The COVID 19 outbreak. Does it mean MORE backpacking this year?

[Jerry Adams]

thinking about that back of envelope calculation – 50% of population – 160 million infections – 1.6 million deaths

long before that, the hospitals will be overwhelmed

from Larry’s medium article, there are 100,000 ICU beds, 5% of infections require an ICU bed, so when there are 2 million infections we’ll reach the maximum capacity of hospitals.  There will be 20,000 deaths eventually

but when that capacity is reached, things will get so bad that we’ll quit denying it and take aggressive suppression actions.  Maybe there will be another 2 million infections before the suppression yields results.  The death rate will be 5% on those because they don’t have ICU beds so there will be another 100,000 deaths.

if we take aggressive suppression now, maybe we can avoid this overwhelmed phase, that’s the main take-away

those are just back of envelope calculations, use your own numbers if you wish, the take-away is the same – aggressive suppression needed immediately

 

[Jenny A]

Well, Rocky Mountain National Park is officially closed as of this evening, according to the Denver Post. https://www.denverpost.com/2020/03/20/rocky-mountain-national-park-closes-coronavirus-estes-park/  The local community of Estes Park was concerned about being overwhelmed by sick visitors.

At least here we have some other mountains to recreate in.  So far.  The Park will be there when this ends.

[d k]

Yosemite as well.  Now I can’t even realistically fantasize about driving up there…

[Larry M]

The next 5:31 might save the lives of people you know. Be informed, be safe.

Literally ever person in the United States needs to watch this.

PLEASE RETWEET pic.twitter.com/3IglZtOVgL

— Scottacular (@Scottcrates) March 21, 2020

[Jerry Adams]

good video, thanks, that explains things

[Eric Blumensaadt]

Wellll… I’m “elderly” I guess. I’ll be 77 April 4 but I plan to backpack my nearby Spring Mountains several times his summer and maybe drive to Lamoille in northern Nevada and backpack the Ruby Trail as well.

BUT, there will be no motels to stay in (all closed) so I’ll sleep in the back of my MAZDA CX 5 SUV instead.

[Jerry Adams]

I’ll try posting this again, hopefully it won’t crash the site again : )

Dr. David Ho, epidemiologist, says to look at new cases each day – leading indicator.  Deaths follow a couple weeks later.

China – no new cases for three days, they’ve eased up on the shutdown – that’s what we have to look for if we can beat this, maybe a month from now

Italy is a week or two ahead of us:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

They did a shutdown, new cases stabilized but then they increased some so they didn’t have a tight enough shutdown, they’re increasing it.

U.S.:

We are in the exponential growth phase. The last day new cases didn’t increase as much but that’s probably just random.  Since we’re behind on testing, there are probably a lot more new cases not in those numbers.

We’ve just barely implemented shutdown.  We need to do much more.  Even if we tightened completely, number of new cases will continue increasing for a week or so.

Hospitals are beginning to reach capacity.  There are going to be some terrible stories about working conditions for hospital workers, having to choose who dies,…

I saw on TV a skiing competition from the Sierras where they were hugging each other, spectators right next to each other.

When conditions at hospitals get bad enough, we’ll be forced to do complete shutdown, but there’s a time delay before new cases peak and then drop.

Better to do the complete shutdown now.  It’s for the hospital workers and those of us unfortunate enough to require ICU.

 

[Eric Blumensaadt]

Thanks Jerry. Very “graphic”. (Sorry, it was just dangling there in front of me.)

The problem is that the US does not even have the critical care beds OR the ventilators per 10,000 patients that Italy does. We are SO screwed if  people don’t self-quarantine properly!

SO… I’m really wondering when Trump will order regular military and National Guard & Reserves to begin setting up their field hospitals where the governors request. Yes, they are mainly for trauma but can be easily “repurposed” for COVID 19 patients. A ventilator for trauma is the same as one for acute respiratory failure from a virus. ‘Nuf sed

 

[BlackHatGuy]

That’s already happening.

National Guard activated to combat coronavirus.

