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I know a person who as a healthy adult was flown by helicopter to a hospital after spending 45 minutes in 50 degree water. He would have drowned had he not been clinging to his kayak.
Survival times in cold water.
Edit: I am responding to this statement…
For a healthy adult, it can take 30 mins or more for mild symptoms to develop when immersed in ice water (0 C or 32 F)
I think the moral of the story is that many folks here could do that trip, and survive in almost any scenario within reason. But, I bet they wouldn't want their son or daughter to try it. A four hour hike in pouring rain and 40-50 deg temps is far from enjoyable and could be dangerous, especially to those with little experience.
So, in summary, yes I think it's dumb. I do agree with others who say it may be difficult to change their mind. Once they experience some discomfort caused by their own decisions it may help them rethink some things.
Ryan
Even the site you linked directly to states a healthy adult can survive 2 hours while treading water @ 50 F. That's without a PFD. Thanks for reinforcing my point.
Can you get hypothermia in the backcountry? Sure. It's just not nearly as likely as people like to think/say it is.
I could survive with a knife, fire steel and a water container in a forested area, but what a crappy way to spend a weekend!
The whole gist of this is to use some common sense and have the basic gear to cover changes in the weather.
Of couse there are seasonal and regional differences. I wouldn't have the same level of insulation in July than I would in January, but I would still have some backup layers. For my PNW climate, there really aren't any periods that I would trust to have weather dry and warm enough that I could reliably go without some form of basic shelter. That doesn't mean hauling the kitchen sink. A minimalist tarp or a poncho could be very acceptable— and along ways from having no shelter at all.
My day hiking kit includes a poncho, spare line and a space blanket bivy. With that and my other essentials I could get by in some nasty conditions. That is a 10oz insurance policy.
Chris W. wrote…
"Thanks for reinforcing my point."
How does a correction of factually inaccurate information reinforce your point?
What hard evidence do you have that the average person underestimates the amount
of time it takes to become endangered by hypothermia? Don't you think attempting
to convince random novice backpackers on the internet that they have overestimated the threat of hypothermia, without providing accurate guidelines as to what the actual *average* limits and misconceptions are, could be considered irresponsible?
"What hard evidence do you have that the average person underestimates the amount
of time it takes to become endangered by hypothermia?"
That is one of the most insidious facets of hypothermia. One of the first things to happen is a loss of good judgment. Of course, that is bad in an inexperienced person, because maybe they didn't have much good judgment to begin with. However, in the experienced person, good judgment is reduced during the early stages of hypothermia, and then they just keep getting into worse and worse problems.
–B.G.–
I gave factual information. It comes from the Wilderness Medicine Institute/NOLS and Rescue 6 International (whitewater/swiftwater rescue trainers). What you posted says the same thing I did.
32-40F 15-30 min (I said "up to 30 min @ 32 F").
Direct quote:
"Although sometimes called immersion hypothermia, loss of body core temperature requires at least a half hour of immersion." -Wilderness First Responder (latest revision) by Buck Tilton
My issue is with people spewing all this "if you get wet for 15 min you'll be hypothermic" BS. I spent two entire days in/out of 50F water on the Chattooga River last May getting my WRT cert with a veteran whitewater guide and EMS/Firefighter. I was cold and shivering, but never hypothermic, and I'd be on the faster end of the onset scale due to very low bodyfat.
Sounds like a good way to cull the species :)
the problem with hypothermia is that many people dont know the symptoms … by the time is very obvious and serious, they start to panic and have their judgement impaired …
you need to recognize whats happening BEFORE you brain gets too addled and yr hands stop working …
example …
http://www.backpackinglight.com/cgi-bin/backpackinglight/ihike_hypothermia.html
"the problem with hypothermia is that many people dont know the symptoms"
Agreed. Shivering doesn't instantly mean hypothermia. Neither does cold hands/feet (mine are cold all the time unless it's above about 80F). Same for chill bumps.
