So….how do you all feel about Oregon??

Peak oil task force. That's awesome. It would be even more awesome if it was Peak Oil was a real occurance. That theory was developed before shale oil, and doesn't take it into account. Oops. Got off topic. Sorry.

Don't overlook New Mexico when considering a move. Great hiking, less populated than OR or WA, good weather. Downside is some people there don't understand Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROEI) and that a barrel of oil produced from shale requires much more energy to release it from rock and pull it out (compared to simply sticking a straw/pipe in the ground). To say nothing of the environmental destruction. Peak Oil is not a "belief." It's a recognition that individual oil fields follow a bell-curve-shaped production profile and that our finite earth is a collection of individual oil fields. We're probably OK with stable oil prices for a few years, but kudos to portland for leading the way.
Tiny uptick on right is the "immense" increase in US oil production recently.

Great post Harold. Helpful. Not like those others.

Focus.

Is peak oil anything like Gold Peak iced tea? 'Cause that stuff is really good. I think you can get it in Oregon – so another reason to move to Oregon. All the peaks.

Shale oil delays the year when peak oil will occur

Eventually we'll run out of that too

Hopefully we won't go back to "gas guzzlers" to burn through the shale oil as fast as possible and then we'll be in the same spot again – not enough oil, higher spikes in gas prices,…

Somehow, I don't think the price of gasoline will go way down where it used to be, like much less than $3 a gallon

I tried climbing Peak Oil once but it kept moving, then it disappeared.

Speaking as someone who grew up outside Cincinnati, I say move west, and fast. Your only regret will be not doing it a decade sooner.

The rest is just details.

The tradeoff as a single person will generally be a bigger (i.e. 200,000 or more), more crowded area with a more vibrant scene or a quieter, smaller town where every single person over 30 has dated almost every other single person over the age of 30. In the later case the gender difference will be in your favor (assuming you're hetero), but you'll have to deal with a lot of 40 year old ski/fishing/hiking bums still doing their best to stay 22.

Answer that question, pick a preferred climate (wet v. dry/sunny; hot v. cold), and rent a UHaul.

Personally, I'd avoid the PacNW due to climate and crowds, and absolutely avoid the CO front range. Why move away from gridlock looking at cities to gridlock looking at mountains? Missoula is a mini-Portland with lesser versions of all the good things and much better outdoor opportunities (and so many fewer people). Flagstaff is pricey and a bit insular, but if you can find a good job it has the best and most diverse outdoor rec access in the US, bar none. Grand Junction is a bit sleepy, but feels like a real town and has a great mix of mountain and desert access close by.

Good luck.

Joe Clement Douglas Ide, while it’s always cute to see people, particular guys like you, totally non-critically (yet totally predictably) fall for mainstream media spin and agressive marketing of stock prices, this isn’t the thread for that discussion. Read http://theoildrum.com for ongoing analysis of that new set of myths. theoildrum is to energy extraction matters as bpl is to geeky ul chat. Let me put if very briefly and simply: shale oil (aka ‘tight’) is not a new thing, production from those long known and worked on resources happens when peak oil pushes prices up high enough to be economically viable. It’s expensive both in dollars and energy to extract that tight oil, and each well has catastrophically steep decline rates, up to 80% in one year, which forces very fast drilling cycles. Drilling isn’t free, nor are licenses on the land, and also, they are now drilling the best, ie, highest yielding, fields in those tight plays, which means it’s not going to get better in those fields over time, it’s going to get worse. Drilling firms study geological data when they pick where to drill. As for profit, ideally, enterprises, they pick the best sites first. Since there are no longer any good sites of standard oil in the usa, what they are left with is the garbage, like tight oil. The fact of high oil prices is the cause of this new production, it doesn’t ‘disprove’ peak oil, it proves it, but to understand that, you’d have to have at least a hint of a clue about the topic. I’m including some links so you can start working on that, if you want. Or just keep believing fairy tales, if you want, personally I don’t care what you do. Expensive production methods like those that tight oil extraction requires are enabled only once the overall oil price rises high enough (it’s about 80 a barrel break even if I remember now for tight oil, about 60 a barrel for tar sands, compared to old stuff of 1 or 2 a barrel). When you start accessing known inferior oil supplies, like canadian bitumin aka tar sands, you aren’t ‘beating’ peak oil, you are scraping the bottom of the barrel, and that’s not disproof, its proof, since that junk was known for decades and ignored because it was too expensive to produce, and too low quality.

