- Sep 8, 2017 at 8:04 pm #3489983
Sean Ranney set off this morning from Whitney Portal. His SPOT signal is patchy, but I estimate that he started at 4:30am, and reached Glen Pass at 6:00pm. That looks like a well judged pace, about 1.5 hours ahead of schedule for the unsupported record.Sep 8, 2017 at 8:04 pm #3489985Sep 9, 2017 at 6:12 am #3490036
It looks like Sean slept a few hours yesterday evening somewhere between Arrowhead Lake and the Woods Creek junction, and was heading up Pinchot by 11pm. He slowed a little from yesterday’s stellar pace – it was dark of course, and the forecast said 70% chance of showers. But overall his pacing looks perfect, he reached the S Fork of the Kings at 4:00am, which I think is now about 2.5 hours ahead of record pace.
Weather ahead looks quite cold and showery, maybe thunderstorms. Not easy, but not impossible. Here’s the forecast for the top of Muir Pass:
Sep 9, 2017 at 10:09 am #3490067
- This reply was modified 6 months, 2 weeks ago by Ralph Burgess.
Ken T.BPL Member
Thanks Ralph. Always interesting to see how things pan out. Will be watching.Sep 9, 2017 at 10:24 am #3490070
Looks like Sean took another break for a few hours at the S Fork of the King’s.
By my reckoning, Mather Pass at 8:30 am puts him about on schedule to match the record, but I think the weather is probably challenging out there.Sep 9, 2017 at 2:14 pm #3490092
Based on what I pieced together from Andy’s times, Andy arrived at Mather Pass at 24h elapsed, and left at 27h elapsed (caveat: these are old notes, and I’m not sure where I got them from).
Sean left Mather at around 27h 48m elapsed, so very close, but a bit behind Andy at this point (and of course, it’s early). Leor left Mather at 25h 16m.
The next comparison I have is McClure Meadow. I have Andy arriving at 37h, resting, and departing at 38h 5m.
(edit to add: I assumed Sean left Whitney Portal at 4:45AM)
Sep 9, 2017 at 10:02 pm #3490142
- This reply was modified 6 months, 2 weeks ago by Adam White.
We just got a ping at 8:20pm near Evolution Lake, so Sean got over Muir Pass. His pace over the Pass was slower, I don’t think the weather has been kind to him. The weather forecast looks a little better going forward, but still 30-40% thundershowers and cold temperatures.Sep 9, 2017 at 10:18 pm #3490146
Thanks for the heads-up, Ralph.
Looks like he’ll be a few hours off Andy’s time by the time he arrives at McClure Meadow. As I said above, Andy arrived at 37h elapsed, and left at 38h 05m elapsed; at Evolution Lake (still a few miles from McClure Meadow), Sean is at 40h 25m elapsed or so.
For another comparison: Sean was atop Muir in about 37h 45m; Leor was there in about 33h 34m. Our own Ralph was there in 34h 32m, but of course, he went the wrong way at the top…Sep 10, 2017 at 6:27 am #3490161
Sean is on the climb above MTR at 3:30am. His pacing here depends on how much sleep he has had, it’s hard to know because the SPOT signal has been, well, spotty. If he has already taken a second sleep somewhere and is well rested, he is quite close to record pace. If he needs a sleep soon, then he is a few hours behind.
Sep 10, 2017 at 9:49 am #3490174
- This reply was modified 6 months, 2 weeks ago by Ralph Burgess.
I do think he stopped once on the switchbacks climbing out of MTR. Based on split speeds, maybe once more between Piute Creek and the MTR cut-off.
Andy arrived at the Mono Creek footbridge well ahead of when Sean will, but Andy took a mind-bending 7 hour rest there. I think that Sean will probably arrive (and depart) the Mono Creek footbridge within an hour or two of Andy’s time.
So, I agree: he’s quite close to record pace, but the question is rest (and quality of rest).
In any case, go Sean!
Here’s a summary of what I’ve guesstimated. I added a column for Andy’s time that shows the time that Andy departed that location.Sep 10, 2017 at 10:12 am #3490175
Selden Pass at about 7:15am.
I think that puts him about 2.5 hours behind record pace – provided that he got some sleep last night, that schedule assumes just one more short sleep tonight. Given the weather and cold temperatures, I think he’s doing remarkably well.Sep 10, 2017 at 2:21 pm #3490210
Looks like he passed the Mono Creek footbridge sometime around noon.
That puts him about 75 minutes behind Andy’s time leaving the footbridge, but Sean is almost certainly not as well rested as Andy was at that point.
