Snowpack in California

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/interactive/html/map.html?ql=station&zoom=7&loc=42.115+N%2C+122.939+W&var=ssm_depth&dy=2017&dm=5&dd=17&dh=6&snap=1&o5=1&o6=1&o9=1&o12=1&o13=1&lbl=m&o7=1&mode=pan&extents=us&min_x=-124.81666666667&min_y=39.874999999996&max_x=-121.06666666667&max_y=42.124999999996&coord_x=-122.94166666667&coord_y=40.999999999996&zbox_n=&zbox_s=&zbox_e=&zbox_w=&metric=0&bgvar=dem&shdvar=shading&palette=1&title=1&width=1000&height=600&nw=1000&nh=600&h_o=2&font=0&js=1&uc=0

The NOAA snow model is pretty good

I was just in Trinity Alps.  Didn’t get above about 4700 feet.  It looked like there was snow starting at about 6000 feet.

I’m sure those passes like Deer Creek have a bunch of snow, but that might be doable,  June 21 I bet there’ll still be snow but it will be more doable, and only those short sections at highest altitudes

I’m planning to lead a group of 5 to hike the northern half of the JMT, Vermillion Valley Resort to Yosemite Valley, starting on August 11th.

I don’t know about monitoring conditions for the Trinity Alps, but there are several facebook groups that are actively monitoring conditions in the High Sierra between Yosemite and Whitney:  “John Muir Trail” and “John Muir Trail Hikers 2017”

From what I’ve been reading, the melt is on, and there is so much snow that not only are getting over passes a concern, but a lot of the creeks are currently impassible, including Evolution Creek, Bear Creek (east of Lake Thomas Edison) and Mono Creek (Northeast of Lake Thomas Edison).   Waters are fast and deep.

I wonder how conditions will change by June 21.

Heck, I’m wondering how conditions will be on the 11,000 foot passes by August 11.

Here’s a photo taken this week of the Kaiser Pass Road heading to Vermillion Valley Resort.  Unclear what elevation this was at.

This photo was take May 31 at Sonora Pass(Elev.: 9,624′) on Hwy 108, 35 miles as the crow flies north of Tuolumne Meadows.

Is it realistic to expect all that snow to melt this summer?

In the heat of summer snow melts fast

If there’s twice as much snow, it doesn’t take twice as long to melt off.  Maybe several extra weeks.

Good to start planning now Jeff – I have a SEKI loop permit starting the week after your trip. Mid August may very well look like early July on the high passes. There was a year back in the early to mid 90’s like that in CO – summer (snow free) never completely came to the high areas that year. May be a good year to carry a Camp Corsa axe and a light pair of microspikes in the Sierras.

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/queryMonthly?PPS

124″ of snow measured on May 30 at 11,300′ June east of Summit Lake at Piute Pass ?

Lester –

At least 4 of us have Kahtoola Microspikes.

Two of us (me and my rock climbing buddy) have mountaineering experience (Rainier, Mt Olympus) and would be comfortable with use of ice axes as self arrest tools.

The other three would not, and I don’t foresee us having an opportunity to train them in self arrest technique before getting out there.  I already own a Black Diamond Raven ice axe.  I could certainly get the lighter Camp Corsa’s for the other three party members, but they wouldn’t know how to use them.

So the concern continues.  Do we hope conditions improve by the time we get out there, or cancel our recently booked plane tickets and do a trip elsewhere.  :-/

I looked at Google Earth again. The new Google version doesn’t have dates on the image, but the old version which will run on other browsers does. The image I was looking at is 1 week old. So, the pass above Granite Lake in the Trinitys is very snowy, but the trip up to Canyon Creek Lakes looks fine.

and that’s what the NOAA snow model says : )

and looking up at 7500 foot ridges from Stuart Fork, which is the same elevation as Granite Creek Pass, there was a lot of snow up there still

A couple years ago I could go up and over Granite Creek pass when there was snow around, a little less than now, but wimped out trying to go over the Deer Creek pass, which is steep on the Deer Lake side.