The difference between towns who have no plans and live in cornucopian fantasies spun by media and energy groups who are trying to dump their shares on suckers as fast as they can and Portland is that Portland actually has a plan, and are acting on it. Plans like this take decades to implement, it’s not something you do when it’s already too late, and you don’t drop these plans based on a short term blip of tight oil production increase of about 700k barrels a day, give or take.

The alternate, which you two predictably demonstrated, is to do nothing, sit back, watch the news, uncritically, making sure only to believe what you want, then complain as prices rise, go out and buy a big vehicle, complain as it costs more to fill it. Then blame the liberals for geological oil production limits, while being totally and utterly ignorant of any actual facts, such as that the US has maybe 90% of the worlds total oil wells drilled, and is better at tertiary recovery of oil in place than anywhere else in the world (which is what helped smooth the downward, post US peak production since the ’70s), and hit its own peak of production in 1970 or so, exactly as predicted, and that this recent shale/tight oil bump is just a little notch up in the overall decline. Then, having ignored all the actual facts and data, complain some more. Then one day, whine about no gas being available at your local station, which of course is incomprehensible since it’s a fundamental american right to have all the gas they want, no matter what nature or geology has to say about it. That’s a fine strategy, and I hope it works well for you, and I also hope you work on blaming others rather than creating solutions as things progress, which is the norm from what I can see from your types. To me that’s not smart, but then again, that’s why progressives work at progressing, and others work at complaining that the old ways aren’t working anymore. Have fun. But objectively, I know perfectly well that whatever the mass media you pick tell you, you will believe, so we’ll just have to see what they have to tell you as this stuff progresses.

Here’s a few recent overviews (warning, these have big words and contain content and analysis based on real oil production data, and are not designed to pump up shale/tight oil producing companies).

Does the U.S. Really Have More Oil than Saudi Arabia?

Drumbeat: January 5, 2013

Search the comment threads for: ROCKMAN he’s a conservative texas oil geo, and I like him particularly because he shows that not all conservatives are totally clueless. He’s a real conservative, by the way, so you can feel comfortable with him, he’s not a pretender or closet liberal. alaska_geo is good too, as is west texas, a lot of these guys are working or retired oil company guys. But ROCKMAN says it like it is, if you don’t like what he says, then you don’t like reality, which is probably I’m sure the case…

I could post hundreds of these links, but these are fine to start with. tod (it has a nickname too, like bpl) has had a good time chuckling at the way suckers fell for stock price pumping on shale gas and oil, plus the way a small blip in production has been escalated into some massive amount of oil that changes everything.

The second is a news overview they do 4x a week, the comments are generally also informative if you know which posters to pay attention to. Rockman is the best, he’s a working texas oil engineer who basically can tell it like it is because his company is privately held and has no stock prices to protect. darwinian, though annoying, tends to be pretty on the spot with this production data. You won’t find views based on ignorance tolerated there, by the way, so you might not feel at home.

Jennifer, consider this an example of why you want to live in a community filled with smart, forward looking progressive people, they can actually work on the future and not frantically cling to a fading past, being around those types of people is frankly sad and depressing when the data is so well understood in almost every area. It’s not longer time to chat and babble, it’s time to act, your instincts are absolutely right in this matter. What you want is to be around people working for a real viable future, not fantasies that simply mean: don’t want to change, fear change, resist change. But that’s what makes progressives progress, lol. Maybe I’ll see you up there one day, we’ll see. But do consider those two guys here way of thinking as the exact thing you are trying to get away from, and it’s exactly why portland is one of the few US cities out there that actually makes sense long term to relocate to. Believe me, it’s refreshing to have your daily world filled with people who are actually using their lives to change the norms.

Joe Clement Douglas Ide thanks a lot for providing Jennifer with an example of exactly what she’s trying to get away from, and I do wish you luck on your plan of business as usual while business grows more and more unusual, while not a very interesting plan, I’m sure it is easier to follow than changing anything of substance in your lives.

