The COVID 19 outbreak. Does it mean MORE backpacking this year?

[AK Granola]

The outbreak will mean more hiking for me, but perhaps more that is closer to home and not flying places. I’m not writing off the whole year yet though! I have two trips planned and not canceling until I have to. They are far off yet, fortunately.

The economic outcome is more likely to affect my recreation decisions than the virus is, and for a longer time. I imagine the tanking economy will hurt more people than the illness does, not that I’m discounting the damage of the outbreak at all, especially for vulnerable people. But there will be less flexibility in spending for those of us who are middle class, and no flexibility for the paycheck to paycheck folks.

The positive effect of getting out during this time is immeasurable, on mental and physical health.

Did you buy the backhoe, Nick? I love how the ad algorithms always show you what you just bought, as if you’d want to buy it again. Seems like a programming flaw but it’s common.

[Jerry Adams]

“What if a family member gets infected while out of the house?”

All family members will probably get sick.

That lawyer in New York – all of his family got it

The lawyer gave it to a neighbor – all of that family got sick

A different neighbor drove the lawyer to the hospital – all of that family got sick

Every member of a household has to practice social distancing.

Members of a household do not have to practice social distancing from each other, it’s futile

[Jerry Adams]

I have done one backpack trip per month since I was laid off in 2005.

Actually, I did my March trip in February.  Got back last day of February.  Close enough.  Occasionally I’ll just camp where I park the car, especially in winter when no one’s around.

Brenda tells me to go anyway.  No.  Let’s see the number of new cases peak, then steeply drop.  Then I’ll think about it.  I don’t have to do a trip for another month anyway.

I just drive.  I haven’t flown since before 9/11/2001.

[Brad Rogers]

Jerry – What would keep you from doing a local trip?  I’d say you’re chances of picking up the virus on a back-country trip has to be near zero.  A trail without much use has to be the safest place in the world right now.

 

[Jerry Adams]

yeah, that’s what Brenda says, you all are right

It will be peace of mind me knowing this has peaked and dropped

I want to protect the house and Brenda from the toilet paper mobs trying to break into the house and take our toilet paper : )

Besides, I’ve already done my March trip

[d k]

I’ve been working on perfecting my sourdough bread skills, but also spending way too much time on devices.  I’ve been taking a break from practicing music, but need to get back to that at some point…if I would just transfer the time from electronics to that!  I plan on sewing a shelter (cut the pieces out last week, but I want to refinish my sewing machine cabinet before I bring it upstairs).

We’re just going on daily hikes together now, but there’s a nice spring backpacking area about an hour away that we’re keeping in mind.  There’s an advantage to both partners backpacking at this time, you don’t have to worry about what’s happening to the other while you’re gone. Have to decide where to hide the TP while we’re backpacking, though…

[David Thomas]

>” toilet paper mobs trying to take our toilet paper ”

True ULers use pine cones and Thimbleberry leaves.

[James Marco]

There are a lot of good reasons to not go. But that is relative to your situation.

Iff you have had covid, then feel free. You won’t catch it again and you won’t transmit it.

Everyone WILL get it. The timing is critical only because of the limited health system. As of today, hospitals are near full, more would mean people will not be treated. Stay home. No unnecessary travel. You might be contributing to someones death by not paying attention to this rule. Seriously…

IFF you have not yet been infected, you are a potential carrier. Eventualy and with certainty, you will get a bad case of the bug and then be fine, hopefully. Small towns, remote locations, etc, may or may not be infected, yet. Even if you get infected you won’t know it for a week or two and become a carrier in the mean time. DON’T TRAVEL, for now. If you can get to local trails (within 15min walking distance,) do it, if only for stress relief.  Avoid pre-built shelters. If someone infected used it last night, you won’t know it. Occupancy logs are iffy and they too could be infected.  You might get sick on the trail. Do not plan for more than an overnight. You will likely get soo sick you will be incapable of further travel.  There are few medical services on most trails. There are fewer doctors and nurses. And stores will likely not be too pleased to serve you, right now, though this will likely change in about 6 months.

You might resign yourself to not getting other people sick and work on gear for the next 6 weeks.

“Tents, tarps, stakes and poles. Sleeping bags, quilts, pads and cloths. Pots and stoves, spoons and knives. And a pack to carry it all. ” -Marco

[Jerry Adams]

good points James

another is don’t take any risks that might require you going to a hospital.  You don’t want to go there for your sake, and for theirs

maybe driving to/from and hiking is a little riskier than staying at home?  maybe risk is so low as to not worry about?

be careful when you’re cutting food not to accidentally cut yourself and require going to a hospital

etc.