Not the best resolution but good if you want to see how it changes from day to day:

https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=geographic&l=MODIS_Aqua_SurfaceReflectance_Bands721,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines&t=2017-06-05&z=3&v=-129.07882345994946,34.59428679271175,-112.96129628603644,42.935107105211735

(You may have to copy the full link to your web browser.)

Jeff – always best to have a backup plan, but that’s harder to do when plane tickets are involved. Maybe looks at some backup options in the Sierras that would have less snow and easy last minute permits on your travel dates. I have little familiarity with the area outside the JMT, but you could likely do a trip consisting of two or three shorter backpacks in areas less likely to have much snow in mid August. Little Yosemite Valley comes to mind, maybe accessed from Wawona Tunnel or some other less-used trailhead?

Lester – so much easier said than done.

Not only due to the hassle of getting permits, but also because we’ll be putting a deposit down on the shuttle service between Fresno and Vermillion Valley Resort, and also mailing resupply packages to Red’s Meadow and Tuolumne.  $40.00 per package to Red’s PLUS shipping, which will also be significant.

Another option is to plan to leave a day early and find a place to practice self arrest right before your trip begins. And if recent reports show minimal snow on the passes, then just use the extra day for more acclimatization if you like. Also, if you time your daily camps and hiking so that you go over the passes in the early afternoon (softer snow), basic self arrest skills should be all anyone needs. The S side of Seldon pass has some steeper bits if I recall, but Silver and Donahue are more moderate in slope angle if I recall correctly (best to confirm this beta with folks who have done those passes with snow).

Have you ever been over Goodale Pass?  That’s where our permit is taking us out of Vermillion.  It looked like a gentler approach up the Graveyard Meadow valley compared to going up Mono Creek and over Silver Pass, at least until the final climb.

When I booked the permit back in February the snow depths weren’t looking to be so epic for summer.

Now that I’m comparing the two passes using Caltopo’s gradient slope shading, it looks like Goodale Pass has steeper sections descending off the pass toward Papoose Lake, which would be on the northern aspect of the ridge.

Crap.  I’m wondering if I should try to call the USFS permit office and ask about changing my permit to Mono Creek / Silver Pass.

No experience with Goodale Pass. Would be best to consult with some locals about it and the other pass steep sections.

Of course it is hard to predict all the variables, but in some circumstances if you need an ice axe to be safe, you might also need crampons, not microspikes. I am trying to figure out if I will also need snowshoes. Same problem. Could be a lot of ice, or could be pothole hell. Or something in-between.

Jeff – by August 11 I think you will be fine, I would expect some patches of snow, but I would also expect that folks will have been through before you so a well-trodden path will exist. I would stick with the Goodale plan, unless you have some member of your group who would be very uncomfortable (and thus unsafe) on that one possible stretch of steeper (though not very steep to my eye looking at the map) snow just above Papoose. SIlver Pass is gentler, and being on the JMT there is no doubt that there will be a deep trench through any remaining snow due to the PCT and JMT traffic. Whether you can switch your permit I don’t know but I rather doubt it. Personally I would not bother with the microspikes in august, but I have plenty of experience on steep summer snow without any kid of traction device beyond a ski pole/walking stick.

I would expect to have to do some wading still – though on your route I don’t think you face any serious creeks without bridges. I would also expect serious skeeters and be well prepared with headnets, bug juice, and shelter that provides a refuge from the buzzing hordes.

To hear the latest on both conditions and skeeters :

http://www.highsierratopix.com/community/viewforum.php?f=34

Thanks, Paul.

There were two encouraging posts to JMT Facebook groups within the last 24 hours that I thought worthy of sharing.  First this one:

This is Strider from the Mt. Williamson Motel & Baser Camp reporting for John Colver on Tuesday June 6, 2017.