Sean Heenan, you must not have tried very hard, maybe you need better gear, or better sources. The prediction by those who study the matter was for around 2005-2012. After that we’d be on an undulating plateau of production, which is exactly where we are now. Actual real oil total global production did in fact peak around 2005, the first article I linked to I think talks about some of the myths are you stuck in. All serious analysts put the peak at around 2000-2020, with the more serious middle case being around 2010, that proved to be exactly right. Of course, one no longer needs to even see the numbers, all one needs to do is see the prices, the global political and economic repercussions, and the moves, ini increasing desperation, to the lower energy yielding sources that lower prices had made very unattractive. You take the best first, when that is gone or going, you take what is left, and which you wouldn’t have considered. Obviously, since this is a finite resource, production has to hit a peak, and equally obviously, since we grabbed the best and easiest to access first, at a certain point, we hit the peak. It’s impossible not to, this is not magic.

My apologies for not adhering to the apparently standard format of posting a supposedly witty sentence or two in substitution of actual data or analysis, particularly on critical and core things involved with modern culture, I know that’s how I’m supposed to do it, the less actual content I include the better, of course. Now if those pesky liberals would just stop quoting facts and figures and return to cute sayings and slogans, it would all work out better, I admit it.

I have to admit, I didn’t think the peak oil comment would draw much attention, it’s a small feature of portland that simply shows that they have people with understanding involved in the city, and this subsequent topic drift simply points to yet another great thing about portland, they are working in reality, not fantasy, and they are working for the future, not some misguided attempt to maintain business as usual, the plan most US cities seem to be embracing. So while boring and offtopic, I would consider this as a very concrete demonstration of just how progressive portland is, and why it’s so desirable to live in such an area in these times. Working to the future doesn’t happen by typing short terse comments in forums, it takes actual work, planning, long range changes, development changes, all kinds of things.

Now for the next witty short contentless rebuttals, sigh, repeating something without any actual data or background understanding…. I suggest y’all take it over to theoildrum.com I’ll get a laugh out of reading that, but here, not so much, it’s kind of boring repeating facts that are very well understood outside of the mass media. Another good reason to move somewhere like portland, of course.

hhope,

Please quit derailing a great thread. I know others gave pitched in, but you instigated it. Even if unintentionally.

OP,

The PNW summers rock, but the constant mist/rain is a downer. And I'm on the east side of the Cascades…

Bend or others closer to the mountains sounds ideal IMO.

Flagstaff is beautiful.

The west is open to you. Visit. Heck, visit them all and pick. Goodluck.

"Joe Clement Douglas Ide, while it's always cute to see people, particular guys like you, totally non-critically (yet totally predictably) fall for mainstream media spin and agressive marketing of stock prices, this isn't the thread for that discussion. "

Ah, Harald, such an arrogant ass you are. And not witty at all, to boot!

But you're right, it's not the thread for that discussion, which is why I tried to steer it back to Portland with a little humor. I was rebutting nothing. Of course, because you're so much smarter than the rest of us, you couldn't help yourself, right after saying it wasn't the proper thread, giving yet another of your stuffy dissertation responses anyway. You, sir, often make me laugh, so I guess we're even on that score.

Now for the next insufferable, probably long, haughty response, sigh, repeating something as if the rest of the world is so clueless … I suggest you take it over to Whiteblaze. I'll get a laugh out of reading that, but here, not so much, it's kind of boring reading your dissertations, even though most of us know what's well understood outside of the mass media, regardless of whether you realize that or not….

I grew up in Bend and loved every minute of it. The only issue with Bend is the collapsed economy. So much of the population boom in Bend in the late 90's early 00's provided a glut of construction related work and very little in the way of real, sustainable work. If you can find solid work, Bend is a great place for those who love easy access to the outdoors. I miss the view of the Cascades from my front deck, the smell of sage on the brush covered High Desert, and cool afternoons floating the Deschutes.

I recall Bend being mix of people with a wide spectrum of personal and political beliefs. I hope you're not looking to move to an echo chamber. I'd love to hear Harald explain how Bend is oppressive. I guess it all depends on what you are looking for. I'd move to Bend in a heart beat if there was work for an RF Engineer.

Interestingly, I haven't seen a lot of what Mr. Hope is talking about in the 14 years I've lived in the Portland area. There is lip service paid to getting people out of their vehicles but at least 90% still commute by car. The freeways here during rush hour are just as jammed as those in Seattle. I see more and more crowds, I have to drive farther and farther to find uncrowded trails, etc. I'm also seeing more and more taxes while the local schools are deteriorating. The only reason I decided to stay in this area when I retired is that I developed vision issues and wanted to be where public transport is good and where I have access to high quality specialized medical care. I'm not too sure this was a good decision because my vision issues are now stable and even more so because public transit, especially the light rail, has become so crime-ridden that I don't dare ride it at night. (Sorry, Jennifer, I should have mentioned this in my PM, which was rather hastily composed.) Of course the Portland area is also rather convenient to most of my family (Seattle and the SF Bay area). I therefore probably won't move until I get too feeble to live alone.