[Diane “Piper” Soini]

I might go on more shorter trips. Saturday night trips. If it stops raining and I can get my Man to go with me. Soon our money will be worthless. Soon we’ll all be camping.

[AK Granola]

Diane that comment about money makes me want to buy my dream tent now, while my money can still buy it!

[Larry M]

Hi all. For those of you who found the 1st article about the coronavirus helpful, here’s an update, see below.  If you’re seeing this post for the first time,  no worries, this update contains a reference to the original article.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

[Jerry Adams]

that’s really good too, thanks

 

[Jerry Adams]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china/chinas-new-imported-coronavirus-cases-at-record-no-domestic-transfers-for-second-day-idUSKBN217065

For the second day in a row, no new cases in China, they are now easing up

This is what we can look forward to if we have aggressive enough shutdown

China had 228 cases from people entering the country.  We will have to continue fighting this indefinitely until a vaccine, but it won’t be as bad

 

[Jacob]

We were going to drive to death valley this weekend for a birthday. Now we’re not. It will probably get too hot before shelter in place is lifted. Maybe next year?

I don’t know if trails near my apartment will be low traffic; I live in such an urban area it seems like COVID19 will mean less backpacking for us this year.

[H W]

James Marco says, “everyone WILL get it”

We’d better hope that is NOT the case. Estimates are that if 75% of the U.S. population becomes infected 10 million will die. Containment via suppression is the only solution and that means a national quarantine. The hammer is already coming down in California.

[Kattt]

Eventually we probably will all get it; the millions of deaths would be if we get it all in a short period. If contagion is slowed way down the death rate will be much smaller.

[H W]

Agree, but that’s why total isolation, as did China, is the best solution. Every day we wait thousands more are being infected.

Marco, please provide your source that once you get it you won’t get it again.

[H W]

The hammer has fallen on NY State, i.e total lockdown.  Presume this will go national in a few days.

 

[Jerry Adams]

They say the death rate is maybe 1%, if the hospitals aren’t overwhelmed

If 50% of the population get it, that would be 160 million, so 1.6 million people would die.  As a comparison, about 2.8 million people die each year from all causes.

If everyone got sick at the same time, the hospitals would get overwhelmed so the death rate would be more like 5%, so that would be 8 million deaths nationally

 

[Jerry Adams]

Jacob, maybe drive to the trailhead and if it’s not busy, go ahead, just stay 6 feet away from anyone else.  Don’t touch anything.

Isn’t exercise like hiking an allowed exception from the shutdown?

[James Marco]

Yes, total lock-down for the foreseeable future here in NY. As of today we don’t have any known mutations to COVID19. I believe there were two, but one was stopped in China. After infection, you will spend 4-6 weeks sick. People have been tested with NO virus in their system and now have an acquired immunity. This immunity will kill any newly invading virus in your bloodstream…you will not become sick when any is ingested, breathed or or. You cannot catch the same bug and have it make you sick the same way, twice. Otherwise every person would never get over a disease… it don’t work like that. You do get over a disease. There are known instances where the genetic code has been modified by a virus to allow auto-immune problems, cancers, etc later on in life, but I am not sure there is ANY info on COVID19 about that. Nor for paired diseases such as chickenpox and shingles. I am not worried too much about those things at this point. The point about survivors means they are resistant. We WILL eventually figure out their resistance and create a vaccine, projections are 12 to 18 months.

Source?  Good question, I read between 4-6 informational items/papers per day. Generally a virus cannot cause the same illness, twice (see above, it applies to medicine in general.) Since we have survivors, then resistance is possible.  A disease you could catch twice means you wouldn’t ever get over it.

 

[James Marco]

Jerry,

Yes, hiking, walking, running, etc are have pretty much the same effect on the body: improved resistance. As always maintain social distance. don’t touch things that have been touched by others.

[Pedestrian]

A lot of smaller towns in California and in Washington state that serve as launch points for climbing and backpacking are appealing to visitors to NOT go there. These small communities have very limited medical resources that will be very quickly overwhelmed in case of any outbreak.

Bishop, Truckee, communities around Joshua Tree and many others have issued appeals.

Please consider this before heading out on a trip.

Climbers, Please Control Yourselves

 

[Jacob]

Jerry @retiredjerry In terms of exercise we can still run and bike around our neighborhood, but all the trails leading anywhere you can camp are paths in the hills surrounded by large neighborhoods. During normal times trail runners always pass me, no matter how far I’ve hiked. The trail heads are usually packed. I imagine even if there are 0-2 cars at the trail head there would still be at least a dozen people out running and hiking from the local homes.

Since we don’t live in walking distance it seems like we should just stay in our area to best help curb the spread of this virus.

[Author]

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