John’s thoughts on impassible river detours, snow and whether to hike or not (this is a longer post).
“In my experience, Evolution Creek was not difficult, but fordable with care and teamwork. The water is deep, but slow moving, due to the topography which creates large bends in a flat meadow.
It seems that North Fork of Mono Creek and Bear Creek will remain impassable until water levels recede.

An alternate route to avoid Bear Creek from Bishop Pass north, or an entrance from the west (Florence Lake or Edison Lake) would be:

1) From Muir Trail Ranch take Florence Lake Trail to Florence Lake Resort – 9 miles (or 4.5 miles once Ferry is operating).
2) Road walk north (or hitch) 13 miles to Thomas Edison Lake.
3) Take Goodale Pass Trail to rejoin JMT/PCT at 10545 elevation 1 mile north of Silver Pass.

Regarding snow: I’ve observed is many afternoon ‘wet slides’ as well as some post holing, but also, as the melt/freeze cycles continue – a very firm snowpack, which is easy to walk on early in the day. I have not carried snowshoes and have been completing 10 – 15 miles per day. Our team has also benefited from direct routes, glissading and walking across frozen lakes. From a snow travel perspective – travel has been very efficient and straightforward.

For anyone thinking about whether to go or not go — I feel that to experience the Sierra Nevada in 2017, will be so beautiful and spectacular that anyone who
has the opportunity, should consider it.

The ‘Range of light’ may pose some challenges, but there are many bail-out options. I am very grateful to be up here. I may or may not, make it through
to Yosemite and then North, but for now – I am captivated by this range. The rivers are beautiful beyond my comprehension. The mountains are as they ever were. This year has more snow than normal, the rivers are experiencing record levels of flow… and it is exceedingly beautiful.”

and then this one:

This is Strider from the Mt. Williamson Motel & Base Camp reporting for John Colver on Thursday June 8, 2017.

“After a rest at Lake Edison, we headed out under a crimson sky at dawn. Not unsurprisingly, this has turned into some grey skies and a breezy day!
The cloud cover and wind made for firm snow conditions and we covered a good 15 miles to camp at Lake Virginia, just north of Fish Creek. I’m glad we
added this side trip. From the lake this morning we enjoyed bare trail for about 4 miles and then perfect snow conditions All the way up to an over Goodale Pass.
The pass is a lovely broad pass and it was interesting to see sand and sandstone. I imagine the slabs that form terraces, of sorts, will make great picnic or
nap spots as the passed is approached or descended. The highlight of my day was the forest from Lake Edison to the pass. Personally, I’ve never seen so many
varieties of pine all together. Add to that the colors from flowers and the reflections of blues and greens in Cold Creek (which the trail follows) all offset
by the white of the snow… it was a beautiful and tranquil way to start the day. Birds are out in force too, chickadees, jays, finches and some grouse were
all making their presence felt. Some fresh bear tracks, longer than my size 11 boots, and three times as wide, seemed to complete the sense that everything is
changing quickly in the Sierra. Cold Creek and Fish Creek were raging, but not overflowing their banks.
From a hiking perspective, it’s great to walk on and with the weeks of melt/freeze cycles it is becoming very firm. My sense is that this snow will last longer
and probably more of its water will end up in the ground and rivers as opposed to being lost to sublimation? Especially in the forests, where there is shade
and protection from wind – and in the north facing gullies and slopes – it seems that the snow is in no hurry to go anywhere. On the other hand, each day, there
is noticeably more bare ground and rocks on south facing slopes – as well as plenty of bare trail up to 9000 feet.”

I’m encouraged by these two reports from John Colver that, if anything, my choice to get a permit going  over Goodale Pass rather than Mono Creek / Silver Pass was a good choice.

It sounds like high waters on Mono Creek will continue to be a problem though maybe not for August hikers like me.  Also, John didn’t mention having any issues going over Goodale, and even though he’s much more experience than me, conditions should improve in the 9 weeks before I arrive.