FWIW – the WMI defines S/S of mild hypothermia as:
The "umbles" (stumble, fumble, grumble, mumble) *this is a key sign
Lack of sound judgement, confusion, apathy, "mild stupidity"
Increased HR and RR
Pale, cool skin
Shivering, cold hands/feet, chill bumps, etc. can mean any number of things.
S/S of moderate hypothermia:
Violent/uncontrollable shivering (not mild)
Worsening of the "umbles"
Increased confusion
Increased HR and RR
Cold and pale (dusky) skin
S/S of severe hypothermia:
Cessation of shivering
Muscle rigidity
Stupor progressing to unconsciousness
Slow and/or nonpalpable pules and respirations
Cold and cyanotic (blue) skin
What one person sees as reckless flirting with hypothermia, another person sees as a cold day out.
What one person interprets as a completely unprepared potential wilderness disaster is another person's average Sunday morning trail run.
Once again, we've got a classic BPL forum case study in risk aversion and perceived risk in the outdoors.
isn't the internet wonderful.
Being ten miles into the mountains at 8,000 feet with minimal experience and no shelter is, in my opinion, the very definition of "stupid light."
I think it's likely that hypothermia is the second leading cause of death in the backcountry. http://www.edarnell.com/Stats.htm Deaths attributed to "Lost" on that page are likely almost all hypothermia. Those numbers would undoubtedly be much higher if everyone pushed their luck like the two in the OP. This wasn't a trip where you run into the house in your soggy pajamas when your pup tent floods. ; )
I haven't taken a course, but I know immersion is not the same wrt to heat loss as being wet and exposed to wind. I am not sure why the argument here is around immersion since that was not the scenario presented by the OP.
Spelt, just to bet the immersion thing some more since you seem to be interested:
Your body loses heat 26 time faster in cold water then in the air. Just saying.
Interesting, the WMI signs/symptoms of mild hypothermia sound exactly like the after effects of a typical morning of winter surfing, though many would argue that the "mild stupidity" starts before we even get into the water.
Totally dude.
""mild stupidity" starts before we even get into the water."
Mild?
" What you posted says the same thing I did."
In the spirit of " I did not have sexual relations with that woman", I hereby concede.
"I gave factual information. It comes from the Wilderness Medicine Institute/NOLS and Rescue 6 International (whitewater/swiftwater rescue trainers). What you posted says the same thing I did."
I think you may be missing the main two points here. While the data you are talking about are starting from zero, as it were, and not for someone who may have spent the last 10 hours heavily exerting himself in cold, possibly damp conditions. In such a case the time might reasonably be expected to be much less at that point if you suddenly get soaked. But the speed isn't really the primary issue. The issue is more like the speed you recognized you are in trouble and start to do something about it, as well as whether you have given yourselves viable options once you reach that point.
Point #1 is that it can sneak up on you over hours, and if it is gradual even more experienced people, especially those that think they are tough, and MOST especially those who have never actually gotten to the brink themselves and therefore may not recognize some critical point has been reached, can find themselves suddenly at or beyond a critical point. The point is not really at all about how fast it can happen, but about how fast you can pass the barrier between thinking you are can handle the cold and where you body and brain response start to degrade and some people might (emphasis on the might) reach a point of negative feedback. In that situation things can potentially get dangerous very fast.
Point#2 (sorry for the reiteration) is that people with less experience are MORE likely both to to reach this point and go beyond it without taking action, and are MORE likely to have few options once the point is reached.
Do I think it is "likely". No. In fact I think most people would probably start heading back when they merely experienced "discomfort" and not because they were rightly worried about hypothermia. I think the analogy of Russian Roulette with only one bullet a previous poster made is apt, and I don't know how many empty chambers are in this metaphorical gun, perhaps quite a few. But under those circumstances the options become more limited – for example, you start getting really cold, and you head in, but then maybe you twist or break an ankle because you are shaking (or just because of dumb luck) and now you can't move fast enough anymore, either to maintain core temperature, or to get back to safety. You would have had a viable option for all of this but now a relatively manageable situation becomes one of life and death in an instant.
