The COVID 19 outbreak. Does it mean MORE backpacking this year?

[Jerry Adams]

That article said death rate in wuhan was 5.8%, 0.7% in the rest of the country.

Wuhan health system was overwhelmed so care wasn’t as good

If we can avoid overwhelming our healthcare system maybe things wont be as bad

[Larry M]

Hi al. I thought I would contribute to this thread. Perhaps this article will answer many questions people have. Decide for yourself.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

 

[Kattt]

^^^^ serious stuff. Thanks

[Ryan Jordan]

A truly outstanding analysis @packitout-2 – thanks for sharing. The author doesn’t include island analysis much (e.g., nursing home, synagogue) but this analysis is very good, and the end projections are within an order of magnitude at least, probably…?

[Rex Sanders]

The USA is likely underestimating the number of COVID-19 deaths, perhaps by a lot. So we’re that much worse off than a simple reading of Pueyo’s charts and models would indicate.

The CDC just recently revealed that the number of deaths will continue to increase not just because of new deaths, but because it continues to find confirmed infections posthumously, meaning that people died from COVID-19 before doctors knew to check them for it.

https://bgr.com/2020/03/11/coronavirus-pandemic-world-health-organization-who/

— Rex

 

 

[Jeff McWilliams]

In regards to claims that the mortality has been overstated because of a lot of undetected mild cases.  This has been addressed.  Here’s one quote for example from The Guardian:

At the start of an outbreak the apparent mortality rate can be an overestimate if a lot of mild cases are being missed. But this week, a WHO expert suggested that this has not been the case with Covid-19. Bruce Aylward, who led an international mission to China to learn about the virus and the country’s response, said the evidence did not suggest that we were only seeing the tip of the iceberg. If borne out by further testing, this could mean that current estimates of a roughly 1% fatality rate are accurate. This would make Covid-19 about 10 times more deadly than seasonal flu, which is estimated to kill between 290,000 and 650,000 people a year globally.

Someone on Reddit claimed this was also addressed in the WHO report, but I can’t find it or quote from it directly.

[Jeff McWilliams]

 

[obx hiker]

Larry that may be the most valuable link I’ve ever followed.

One of the links embedded in that article leads to a Reuters article about Patient 31

You do not want to meet Patient 31,

And even more importantly you do not want to be Patient 31 and carry that weight

[Jerry Adams]

Excellent article packitout – good analysis, good graphics

I thought it was actually quite hopeful.  When China locked down, new cases flattened.

Maybe you don’t have to be quite so draconian, especially early like right now in the U.S.  Social distancing.  Voluntary quarantine in a few hard hit areas like Washington and New Rochelle.

Don’t wait until hospitals become overwhelmed.  Don’t underestimate this.

[obx hiker]

^^^ Following that also excellent link above by Jeff which is also really informative

One might come to the conclusion that the longer term effect of China’s lock-downs is flattening the rate like those animated charts. The expert being interviewed on the video linked by Jeff suggests that once the Chinese go back to work and start circulating again/more that the occurrence of cases will resume. I don’t understand the mechanics of group immunity so I guess that’s my homework for today. (Unless someone has another excellent link?    ;)

But it looks like it’s going to take that and a vaccine to put out this fire. Could be quite awhile. Let’s hope the epidemic doesn’t slow the work towards a vaccine. Another possible perverse side effect.

[Jerry Adams]

The Medium article points out that social distancing is critical – keep 6 feet away from others, no events with crowds,…

According to his calculation, if this policy is delayed by 1 day, it can result in 40% more deaths

If your hospitals become overwhelmed, death rate is 5%.  With good care death rate is 0.9% plus there are way fewer cases so number of deaths is way less

It’s difficult to distinguish between flu and covid-19 – if there’s even a small chance, stay at home.  Don’t go out in public and infect others.  You’re probably one of the mild cases so there isn’t that much personal risk, but it risks others.

[obx hiker]

Edited to add: Subtract the first also…..

And add BTW:  Evidently some people (like my daughter….. my ears are still ringing  :)   are very skeptical of Joe Rogan….. guess he’s not funny like Seth…

But anyway this Osterholm guy seems very knowledgeable and isn’t hyperventilating. More like Joe Friday on Dragnet: Just the facts mam.

I’m really having a hard time with the edit “feature”   more like an edit bug

[Jerry Adams]

The Joe Rogan guest said that apparently, people are contagious before exhibiting symptoms

do social distancing even if you’re not sick

[Kattt]

”do social distancing even if you’re not sick”

If this hasn’t been obvious yet I don’t know what to say.

[obx hiker]

Based on comments in this very thread I’d say that either the message isn’t being received, there’s a version of “trolling” going on, or general disbelief.