[Chris H]

Wouldn’t begin to draw any conclusions from either of those graphs.  You need to know # of tests given and # of positive results over whatever timespan to even begin to draw any conclusion about where things stand.

Not saying things aren’t serious.  Or that they are or are not going to get worse.  Or that we don’t need to do more to contain this crap.  Just saying the numbers are not useful.  It’s just math.

[Ryan Jordan]

Here’s why those graphs are important, and here’s why Chris’ response is also important.

If a virus can effectively hide in asymptomatic carriers and we don’t aggressively test, we screwed. This is, like, epidemiology 101.

We not only don’t aggressively test here in the US, we are now discouraging testing for sympomatic carriers because of test bandwidth issues.

This illustrates why testing of a broader (asymptomatic) population is essential, and why asymptomatic persons should practice aggressive isolation:

https://www.ft.com/content/0dba7ea8-6713-11ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3

[Jerry Adams]

I’m not going to update this every day, but it’s possible new cases have peaked in the U.S.

look at China:

They appeared to peak on Feb 4, but there was a much bigger spike on Feb 12.

Anything could happen in the U.S., but we are taking some shutdown and social distancing actions.  Maybe it’ll be enough.  Doesn’t seem like it though.  Have to look at this in a week or so and it will be more clear.

Also, we’re not doing much testing yet but if we suddenly ramped that up, there could be a huge spike in new cases but it would just be a measurement artifact

You can see a couple weeks or so after new cases peaked, deaths peaked.  Also people in the hospital.

Even if shutdown/social distancing is perfect, things will get much worse for a couple weeks or so.

[obx hiker]

I’d be careful about reading too much into any drops that occur around weekends. Could just be a drop in reporting. There’s a pattern like that on the Italy graph as well only their drops seem to occur on Mondays.

 

Wait for the larger pattern to emerge.

[obx hiker]

^^^ Paywall Ryan  ^^^ Guess this might be a good time to try the 4 weeks for a buck option but the trouble with most of those is the vendor gets your CC info and then the subscription automatically kicks in if you don’t remember to expressly cancel.

Life is getting complicated enough. This household and business is aggressively distancing and working out patterns to safely engage with vendors, contractors, clients and customers. Lots of puzzles to solve.

Thanks for all you provide with this platform! While I’ve received lots of good info from subscriptions with Atlantic Monthly and the NYT This site has actually been consistently the BEST source of  accurate and relevant information. It’s a great community!

Thanks to all of you our there!

[Jerry Adams]

Yeah, definitely obx, wait a week for a pattern

Another from that same website:

New York is really getting hammered.  California, Louisiana, Florida, Texas,…

Hopes and prayers to everyone…

[jscott]

I think that everyone here understands that the ‘spike in new cases’ are a reflection of increased testing. And that there are far more cases ‘out there’ than have been confirmed by testing–because we lack tests in the U.S. and because many people are asymptomatic or only mildly symptomatic and so not going to hospital.

In other words, the numbers are about more tests being given. I think the graph shouldn’t act like it’s reporting new cases–it’s really a graph of new testing. We’re giving more tests! that’s what’s being shown.

I’d like to see a graph of how many people are being treated for covid in icu units. I think that’s measurable in an accurate way and addresses the issue at hand.

Of course I think everyone should act as if they had covid or those around have covid. I have no doubt that it’s spreading.

[Russ W]

The video from Larry M was sobering….but well-communicated and understandable. Perhaps I’m politically jaded, but shouldn’t our government put something like this out en mass? Listening to Trump blubbering and flubbering at press conferences is not effective or actionable.

[Jerry Adams]

I tried to order food delivered or at door pickup from Safeway and Amazon (whole foods or amazon fresh)

No time slots available.  Check back later.  New time slots released during the day.

I can do fine without.  I’d like some bananas, but I can live without.  Plenty of toilet paper : )

[James Marco]

Yeah, hunker down and wait it out. Not much else you can do at this point.