As for year around hiking in the Gorge, the place has been iced up for well over a week, with more freezing rain forecast for tonight. A few intrepid hikers are slithering out there to see the icy waterfalls but are bailing on their hikes because conditions are too dangerous. Hopefully things will melt soon, but not in the near future.

Now that I've finished my doom and gloom for the day (partly due to a sick, possibly terminally so, dog), here's a positive piece of advice: Take trips now (not in spring and summer!) to the places you're considering and to some of the other places suggested in this thread or any others that appeal to you.

And here I thought no one would really respond to my original question…ha!

I honestly don't know how I'd do in a rainy winter…we haven't had a proper snowy one here in Chicago in years, and I kind of like dreary weather. Not sure if I would like it day after day after day after day…much like being a lifelong cubs fan, I guess.

I do have two trips planned to Portland coming up, one in February and one in April…and I do have job contacts and meetings already set up. I honestly am not at all worried about employment – I am very lucky that orthopedic physical therapists are quite in demand all over. And the pay ain't bad, either.

I am grateful to everyone for the push more towards Portland rather than one of the smaller communities; as a big city dweller for close to 20 years I do need some vibrancy and grittiness and culture and diversity that you're right, I probably wouldn't find in a truly small town. And those of you who reminded me that once I'm out there I can still hire a truck and relocate to smaller places – absolutely! It's nice to be reminded of that. I do wish Washington had better laws for physical therapy practice, as it does limit me a bit to Oregon.

I hadn't looked into Montana at all…I guess I'm thinking that as a single person looking for a more appropriate social life (yes, I'm hetero…where's the guy from Scotland??) I thought heading to a busier city might be more my speed. At least to start…

This is quite fun…I knew I could count on you folks for a, um, wide variety of opinions!

And Mary, I am SO sorry to hear your dog is ill :(

Yeah, so sad that Hyson is ill.

We had 13 cats. Now we have 4, so we have had to go through that multiple times.

But they provide so much enjoyment when they're with us.

I use Portland mass transit a little.

Max (light rail) is pretty good. Interesting mix of people but I feel comfortable.

I took a bus on N.E. 82nd street. I felt like someone might mug me or something, but that's probably just my own bias.

S.W. Garden Home bus – I felt like MAX, only problem is it only comes once every 45 minutes.

Maybe you'de like N.W. Portland the best. Like "The Pearl" district or around N.W. 20th or whatever.

Yeah where Mary lives is nice, but you got go straight through the crappy area to get to the good. Public trans out there would be scary but the closer you get to the city the safer it is. IMO stay west of 205 (or out in troutdale) and east of 217. North of… mmm maybe well Johnson Creek for sure. Sellwood is cool. Westside is allgood IMO till you get round 217 and west of there. There are pockets of ill willed people in the N and NE but its not as bad as you may hear. St Johns is really cool but sorta inconvenient to get in/ out of it.

If you live in nicer areas and dig the city life I say go straight Pearl Dist. Especially if you work at OSHU. I bet you could ride to the waterfront and up the river to the bottom of the tram and ride it right up. I'd be fun!

This is merely one man's opinion.

Go with what feels best as we can get bogged down in minutia. Every city and even small town has its ups and downs. Think the advice to visit Portland in the "off-season" winter is good but winters in Chicago aren't really balmy either. Crime-wise it all equals out as Seattle and Portland have their crime (being next to a fatal shooting in the pier district of the former myself) but Chicago isn't exactly peace, love, and granola either; I remember a few blocks off of fairly ritzy hotel row on Lake Michigan, having my restaurant order exchanged through bulletproof glass while visiting Chicago .

Big thing is bankroll. Having a large chunk of cash will help ease the transition obviously, so maybe getting a cheaper living situation in Chi-town til you are ready to move. An added bonus is then spending that money in your hopeful Shangri-la. Just my 2 centavos, señorita.

I'm going to have to throw out SF/Berkeley. It is a big city with a small town feel where you are free to express what every you want, especially if you are liberal. With a 3 hour drive north, east, or south you have great backpacking.

A BIG +1 for San Francisco/Berkeley!!!

