CA Drought and 2014 hiking season

I'm setting my sights on reaching 50% of normal snowpack before this wet season is over.
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/snowapp/swcchart.action

Percentage of average snowpack for given date date:

Northern California
Feb 26 – 10%
Feb 27 – 13%
Feb 28 – 14%
Mar 5 – 22%
Mar 10 – 20%

Central California
Feb 26 – 25%
Feb 27 – 28%
Feb 28 – 29%
Mar 5 – 39%
Mar 10 – 35%

Southern California
Feb 26 – 17%
Feb 27 – 20%
Feb 28 – 22%
Mar 5 – 36%
Mar 10 – 34%

This storm should last 3 or 4 more days, just like the good old days of Craig's Grandfather

[edited Mar 5 to add more data]

Some run off from the last storm a few weeks ago, per the raised water level in the creek running thru my property on the Plumas. With the thawed out ground now due to the warm weather, hopefully most of the rain will soak in.
Duane

Statement as of 3:32 AM PST on February 27, 2014

… Winter Storm Warning in effect from 1 am to 10 PM PST Friday…

* Snow accumulations friday: 4 to 8 inches below 7000 feet… 12 to
20 inches above 7000 feet… and up to 24 inches along the Sierra
crest.

Yesterday’s storm gave us our first rainfall of any significance here on the Santa Barbara south coast. We got about 1.5- 2″ overnight. That brings our seasonal rainfall total up to 2.5″ which is about 15% of normal.

Parts of the SB/Ventura backcountry faired a little better, with some of the remote weather stations checking in with 2.5- 3″ or more. The deep backcountry (Cuyama area, Mt Pinos, etc.) must’ve been in the rain shadow as these areas were mostly back down in the 0.5″ range.

Data for all of the rain gauges can be found HERE. Click on a station to get the station name and various rainfall summary statistics (e.g., 12- hour, 24- hour, month, season, etc.).

The next round is supposed to move in tonight for us and linger through Saturday. Expecting a few inches along the coast with this next system, possibly up to 8″ in the southern Los Padres backcountry. Hopefully that’s enough to start to bring our local creeks back to life.

And the 14 day forecast on Wunderground is for a chance of up to an inch of snow today followed by many days of sunny warm weather, with temps well above normal. Doesn't look good at all. We'll be lucky to be at 1/3rd of normal snowpack on April 1st (which is the average date of max snowpack).

http://weatherspark.com/#!dashboard;a=USA/CA/Truckee
http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=zmw:93262.1.99999
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/snowapp/swcchart.action

Snowpack Percent of normal for this date:

Northern California
Feb 26 – 10%
Feb 27 – 13%
Feb 28 – 14%
Mar 5 – 22%
Mar 10 – 20%
Mar 17 – 17%
Mar 22 – 15%
Mar 30 – 19%
Apr 3 – 25%
Apr 8 – 25%

Central California
Feb 26 – 25%
Feb 27 – 28%
Feb 28 – 29%
Mar 5 – 39%
Mar 10 – 35%
Mar 17 – 33%
Mar 22 – 30%
Mar 30 – 35%
Apr 3 – 39%
Apr 8 – 40%

Southern California
Feb 26 – 17%
Feb 27 – 20%
Feb 28 – 22%
Mar 5 – 36%
Mar 10 – 34%
Mar 17 – 30%
Mar 22 – 26%
Mar 30 – 28%
Apr 3 – 33%
Apr 8 – 31%

"And the 14 day forecast on Wunderground is for a chance of up to an inch of snow today followed by many days of sunny warm weather, with temps well above normal. Doesn't look good at all. We'll be lucky to be at 1/3rd of normal snowpack on April 1st (which is the average date of max snowpack)."

Looks like you called it:

23-38% of typical snowpack for this date.

Now we have to translate the snowpack into what that means for early-season trails.

–B.G.–

one of the fellows that actually takes snow measurements in the Sierra posts on JMT facebook. He measured a couple of southern Sierra locations at 50-60% of normal last week. The average is just that, an average, it will be closer to normal in some places, and less in others.

Its still remarkably low however overall.

I've been watching both the sensors and the manual measurements pretty closely as they get posted,(backcountry ski trip planning) and there is a clear trend toward higher percentages at higher altitudes. Anything low,by which I mean under 7000 feet in the northern (tahoe-yosemite) sierra and under maybe 8500-9000 feet around Whitney, is like 10-20% of average while higher elevations are 40, 50, even 60%. so we may have an oddball early summer with things clearing out fast lower down and then you'll hit a sudden increase in snow as you get higher. But the odds are pretty good that it will be an early melt-off overall, even though the long-range forecasts I've seen are showing some snow still to come in mid-april, which will at least slow down the melt if not build the snowpack.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/comment.html?entrynum=261

Bump, just to keep this valuable information at the top.