 

[Chris H]

@Ryan

Exactly, Agreed.  Until they start testing across the board and start getting some ‘statistically significant’ cross sections, IMO we have no clear idea what we are dealing with.  At this point, we are doing all we can by adhering to this isolation strategy.  And now the biggest hotspots are no longer testing on demand because they don’t have the tests, resources, whatever.  We are swimming upstream.  What’s done is done.  I think by the time we really have meaningful numbers from testing, we’ll either be overwhelmed by this mess, or it will have calmed down due to what we are all doing now.  Gosh I hope it’s the latter.

This testing mess is a total cluster if you ask me.  So regardless of where we decide to lay the blame based on politics/facts/whatever, or not lay blame, because honestly I don’t believe anybody really knew or could have known what was coming, we are all kinda stuck in this together.

But like 9-11, I have to hope the world won’t find itself in this position again without a stockpile of test kits out there somewhere.  Nobody will ever bring a plane down with a box cutter again and good gosh I hope no country will be caught flat-footed again without being ready to test for stuff like this.  I hope.  Occasionally we learn from history, it’s just rare.

Society needs to make some simple changes.  Just think what an impact it would make to simply convert as much of the workforce as possible to telecommuting arrangements where it makes sense.  Even if you only allowed/required it during peak flu season around the world when this crap typically takes hold.  But the powers that be in many companies, particularly here in the U.S. (can’t speak to other places) are ‘ass in seat’ types of people running the show all because they can’t or won’t train management to make sure people are productive.

 

[Jerry Adams]

They just updated that chart with another day,  Not unexpectedly, much higher the last 24 hours:

It looked better for a couple days but it’s back to exponential growth.  Daily variations can bounce around, you have to see a number of days before you can see the trend.

A big majority of new cases are New York, sort of like Wuhan was a hot spot in China.

We need to make the shutdown much tighter.

[W I S N E R !]

I think about this a lot…not just in times of illness, but in general.  We have the tech that many, many people shouldn’t have to physically go to work.  reducing traffic, pollution…all of it.  But no, I don’t think we’re collectively mature enough to trust people with this.  “Ass in seat” as you say.  If an employer can’t physically see their people, I’m not sure they trust them, even if productivity is the same.

[J-L]

I’m working from home now and will be for the foreseeable future. My job is done entirely on a computer and I never technically need to go into an office – everything can be done remotely.

It’s been a mixed-bag for me. There are some positives (eating healthier, more flexible hours, better coffee and tea), but I do miss going into the office, chatting with co-workers in person, and having a work-life separation. I also feel that working relationships are stronger when you’ve met in person. Working from home, it kind of feels like the work day never ends. Ideally, I’d have “work hours” and an office to separate home and work life, but I don’t have the space and am set up on my kitchen table.

Talking to my co-workers, I think many of us are looking forward to going back to the office. Maybe that habit is so ingrained in us that it’s what we “want”. If working from home becomes a permanent option in the future though, then I would have to seriously think about it.

[Jerry Adams]

I ordered some food from Amazon Whole Foods, delivered

No delivery available

After 5 retries, I finally got a delivery, tomorrow 8PM to 10PM

Bananas, oranges, oatmeal,…

I’m good for TP, didn’t even try, no need to

I tried Safeway a bunch of times, delivery or in store pick-up.  Never available.

[Brad Rogers]

I’m working from home now too, until April 13th anyways.  There are some positives to working at home (I’ve been running during my lunch break, rather than after I get home) and of course it save the commute, but it does feel less fulfilling.    We’ve got a pretty close knit work-group and conference calls and video conferences just don’t seem to be as efficient as face to face conversations.

Big implications in the next few days.  I’ve got a multi-million dollar project that I’ve been managing for the past two years that was supposed to start implementation next Monday.  They’ve already moved it until April 13th, but the executive team is considering differing it until the next outage – which would put it starting in October of 2021.

I’ve got a pretty decent makeshift home office set up though, with a desktop and three monitors set up in a bedroom that’s “main” duty is my gear closet.

[Author]

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