Philmont Summer 2018 Drought Forecast

[Edgar M]

Good morning!  I thought it would be a good idea to bring up the subject of the forecast for drought conditions to continue in New Mexico this summer.  http://www.climas.arizona.edu/blog/southwest-climate-outlook-march-2018-climate-summary

I’ve been to Philmont twice, 2013 and 2016, and will be going again this summer.  All three of our trips have been in June.  In 2013, we had extreme drought conditions, the same that is forecast for 2018.  The difference between 2013 and this year is that the former was at least the third consecutive year of persistent drought conditions.  The current conditions are the result of lower precipitation this past winter (El Nino/La Nina?)

Here’s what I learned in 2013 that I will be keeping in mind this summer:

1.  Most importantly, trail camps that are supposed to have water, may now be dry.  Normally reliable water sources along your way, may no longer be reliable.  Camps that had wells were still functioning, lakes/creeks were not a reliable source.  Since drought conditions only started recently, this may not be an issue.  Be prepared.
2. Its always important to take pictures/notes of the “water board” to know where water is/is not available.  It is doubly important in drought years.  While still in base camp, make sure you mark reliable water sources on your map, even if not on your direct route.  You never know when you will need to make a detour.

[Edgar M]

3. Its going to be dusty.  You will be finding Phil-dirt in your gear for months if not years.  You will be dirty as hell for days.  Resign yourself to this fact early.

4.There is a higher chance of wildfires.  Philmont will probably have implemented higher threat level precautions.  For us, this will typically means no camp fires and being more careful than normal with our stoves.  For the staff, it is means being in a constant state of readiness for evacuations.  You can help with this by making sure you are where you need to be (i.e. in the right camp) when you are scheduled to be there.  You should also check in and out of every staffed camp you may pass through.  In 2013, there was a wild fire just south of Philmont property.  It never entered Philmont, but as a precaution, the south country was evacuated for a few days.  Our itinerary was re-routed to the north.  Although we were frustrated at the time, in hindsight Philmont did a wonderful job of coordinating the chaos.  Be flexible and patient if this happens.

5.If you have a shower in your itinerary where the water is heated by a wood fired boiler, don’t expect a hot shower.  In 2013, this impacted Sawmill, and probably others (Beaubien?)  We did have hot/warm showers in Cimarroncito, Clark’s Fork, and Dean Cow in 2013.  I also think the showers in Miners Park and Zastrow are gas heated (from our 2016 trip)

I’ll add more as I think of it.  Please pass on any information you may have.  I’m particularly interested in how the drought will affect the North County/Valle Vidal, especially the creek/river that runs through Greenwood.

[AT Grimaldi]

We are going on 5JUL18 and find this experience and sharing VERY helpful.  Marking on the map is critical.  Thanks for that one.

When purifying water, can you tell me your process?  I know they give us Micropur pills, but wasnt sure how to sift out the larger stuff if you filter at all.

– ATG

[Edgar M]

We brought a sawyer gravity filter both times but rarely used it.  The one time I did, it clogged up quickly.  I don’t plan on bringing one this time.  If I’m concerned about chunky water, I’ll pass it through my bandana to get out the larger pieces before treating with the Micropur.

[AT Grimaldi]

<p style=”text-align: center;”>Thanks</p>

[David Y]

Your water needs are so great at Philmont, maybe double of most climates, that filtering becomes a problem. Filtering that much water takes a long time and so much water passing through most filters clogs them quickly. Some filters cannot be cleaned (unclogged) in the field.

Just collect the clearest water available and rely on the Micropur to purify it.

[William Harmon]

I agree with David about filtering time. I went on trek in 2013 in mid-July and worked in ’15 and ’16, so very different years in terms of water. In 2013 I can’t recall filtering any water, just using the provided tablets. We were in the north country and Valle Vidal, which may be a little wetter than the south, but I have no proof of that. It was dry enough that most of the water was only flowing in streams, there were no real seasonal ponds that I saw, unlike in ’15.

Personally, I am content with a little grit in my water, so long as it is treated chemically. However, you should have a bandana that you could place over your bottle to filter the biggest particles. I have heard from PCT hikers that this works best with larger-mouth bottles (e.g., not Smartwater bottles or narrow mouth Nalgenes), so keep that in mind. In watching crews deal with filtering, I specifically recall going with one crew to get water and waiting 10-15 minutes for them to filter everything. This was also a small contingent sent (3-4 people) from the campsite to the creek, so it might be faster with everyone present. If you want some faster filtration times, I might suggest having everyone carry a Sawyer Squeeze (not the Mini!) or a Katadyn BeFree. The Mini clogs pretty quickly, compared to the regular Squeeze, so it may not be worth it. The Katadyn is advertised to have a slightly faster flow rate (2 liters/min vs 1.7 liters/min), although they are close enough, it may be insignificant.

[Rachel P]

I know everyone is talking about water filtration but I wanted to post something in relation to the drought update. Carson National Forest (incl Valle Vidal and Elliott Barker Wildlife area) is implementing Stage 1 fire restrictions next week starting May 7th.

My husband and I were up at Valle Vidal for an overnight trip this weekend and it sure was dry. Very little snow up on the mountains and just a little on the ground near Little Costilla in shady spots. A lot of the livestock ponds were dry but of course we were only in one small section of the Vidal on the Colfax County side (close to Iris Park). We did see some ponds with water, too, but it didn’t look like April there.

Off the topic question — we noticed a ton of young ponderosas in the burn zones from the 2002 fire. Does anyone know how they got planted? I was wondering if Boy Scouts helped plant seedlings perhaps? It was impressive how many were growing and I’ve never heard of them being seeded by air but it’s certainly a possibility.

[David Y]

The heat of forest fires releases pine cone seeds to reseed to forest. And the cycle of life goes on, without the hand of man.

[Rachel P]

I was wondering if that was possible. Where I live in the Jemez mountains that has not happened at all. We’ve had two crown fires (Cerro Grande 2000, Las Conchas, 2011) and trees have not come up like I saw in Valle Vidal.

[Author]

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