Still, very promising that Sean is moving well.Sep 10, 2017 at 2:59 pm #3490218
Mono Creek around midday. Maintaining pace well, holding around 2.5 hours behind record pace. That’s right around Brett Maune’s pace, very impressive under these conditions.
ETA: missed your post Adam. I’m measuring his pace against Andrew’s total time, but not Andrew’s splits – I worked out (and tested pretty extensively) a timing schedule that I think represents a constant-effort pace taking into account terrain, with 3 x 3-4 hour sleeps in the early part of each night.Sep 10, 2017 at 6:30 pm #3490248
Silver Pass at 3:30pm. With 82 miles to cover in 24h, I have Sean about 4 hours behind record pace, since I think he will surely need to rest again for a few hours somewhere. The record is not out of reach, but it would require a superhuman effort from here.Sep 10, 2017 at 10:03 pm #3490281
Lake Virginia at 8:18pm, or about 63h 33m elapsed. He’s either gotten some rest or is moving very sluggishly; the intermittence of his SPOT messages makes it difficult to discern between the two.
He’d need to average about 3.82 mph from here on in to match Andy’s time, so I dare say that’s out of reach.
To go sub-4 days, he’d need to average around 2.29 mph from here on in. That seems within reach, but he’s been moving slower than that this afternoon.Sep 11, 2017 at 12:21 am #3490301
Allen CBPL Member
@acurranoLocale: SF Bay Area
Just got home after a relatively short run in the Wasatch, looks like Sean has been pushing hard but the weather slowed him down some. It’s pretty tough to keep moving fast in bad weather out there. I know he really wants to finish, I would bet he has his sights set on a sub-4 day JMT at this point.Sep 11, 2017 at 8:40 am #3490331
It looks like Sean got a little rest in the Red’s Meadow area. He last ping was above Minaret Creek at 6:15am. He has about 56 miles to go. An average speed of 2.5 mph from here would put him under 4 days, that’s select company for an unsupported run.Sep 11, 2017 at 10:05 am #3490351
Art …BPL Member
Allen – Wasatch is one of my favorite courses. didn’t run it this year but saw your name on the list. slightly shorter than JMT but a great effort by you !Sep 11, 2017 at 10:17 am #3490355
andrew bentzBPL Member
@abentzLocale: Wasatch Front
Hey guys. Pretty fun watching him on this run. Hope he gets that sub 4 day. He had me pretty nervous (also excited for him) for a while there!Sep 11, 2017 at 11:14 am #3490372
Sean is on the bluffs above Garnet at 9:45am, about 46 miles to go. A familiar spot – that’s where I abandoned my first attempt in 2015. The forecast at Tuolumne is 50% thunderstorms, although at least the wind has dropped a little. He’s maintaining the 2.5 mph that he needs to go under 4 days, but it will be difficult because that average speed doesn’t factor in any more rest stops, and he would still need to go through almost the entire night tonight.Sep 11, 2017 at 2:27 pm #3490413
1pm, it looks like Sean has abandoned at Thousand Island Lake and is heading south on the River Trail toward Agnew Meadows.Sep 11, 2017 at 2:58 pm #3490420
An eternal optimist would say that it’s just one errant ping that is neither on the JMT nor on the River Trail; it’s GPS error, and Sean is really headed over Island Pass.
Someone with slightly more realist leanings would note that it looks like Sean paused for a few tens of minutes on the climb out of Thousand Island Lake towards Island Pass, did some soul-searching, then decided to turn around.
That seems more credible, but the next ping should solidify things.
Maybe he got some beta on conditions in the valley. After all he’s been through, I’m not sure I’d want to descend into this:Sep 11, 2017 at 5:23 pm #3490434
That ping is right on the River Trail. The trail is not shown on the map.Sep 11, 2017 at 5:55 pm #3490441
Scott BentzBPL Member
@scottbentzLocale: Southern California
Wow, it’s got to be so hard to pull off the trail. I am sure he’s hurting pretty good. I am always amazed how these recent attempts have been so diced and dissected to the minute. Everyone starts out ahead of Andrews pace and I am sure this will be the attempt that is going to be the new FKT. Then, slowly but surely, the times get slower and slower. Those who follow these attempts and have never hiked the whole JMT can’t realize how hard this trail is. It’s just so relentless. 86,000 feet of ascent and descent just tears you up. Then add the sun, wind, rain, and especially no sleep. I hiked the JMT with Andrew in 13 days and that was plenty fast for me!
Looking forward to reading his trip report.
Sep 11, 2017 at 6:26 pm #3490451
- This reply was modified 6 months, 1 week ago by Scott Bentz.
Looks like he is safely out and somebody picked him up, pings from the highway now.
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