Hurricane Hillary threatens PCT and JMT

Hurricane Hillary ran for president

Hurricane Hilary is about to hit L.A.

I am surprised how long the bad jokes took to appear.

I was supposed to be in the middle of a JMT thru and, now, fortunately we had to postpone it until next year.

I fear for Death Valley.  I has been hammered a couple of times over the past few years, and this could damage things even more seriously.  sigh.

I fear for Palm Springs

I fear for Palm Springs

There’s tons of electricity generating windmills in that area–and probably sun farms too. I wonder how they’ll fare.

Good chance some rains from it will help control the wildfires in NorCal and Oregon though.

https://www.koin.com/weather/tale-of-two-forecasts-hilary-splits-oregons-weather-in-half/

https://thatoregonlife.com/2023/08/wildfires-hurricane-hilary/

It’ll be different in two halves of the state:

.. Data from the National Weather Service suggests that by next Wednesday, Portland might receive approximately 0.17 inches of rain. Other regions, such as Bend and Burns, could potentially receive 0.51 and 0.71 inches respectively. This expected rainfall could provide much-needed relief, particularly in the context of the ongoing wildfires, including the prominent Lookout Fire.

I fear for Palm Springs

Thanks, Jerry.

Overreaction by government and media so far? Light rain on and off for past 10 hours and now starting to get heavier. We replaced our roof about 7 years ago. Flash floods possible, but unlikely to affect our street.

Predicted winds of 30-40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph, which isn’t an unusual occurrence here.

Going to be a lot worse in Joshua Tree NP. The western boundary is about 10 miles east of us, as the crow flies.

I fear for Palm Springs

There’s tons of electricity generating windmills in that area–and probably sun farms too. I wonder how they’ll fare.

Windmills don’t generate electricity until the wind is 8-9 mph. Peak output is at 31-55 mph. If the wind goes above 55 mph, the windmill is shut down. The windmill will still change its position to face the wind, and will adjust the angle of the blades in this shut down mode. So windmills have to have electricity to them 24/7 — they consume electricity if the wind is too low or too high. Backup generators kick in if the grid goes down.

75 mph gusts are not uncommon in our “wind belt” so they are well engineered for extreme weather events.

I keep seeing maps of the hurricane path with Palm Springs dead in it’s path

I think rain is the biggest problem.  In the desert it doesn’t absorb into the ground so creates flash floods.  As long as you’re not in the path of a flood you should be okay.

Those desert areas (like L.A.) have these huge alluvial fans where large rainstorms carry rocks and soil down the mountain into the valley.  A little more material will be added to the alluvial fans.

Those desert areas are really nice because you can see all the geology.  No obnoxious trees to obscure everything like in Oregon.

No taking my trailer up 62?

“75 mph gusts are not uncommon in our “wind belt” so they are well engineered for extreme weather events.”

I was thinking more of the impact of 6 inches of rain in 24 hours, but the rain total forecasts have come way down. It’s looking like the storm is a bit oversold, but we’ll see. The Sierra are another matter. three or four inches with high winds at altitude still seems entirely possible to me…but I’m guessing. It’s gonna be a mess no matter what. Sierra soil is incredibly thin, so runoff will be an issue. As in, rain running off into your tent.

Stay safe Nick! the night sky should look great once this thing passes.

A good rain will clear out the brush in the canyons and make for easier backcountry travel. The north fork of Whitewater comes to mind.

“Overreaction by government and media so far? ”

They’re damned if they do, and damned if they don’t.

Best to plan for a worst case.  If it turns out worse than predicted and people die that could have been prevented with more preperation, it would be a shame.  People will want to “hold officials accountable”.  Charge with crimes.  Officials will be forced to resign…

Now, if government officials intentionally exaggerate because they think it will scare people into compliance, that deserves criticism in my opinion.  It’s long term counter productive if the people stop believing officials.

I think it’s criminal if politicians demonize government officials for their own political gain.  Say that government officials always exaggerate, “don’t believe them”.  In my opinion.

Nick is just trying to provoke me into saying something chaffy : )

Oversold

Probably better to error on the side of caution in case the lawsuits fly.   There’s been some head scratching verdicts before and I could see govt officials/politicians warning if there’s rain, members of the public could indeed get wet!

“There is no way in or out of Palm Springs” the mayor said

If that’s true, then it wasn’t oversold.

For days ahead I saw maps showing palm springs as the center of the hurricane path.

Of course I know nick is in Palm Springs so that caught my attention.

I think the forecasts were pretty accurate

It’s long term counter productive if the people stop believing officials.

I saw this as a resident of New Orleans in the 90s. Officials were always telling people to evacuate, and then the hurricanes were duds. People started to ignore the officials.

Unfortunately, Katrina was not a dud.

[I’m not saying this is the situation in CA, I have no first-hand knowledge of the conditions there.]

Nick is just trying to provoke me into saying something chaffy : )

No, not at all. Weather forecasting is like weather — somewhat unpredictable.

What was accurate was the hurricane would become a tropical storm once it hit the U.S.

I have lived here for 45 years. Deserts do get the occasional big rain — several inches in a single day. Given this, it is very predictable what areas will flood — low lying areas with poor drainage — the same places always get flooded in big storms.

