People “think” they need a bomber backpack. I bet the number of hikers who have more than 2000 miles on their backpacks are a very very small number. It will be an interesting survey on BPL and reddit to see. People buy, try, sell. Nobody keeps their backpacks for a long time. They keep switching, trying newer backpacks for whatever reason – fit, the next great fabric, framed, frameless etc etc.
If you take Zpacks packs with Ultra, sure the fabric is going to last a long time – how about the other components? LiteAf owner I think said that – that other components are failing on their backpacks.- not the fabric anymore. So Zpacks, LiteAf will improve their components. I feel HMG packs are overbuilt in the component area as well. They use 3.5 osy and 5 osy fabric which easily lasts 4 to 5k miles. Gossamer Gear fabrics are not that burly….but, it is a popular brand. So, I don’t think having a burly fabric is the main selling point for backpacks.
We already had nylon backpacks which can last a long time – like for example MLD Burn DX210 last 8000 miles according to Cam “Swami” Honan. I doubt you can convince that guy who used it for 8000 miles that he needs Ultra – other than it is a fancy new fabric. In fact, he said that the thing that failed was the foam in the shoulder straps. And Rob Bell said he can change the shoulder straps of the Ultra backpacks so that the backpack can theoretically go longer.
I don’t think HMG needs to react to Ultra. In fact, I like the 5 osy DCF compared to the Ultra. I feel Ultra gets crinkled and dirty and harder to clean. It is much easier to clean the black 5 osy DCF as it is glossy and dirt comes off easily.