive. Thanks..

[obx hiker]

Speaking of not being fooled for a minute. The president has said he expects 100K to 200K fatalities several times recently. Considering that he (or his “team”) has access to better information than X anyone in the world……

Also considering that everything he says or does could/should be considered in the light of getting in the best position possible for November; the tenor and messaging of the daily press briefings might be translatable or subject to some potentially useful interpretation. Maybe. Who knows.

It’s the models.  ” Waves hands in a curvy motion. “Not that I know anything about models; or not that kind of model”

Or the kind that “models” behavior?

[Roger Caffin]

Considering that he (or his “team”) has access to better information than X anyone in the world…
Very doubtful.
Do you think that his ‘advisors’ will tell him anything he does not want to know? He has fired most of his effective security/intelligence people, and most of his pandemic experts/committees. After all, he has ‘hunches’.

Cheers

[Edward John M]

It was clear from the start that telling us we don’t need masks was ONLY about keeping people from taking masks that would be needed by heath care providers. I did not buy it for a minute.
I have now made almost 300 masks and donated 280 of them.

280 is very impressive Congratulations on doing such a good job.
Being lied too about mask wearing in public is one of the reasons the virus spread so quickly as was the false information that home made masks are ineffective

[Kattt]

Thank you .

 

That lie amounted to criminal behavior. Plain and simple.

[BlackHatGuy]

I can’t believe that we were lied to by our governments. Can’t be true, since our governments save us! We need more government to save us even better! Must be fake news.

[Roger Caffin]

> I can’t believe that we were lied to by our governments.
They weren’t ‘lies’, they were ‘alternate facts’.

Cheers

[Jacob]

Its not a matter of ‘lying about masks.’

Masks and respirators are different things.

All of the ‘misinformation’ you’ve heard has simply been people not understanding the semantic difference between ‘mask’ and ‘respirator’ and/or telephoning that misunderstanding from another source.

Practically speaking, respirators seal to your face forcing the air you breath to travel through filtering media while masks don’t. In terms of regulations/liability the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH), under authorization of the Occupational Safety and Health Act of 1970, provides a testing, approval, and certification program assuring respirators used in the workplace meet the standards of 42 CFR Part 84; including providing a ‘TC approval number’. This is the official American list of approved respirators  https://www2a.cdc.gov/drds/cel/cel_form_code.asp

There is an easier to search version here: https://wwwn.cdc.gov/niosh-cel/

For more information on respirators see:

https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/npptl/topics/respirators/disp_part/default.html

https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/npptl/respusers.html

https://www.osha.gov/pls/oshaweb/owadisp.show_document?p_id=12716&p_table=STANDARDS

For more information on masks try wearing a bandanna and see what you think.

[Kattt]

“Masks and respirators are different things.”

You don’t say…

We’ve   just been told by the CDC that after “new findings” ( sure…) they are now recommending masks/ face covering in public.

What you bring up is a separate issue.

[Kattt]

FWIW I have a respirator that I used for (brush) painting Imron. I am familiar with the difference.

[Jacob]

If someone did a study that showed masks are effective against infectious disease that is news.

There are people paying out workers comp claims as we post this because face masks as of winter 2019 were known not to prevent infectious disease/ small particulate poisoning.

[Kattt]

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/cloth-face-cover.html

they “just now” discovered that asymptomatic carriers can spread the virus.

We have all known this for over a month now. Having everyone wear a mask ( even fabric) would have helped the spread.

[Kattt]

Of course masks and respirators and not the same.

If I used a mask when I painted my truck I would have ended up in the hospital. Even a respirator has its limits if the particulates are misted, which I why I painted with a brush out in the open.

[Edward John M]

I know the difference between a face mask and a respirator too. Face masks work, respirators simply work better but I’m not going to waste a $40- respirator cartridge or use a $25- bushfire respirator when a $1- cotton face mask that can be washed and sanitised will work effectively to stop community transmission
A 3 layer cotton face mask that fits well is close enough to the P1 respirator in real life performance in the public space scenario and it simply makes sense to use the cheaper option in public and save the P1/P2/P3’s for hospital and emergency services use

[obx hiker]

^^ Bingo and thanks. Some last few comments were a text book case of tunnel vision or enshrining the perfect as the enemy of the perfectly good.

[Jerry Adams]

Somebody said that expensive masks like n95 are better for the wearer, but actually not good at protecting us from the wearer.

Multi layer of fabric is actually better

The point of people wearing masks is to protect us if the wearer is asymptomatic

[James Marco]

Currently most homemade masks only help at about 50% to 75% of a standard M95 mask A simple bandana works to catch larger aerosolized droplets but not so well with fine ones., about 50% of a M95 mask (the standard.)  I read this somewhere in my research into making masks.

Heppa filters sandwicthed between two high thread count cotton fabrics work at about 90% of M95 results.  Masks will not stop the spread of air vectored viruses. The viruses are simply too small. Even M95’s will not stop viruses absolutely.

The more layers means more restrictive breathing, but not better filtering. Filtering is based on pore size, much the same as water filters. Example, if a 0.2micron bug can penetrate a Sawyer filter, using two, three or four filters will still not catch the bug.  But, using 4 filters will definitely slow the flow rate.  The same for a mask. If it can penetrate a 5micron particle size with one layer, adding three or four layers will not help catch it, but it will slow the air flow to your lungs.

They will catch aerosolized droplets in the air, ie, a virus with many molecules of water attached. As these dry out, they get smaller until just the very tiny virus remains.

It is killed by heat at roughly 56C, or 133F. So, simply dip your mask in water, then microwave it for 30sec on high to kill the COVID19 virus. To bad we can’t heat people up that warm.

Basically, avoid meeting in rooms. If you are going to have a meeting, make it outdoors. Maintain social distancing of AT LEAST 6′, 10′ would be better.  People in the same household can skip social distancing with each other.

There are NO treatments for the COVID-19 infection. Only symptoms can be treated.

[Kattt]

A mask is better than no mask. That’s it.

[Edward John M]

Marco you are neglecting edge filtration in that assumption. But I never said they were a perfect match for a P3, just almost as good as a P1

[Author]

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