"I can't see how they would pop out of mine either as you describe, the stitching of that webbing piece is complete, except for the very bottom where the stay normally enters"
We met a father/son hiking team on the AT in Virginia last month. The son had an Arc Haul; Dad said it was the first one off the production line. He also said that one of the stays had popped out of the top, and that he had contacted Joe and was able to fix it on the trail. (Not sure about the fix, or how permanent it was.)
Looking at how the stay is inserted on my pack, there is a flat webbing channel for the stay, then the webbing piece that holds the mesh back panel goes over the open top of the channel to hold the stay in place — this is true at both ends of the stay.
I do not see how a stay could pop out of this under load (not without a seam giving way), but I do see how it could come apart when the arc is not under tension, and then pop out when the arc is pulled tight.
Photo of stay with webbing loose:

Photo of stay with webbing over top where it normally rides:


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Sorry about the shadows.
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I too was wondering if the belt may be too small. I feel like it's about right, but there's enough webbing to play around with that sizing up to a medium might be a safe bet. On my Ohm 2.0 the pads of their medium size belt were just about touching so I had to move to a small. Two different companies, I know, but I felt safe going with the small belt from ZPacks because of this. I'm thinking I'll grab a medium belt and a lumbar pad as well and try out a few options.