I'd throw out Boise….. even with that stupid award about being the best place to move to this year, there still aren't many folks here, the economy is picking up very well, and the outdoor access is minutes for the most part….
plus, we tend to leave each other alone.

I've posted earlier about the motives for and advantages obtained from our move from Chicago to Portland 26 years ago.

That said, had I been able to get the same job that I had in Portland, I would have MUCH preferred to have relocated to Idaho or Montana. Wyoming was a distant third as there was absolutely NO chance of equality of employment in my industry.

Boise is the "banana belt" of Idaho. Everywhere else in the state you have far nicer scenery, higher elevations, and a boatload more snow and ice to deal with. As in many NE states, you learn to drive and handle the snow/ice. Oregonians have to learn to deal with 9 months of almost constant, incessant rain. Native-born Oregonians are born with webs between their toes; transplants eventually grow them if we stay long enough. RIBBIT!

A serious point for older folks, OR and WA both have an estate tax, while ID. MT, and WY do not. If you have kids to whom you wish to leave a significant financial legacy, you need to seriousy consider this when relocating. The federal inheritance tax carries a 5 million dollar exemption; each state has their own levels. OR allows only 1 million before Salem holds out its hand.

OR and MTR do not have sales taxes. WA and WY do not have a state income tax. In both OR and ID, your social security income is not taxable by the state.

Having graduated from the Univ of Montan (Missoula) and lived in ID for many years, I can say without reservation, that ID would be my personal preference over MT and WY, mostly because of the ease of air transportation between us and our grown kids.

I love Boise. Had to work there a few years ago, making several 1 week trips over a 6 month period. At first I wasn't excited about going there — guess I should have done some research first. Anyway, I found it enchanting. Even has a theatre in the round in a most wonderful downtown environment.

One warning though; I found the populace to be infatuated with broncos; not the four-legged species, but the gridiron species.

Very easy to get around in a car, unless the broncos are engaged in combat. Easy in and out of the airport too.

It would be a great place to relocate to.

This map is relatively accurate (although I have no idea why Gresham is doing so well):

Move to and work in Vancouver, WA. so you can enjoy 0% state income tax but Portland is just across the river where you can get your bigish city fix and enjoy Oregon's 0% sales tax for when you need to buy gear.

Vancouver is not too far away from St. Helens and the Cascades in general.

You can't go wrong with either state but I'm biased towards Washington.

P.S. Voodoo Doughnut is reason enough to move to Portland though.

As another very liberal person, but one who started in the SF and ended up in a very small, rural, conservative Alaskan town, here are a few thoughts.

I've always like mid-sized college town, especially those with pretty elite schools. Northampton, Amherst, Ann Arbor, Madison, even Lawrence. Eugene in Oregon. There's a lot going on culturally and intellectually without the traffic, dirt, and crime problems of big cities. Also, property values aren't so crazy so you needn't work so many hours each week to pay the mortgage.

Although Seattle and Portland have big recreation (overnight stuff and skiing) closer than the Bay Area does, the regional parks in the SF area are real gems. To take a 3 or 5 or 10 or 20 mile hike before or after work from a trailhead 20-30 minutes away (0 to 3 minutes if you find the right location) is not available to most people. And as much as I self-identify as a backpacker, I have to admit that more of my miles each year are on day hikes and day ski trips.

I'd also point out some of the advantages of smaller more rural towns: Housing and really spectacular land is far, far cheaper. We know MD – MD/PhD couples who struggle with their mortgage for a very boring SF house. They aren't on the 13 acres of spruce forest with 700 feet of sandy beach and views across the salt water of glaciated volcanos that we have. And our house payment looks more like the electric bill than a CA or WA house payment. On top of that, professions pay better here. Sometimes a lot better. That seems backwards, but it is supply and demand. Docs, lawyers, engineers, etc, gravitate to the big cities and there is an oversupply. Any professional with a pulse can hang their shingle in a small town and one with some skill and dedication is quickly fully booked and greatly appreciated. We each work about 3 days a week and therefore have time to be with our kids, volunteer, exercise, and travel. That wouldn't be so easy in a metropolitan area. Sure, I'm the only un-armed, truckless guy I know, but I still get invited on hunting trips because I'm a heck of a sherpa. And while there aren't many liberals, we got to know them all very quickly so we actually felt much connected after 6 months in town, than after 3 years in Seattle.

While I'm sure the Vancouver comment is well intentioned, don't move to Vancouver.

(See the above map, at the bottom of the key)