But the absolute proof for anyone that thinks the risk is negligible is that it does happen, all the time, and people die. It is not "likely", but is happens, especially among exactly the kinds of folks mentioned by the OP. Since it does happen perhaps arguing about how likely it would be to happen is a bit beside the main point – especially if it is your family you are worried about.
If they are fit enough they could have hiked out if the weather turned bad,
IF they had a light that would last long enough and IF they did not get lost.
I'll bet they didn't carry lights either.
I've done the equivalent: check the weather forecast and if it looked good leave the tent behind. But, even when I was young and stupid I'd bring some plastic drop cloth to cover myself; in a driving rain I would have gotten damp and probably cold and miserable, but wouldn't have gotten soaked or dead.
A couple of nights ago it got to 33F (0C) here with rain and wind. Somebody coming from Boston or Providence would have expected temps more like 45F to 50F. Would they have survived without shelter? Maybe. Personally, I don't like the thought of just MAYBE living till morning.
"What a couple of maroons we were! Very, very lucky maroons. Ah, those were the days."
Who doesn't love a good "maroon!"
+1 on lead by example. Nobody likes being chastized. OP didn't say if they were relatives or not, but, if so, any existing relationship and communcation styles would have to be taken into account. I always find it easier to try and be helpful by asking if somebody who is new to something would like me to share an easier/more efficient way of doing something with them rather than just lecturing.
Also, we've all probably done something stupid or "maroonic" over the years as we've gained knowledge and skills.
Walter wrote, "If they are fit enough they could have hiked out if the weather turned bad,
IF they had a light that would last long enough and IF they did not get lost.
I'll bet they didn't carry lights either."
Or do something stupid because your thinking was muddled by the cold. This is where people walk off cliffs or simply turn an ankle due to reduced coordination. Or whack themselves with a hatchet ;)
It's always a chain of small mistakes that snowball into a life threatening mess.
Here's a classic and the victim was a State Patrolman, a former Marine and Special Forces soldier. One calamity compounded with another.
Trooper lost in North Cascades admits he shouldn't have hiked alone
By Eric Stevick, Herald Writer
MARYSVILLE — Daniel Anderson knows he made a mistake.
The Washington State Patrol trooper readily acknowledges he shouldn't have headed out for a solitary trek across the North Cascades east of Darrington.
Anderson, 46, was rescued late Tuesday night along the Suiattle River Trail by search-and-rescue volunteers on horseback. He'd been in trouble since Sunday. He was cold and tired and fearing a third night in a wet sleeping bag without a tent.
"I feel culpable for going alone," Anderson said Wednesday afternoon.
His sense of adventure and love of nature got the best of him, luring him onto the remote and scenic stretch.
Anderson was trying to hike across the mountains from west to east, with his planned destination Holden Village near Stehekin in Chelan County.
Much went wrong after he made the planned decision to press on deeper into the mountains after leaving behind friends who had biked and hiked with him.
On Sunday, Anderson was on snowshoes, heading over Suiattle Pass. He took a few spills in the rugged terrain. He somehow lost his tent. He didn't realize it was gone until he stopped to camp for the night.
"It was snowing," he recounted. "I knew I had an emergency situation."
He used a beacon signal to send an emergency message that would alert others to his whereabouts. A backup GPS application in his cellphone didn't work.
The batteries in the beacon signal device soon began to run out of juice.
It was enough: a Snohomish County Volunteer Search and Rescue team as well as one from Chelan County soon began to mobilize.
Under tree cover at about 4,900 feet, Anderson made a lean-to against a boulder and spent the night.
The next morning the ex-Marine and former Special Forces soldier made a decision. He would keep moving to stay warm.
"At that point, in my mind, the fuse was lit in terms of hypothermia," he said.