That’s why links like Jeff’s and Larry’s are so valuable. I’d have shut up long ago but for the realization that catching and transmitting the virus means I could be endangering very vulnerable people/acquaintances/friends/family/loved ones.

I thought/hoped I was being pretty blunt pointing out that people could possibly die as a result of YOU passing the virus.

I think I’m going to say one more thing and then put myself in an extended time-out. ;)

If you’ve read this you can’t say you didn’t know (that you might give vulnerable people a virus that KILLS them)

[Kattt]

@obx hiker

I can’t believe some of the answers here either . Thanks  for trying.

[BlackHatGuy]

“Based on comments in this very thread I’d say that either the message isn’t being received, there’s a version of “trolling” going on, or general disbelief.”

This seems a bit of hyperbole. While some tongue-in-cheek comments are made in most threads, it seems to me that the vast majority of responses in this thread understand the nature of the virus and the need for social distancing.

[Dave @ Oware]

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-03-coronavirus-surfaces-days.html

“The new coronavirus can live in the air for several hours and on some surfaces for as long as two to three days, tests by U.S. government and other scientists have found.”

Don’t be this guy

“NBA’s Rudy Gobert mocked coronavirus by touching reporters’ mics, phones. Then he tested positive.”

https://youtu.be/lYC6oQIAzbI

[BlackHatGuy]

““NBA’s Rudy Gobert mocked coronavirus by touching reporters’ mics, phones. Then he tested positive.””

And then his teammate, with a locker next to his, tested positive as well.

[Rex Sanders]

“The new coronavirus can live in the air for several hours…”

I like to read the original paper when possible, since press releases and media reports get stuff wrong way too often. This paper hasn’t had time to go through peer-review yet, but seems plausible:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033217v1.full.pdf

From the abstract, lightly edited for jargon, emphasis added:

Overall, stability is very similar between [COVID-19] and [SARS]. We found that viable virus could be detected in aerosols up to 3 hours post aerosolization, up to 4 hours on copper, up to 24 hours on cardboard and up to 2-3 days on plastic and stainless steel. [COVID-19] and [SARS] exhibited similar half-lives in aerosols, with median estimates around 2.7 hours. Both viruses show relatively long viability on stainless steel and polypropylene compared to copper or cardboard: the median half-life estimate for [COVID-19] is around 13 hours on steel and around 16 hours on polypropylene.

Comment: “up to 3 hours post aerosolization” above is misleading – that’s how long the experiment ran. I would have used “at least.” OTOH, I’m not sure we know the minimum dose of COVID-19 virus required for infection via various pathways. Note the logarithmic scale on the vertical axis below.

More from the paper on “super-spreading”:

A notable feature of [SARS] was super-spreading events, in which a single infected individual was responsible for a large number of secondary cases, well above the average number denoted by the reproduction number R. A tendency toward such super-spreading events has two important consequences for the epidemiology of emerging infections: it makes any given introduction of infection more likely to die out by chance, but when outbreaks do occur they are explosive and can overwhelm hospital and public health capacity. A number of hypothesized super-spreading events have been reported for [COVID-19]. Given that [SARS] superspreading events were linked to aerosol and [inanimate object] transmission, our finding that [COVID-19] has viability in the environment comparable to that of [SARS] lends credence to the hypothesis that it too may be associated with superspreading.

Super-spreading is a good news/bad news situation. And from what I’ve read, we figure out who the super-spreaders are after the fact. Could be you!

— Rex

[W I S N E R !]

Here’s to some good ol’ fashioned “social distancing”: Gin Rummy, sipping whiskey (sorry, nothing fancy!), playing old records, and staying home with your loved ones…

[Nick Gatel]

What if a banana peels has the virus on it? Do we wash the peel and our hands first?

[d k]

Craig, that’s a great swing era compilation!  My dad had that set, I think I have it tucked away someplace now.  Hmmm…

[Jerry Adams]

I have wondered the same thing.  Actually, that’s more of a Brenda question.

The only thing I’ve seen is that the virus can live on surfaces for several days, but I think that’s abundance of caution. You could either wash them, or let them sit for several days before eating.  Corona virus is killed in warmer temperatures, like even 80 F.  At room temperature they’ll die quicker than in cool temperatures.

The main threat is when someone coughs and you breath in the droplets.  Or the droplets get onto your skin and you transfer to mouth/nose/eyes with your hands.  Or someone transfers their fluids onto their hands, to door knob, to your hand, to mouth/nose/eyes.

 

[BlackHatGuy]

“Craig, that’s a great swing era compilation!”

And it’s vinyl!!

[Author]

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