I am going to Philmont this June 26th – July 10th. It is my understanding that the overnight temperatures at this time will be around 45, but could drop into the high 30s. After studying the philosophies on this site, I purchased a JacksRBetter Sierra Sniveller quilt and Thermarest Neo Air mattress. This past weekend I camped out on a night that was supposed to be 45 degrees, but actually dipped to freezing as my camp stool was covered with frost the next morning.
I started the night under the quilt while also wearing Stoic 200 Merino Wool tops and bottoms, wool socks, along with a Mountain Hardwear Dome Perignon hat. At bedtime it was around 50 degrees and I was not cold. I woke up cold around 1AM and also put on my Patagonia Nano Puff pullover. I woke up again at 4AM just as cold as I could be and never got warm.
I would have thought that wearing those clothes under that down quilt would have been warm. I don't consider myself a cold sleeper, so I'm worried that I'm going to freeze to death at Philmont, even if the temps are at 45 degrees (the Nano Puff doesn't really keep me warm at 45 degrees either).
One reason I decided on the quilt is that I'm a big guy… 5'10" and 230 lbs (although I'll be at 200 for Philmont) and all but my wide model synthetic sleeping bag is too tight on me. I am now considering getting a Montbell UL Super Spiral Down Hugger bag. Most people on this site have gotten the #3 bag, but I'm afraid that would be too cold. I'm looking at the #1 15 degree bag, but I'm worried that's overkill for Philmont.
Do any of you have some thoughts/suggestions on what I should do?