Does anyone have any updates about alcohol stoves along the JMT?

I was so confused last year…I imagine this year would be the same. The yahoo group and folks here all sounded the alarm about no stoves without on/off switches. Meaning no esbit, no alky.

When I actually GOT to the JMT, however, every single ranger I came across, from the permit office in yosemite to the rangers on the trail, every single ranger said they had never heard that stoves needed on/off switches. They unanimously said alky stoves were fine.

The printed signs along the trails all said "no open fires, stoves OK" and that's it.

I'm going to assume the confusion is going to continue and not sure how this year will be any different.

My experience last year was the same as Jennifer's. Every trip I asked directly if Alky/Esbit set ups were ok and every time I was told yes.

It seems like most of the examples of "rangers" saying no come from calls to the regular wilderness offices, though maybe I have that wrong. Maybe those guys are grumpier, or maybe they are somehow more motivated to interpret the vague regs conservatively. If you bring a stove snuffer you can at least make a very decent case for being in compliance if you meet a grumpy ranger actually in the wilderness! I have tried batting my eyelashes, but I find for me this has a negative effect – on both sexes of rangers. I'm sticking to canister this summer.

hey guys, hopefully this is helpful to some, but might already be common knowledge. last week i came across this site:

http://www.nps.gov/seki/naturescience/fire-restrictions.htm

which is now showing as under construction when i try and visit it.
this should take you to a cache copy from google.

http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:PlsGQDcyIaMJ:www.nps.gov/seki/naturescience/fire-restrictions.htm+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us

good luck.

Just last night I sent my inquiry to SEKI asking about any fire restrictions they might have this summer for various types of backpacker stove apparatus. So far, no reply.

I sent a similar inquiry to Yosemite a few days ago and got the reply that so far they had not made any decision for the summer.

–B.G.–

I've asked about this same thing at the Inyo National Forest ranger station in Bishop, CA. I got one story from the first person writing the permit for me, and when I asked for confirmation, I got a completely different and conflicting story from the second person who works ten feet away in the same office. The wilderness rangers out in the field are in less contact, so they are likely to have even more conflicting opinions.

–B.G.–

I feel pretty comfortable discussing my Starlyte with backcountry rangers, as they are spill proof. About as safe as an alky stove can get.

Tom, although most backcountry rangers tend to be pretty low-key and practical, there are a few out that that are going to enforce federal regulations in any way that they see fit. If their national forest has issued a temporary order about certain kinds of stoves and what kind of controls need to be on them, then they might try to make an example out of you.

That's why I've been making inquiries to the various parks and forests to pin them down on any such restrictions. If I get any concrete replies, I will post them here.

–B.G.–

"Tom, although most backcountry rangers tend to be pretty low-key and practical, there are a few out that that are going to enforce federal regulations in any way that they see fit. If their national forest has issued a temporary order about certain kinds of stoves and what kind of controls need to be on them, then they might try to make an example out of you."

I know, but most of my limited encounters with backcountry rangers have been pleasant.
Only once did I have a run in with a genuine government issue pr!ck, and that was some 37 years ago. Even then, I emerged unscathed, but it sure cast a pall on the day.

I'll look forward to what beta you come up with, but will wonder if you are getting the scoop from people who actually get out in the field, or just the usual BS from front country fat a$$e$ who have never seen a TH and just read from the sheet.

Bob, I think I may have come up with a solution:

Tom, I hear what you are saying. That's why when one Inyo office permit issuer tells me something that I think may not be absolutely true, I ask for a second opinion. Then, once I have them all in agreement, I ask where that is laid out in black and white, at least if I think there may be some question. Once I get it in black and white, then sometimes I carry that with me in the field, just in the even of that same guy that you ran into 37 years ago. Gee, that same guy must be getting old by now.

I've watched some Yosemite backcountry rangers with great interest. One guy walked up to me and asked to see my permit. I showed him and he was on his way about twenty seconds later. He spotted an illegally pitched tent (right next to a lake and right on a pristine piece of meadow), so he was making his way over there. The ranger was packing a sidearm, so he was not to be fooled around with. Plus, he knew how to flush out the owner of said tent. He walked up to it and started pulling out the stakes! Immediately the owner stomped up and started giving the ranger a hard time, right up until he saw the sidearm. The owner just did not know when to give up, though. If he had immediately grabbed up his tent and started moving it back to a legal spot, the ranger might have let him go with a verbal warning. But, the owner just kept ragging on the ranger, so we watched the citation get written, and that is for a federal court.

–B.G.–

Marko, I like your thinking, but it needs to look like a traditional rotary valve control.

–B.G.–

Ah well…just as likely to get me cited for trying to be a smart ass.

Marko, we are sure that you will be successful at everything you try to do.

–B.G.–