Cathedral City, which borders Palm Springs on the south and east, usually has the biggest problems down here during storms, which was the case this weekend.

Thousand Palms, an unincorporated area with little infrastructure, and, which is close to the Little San Bernardino Mountains and Joshua Tree often has big floods. Predictable and it happened this weekend.

Winds impacted areas south and east of Palm Springs. The further south, the greater the impact.

Palm Springs received about 3.25 inches of rain, which was around the average of the cities in the Coachella Valley. I live near the base of Mt. San Jacinto (10K+ feet above our house), which got almost 12 inches of rain. We had no flooding in our neighborhood; we never do. There was flooding in the downtown area — another predictable. Very little wind at the house. Knocked some dry leaves off our Eucalyptus tree. We’ve had several big wind storms this year (remember my post about the Haboob?). This wasn’t one.

The only surprise was I-10 got flooded and had to be closed down overnight. That is a first, IIRC.

There is no way in or out of Palm Springs” the mayor said

If that’s true, then it wasn’t oversold.

Ha! A politician. She got a lot of press and was interviewed on several national outlets. Palm Springs is really a sleepy little town. Not much happens here. The big events in our desert happen down-valley in the other cities, but Palm Springs’ name gets attached to them. The national media always focuses on Palm Springs though. It helps the local politicians further their careers. Remember US Congressman Sonny Bono? He started out as mayor here.

So here’s the truth. When people here talk about getting out of Palm Springs, they usually mean heading towards LA and driving on Interstate 10.

When I moved here in 1977, there was only one way to I-10 during rain storms (other than driving way south through the valley and getting to I-10 in Indio). This one way was to take Hwy 111 to 1-10.

In 1982 a bridge was built over the Whitewater Wash on Ramon Road. Ramon Road continues east to I-10. So since 1982 the only way to get to 1-10 during rainstorms is Hwy 111 or Ramon Road. Taking the Ramon Road route is around 20 miles longer than Hwy 111.

Today, there are only two roads out of PS during big rain storms.

This weekend I-10 flooded and was closed. That is a first as far as I can remember. That traffic was detoured to Varner Road (a two lane road), which allowed vehicles to get pass the closed area. This was a nightmare because four freeway lanes with lots of big rigs were forced onto a two lane road. Highway 111 remained open (except for a couple of hours according to my wife).

And if one wanted to go the other direction to leave Palm Springs this weekend, no problem. Ah, but the airport was closed due to cancelled flights.

whitewater wash runs the length of the Coachella valley and crosses many of the main roads. Built on sand, Portola would wash out every year. Fred Waring almost every year. Indian Ave. get covered with sand.
There has been water on I10 before. I don’t remember it ever being shut down.

Flooding in Morongo Valley was at Big Morongo Creek, which runs off of San Gorgonio. About 5” rain in Morongo.

Palm Springs itself is at the base of SanJacinto. It’s elevation being near sea level, there’s no place for the water to go. What doesn’t soak in, runs off into Whitewater. Whitewater crosses all the major roads. If it’s not the water, it’s the sand it carry’s that can block the roads.

Weather reports are accurate. The reporting gets sensationalized. They were showing flooding in Palm Springs that looked more like Yucca Valley. There’s a tract up there with very poor engineering. Palm Springs is mostly flat.

Sonny Bono was always Sonny Bono. He was a very long time resident. His epitaph as mayor was ruining spring break.

“Weather reports are accurate. The reporting gets sensationalized. ”

Yeah!  and you could substitute “weather reports” with a lot of other things.  It’s driving us all crazy.

My family moved to the Coachella valley in 1972. My parents lived in Palm Springs until 2015. I lived in the high desert closer to Joshua Tree. My brother still lives in the Town of Joshua Tree. The press comes from L.A. whenever there’s a fire or anything and they never know where they’re at.
The flooding of the streets, past the houses that I saw was due to poor engineering. I doubt if Palm Springs would have allowed it to have been built.

Hearing from folks around there, it was a good storm. I’m sorry I missed it. It might be here this weekend. What’s left or it.

Good summary of the “flood control” in the Coachella Valley, Terran. I live about a mile from the Whitewater River, near Gene Autry Trail. One of the main roads from Palm Springs to I-10. Another road that is guaranteed to be closed when it rains.

When I first moved to Palm Springs, I was surprised to see CalTrans snowplows parked in a yard. Then I figured out why. They are used to clear sand off the roads after a wind storm. Several times a year Indian Ave, Gene Autry, and Vista Chino (three roads we travel often) are closed because of blowing sand.

Typical clean-up of sand on Indian Ave . . .

A bridge is planned on Indian Avenue where it crosses Whitewater. To be completed by 2025. Signs and survey stakes were put up a few weeks ago. I’m certain those were washed away this weekend.

Parts of Tucson are like Palm Springs. Lots of road closures when it rains. I lived there for a short time many years ago.

This thread started out about possible impacts to the PCT and JMT. By this time of year most PCT thru-hikers should be in Oregon or Washington. The biggest worry in the Sierra this year has been the high and fast water in the streams and rivers from the record snowfall.

I ran into a bunch of thru hikers in Three Sisters a couple weeks ago

Many of them skipped the Sierras because there was too much snow