The conditions had deteriorated, too. Once-crunchy snow became as loose as sugar. He had to fight his way through it.
"My success was measured in tens of feet," he said.
Anderson blamed himself but refused to let his predicament get the better of him.
"I chose this," he told himself.
He also repeated a State Patrol mantra: "I will not quit. I will not die. I will survive."
He thought about his boys, ages 12 and 8, and how he wanted to see them.
On Tuesday, he could only watch as a search and rescue helicopter flew overhead without spotting him. He wasn't able to signal.
It was confirmation that people were looking for him, and also a lesson that he should have packed a flare.
Anderson managed to work his way back to the trail leading toward Darrington. He was walking down the path around 9 p.m. Tuesday when he met up with a search and rescue team on horseback. They were about 35 miles from a main road.
Anderson said he yelled: "Are you looking for me?"
Anderson rode out on horseback to the trailhead where he was given an ATV ride to a point where he could finally hop into a car for the drive to Darrington. He made the final leg of his journey in a car driven by a State Patrol captain.
Humble and grateful, Anderson expressed his debt to the more than two dozen search and rescue professionals and volunteers who scoured the backcountry.
Oyvind Henningsen, a member of the Everett Mountain Rescue organization, was one of those volunteers.
"This is a great outcome," he said. "It was a prolonged effort by multiple agencies, spanning multiple counties using multiple types of resources."
Bill Quistorf, pilot of the Snohomish County Search and Rescue helicopter, danced around challenging weather conditions to make nine flights over two days.
The helicopter team was able to find Anderson's tracks by homing in on the location where his beacon briefly signaled.
"That was our goal, to get to those coordinates and to get him out of there," he said. "We were happy. We wanted to see his tent."
By the time the helicopter reached that location, however, Anderson had already moved on.
Searchers on Tuesday followed Anderson's snowshoe tracks at the 4,000-foot level for a while near Miners Creek.
Rescuers made it to the 3,900-foot level where rain had washed out tracks in wet snow. That trail disappeared near a steep ravine that searchers described as rugged, icy and slippery.
Quistorf guided one group of searchers to Anderson's snowshoe tracks. They had earlier encountered cougar tracks.
Anderson said he is thankful to those who helped him in his time of need.
"A lot of people put themselves in harm's way for me," he said.
A few minutes later, he expressed his appreciation in a different way.
"I'm grateful we live in a place where life is valued," he said.
Eric Stevick: 425-339-3446; stevick@heraldnet.com.
Going back to the OP-
"But if the weather turned they would get hypothermia and die. It's really that straight forward. You get wet and you die."
That's a completely untrue statement. Period. Even in the context of going out in to the wilderness without shelter, it's false. That's where all the hypothermia discussion stemmed from. Hypothermia is rarely ruled a cause of death. It might be an attributing factor, but people rarely die directly from it. In the case of immersion, you'll die of drowning before hypothermia. I know, that's getting technical about it, but facts are facts. I wonder how many people on here know that you can develop hypothermia without exposure to water, wind, or cold….
"They have no survival skills."
I think you mean they have no survival training. There's a huge difference. If it starts raining, and it's cold, the first thing any sane (of course you never said if they were sane or not) human being is going to do is find shelter. I'm not that familiar with the Sierra, so I'm assuming (bad on me, I know) they were below tree line and in an area where trees exist.
"They went 10 miles into the woods with just sleeping pads and sleeping bags. No shelter.
They slept on the ground."
Did they sleep on the pads? Or directly on the ground?
So, yes, I'd say this is a case of overreacting, both with the OP and most of the replies. Hard to draw a reasonable conclusion and offer sound advice without all of the facts being presented.
"Hard to draw a reasonable conclusion and offer sound advice without all of the facts being presented."
+1 This is why I asked some still unanswered questions about what they had with them.
The OP's style is always on the overreacting/excitable. Like he's set to 11 all the time.
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