So here’s what I’ve learned from years of storing food. There are three basic ways for dry food to spoil if kept cool and dry:
1) Chemical changes to flavor (i.e. rancid fats). A taste issue, not a safety issue. Common with nuts. I’ve actually experienced this personally with Kind bars (from the nuts in them). Rancid fats give your food a “Play-doh” flavor. This is also how cured meats with nitrates will go off if left for too long as well, at least initially. I had a friend who peanut butter go rancid too (and didn’t notice until he was in the backcountry with no choice but to eat the PB).
2) Over-drying. I’ve experienced this quite a bit with dried fruit, and it makes them much less appealing. With dried vegetables they will become harder to rehydrate. I haven’t experienced this much with freeze-dried dinners, but they can also become harder to rehydrate over time. I use a cozy system for rehydrating (which retains more heat in my dinner than the normal freeze-dried bags). I think that may be why I haven’t experienced this, even though I buy mountain house by the #10 can and take as long as several months to use up a can.
3) Weevils, mealworms or other bugs. I think this is pretty darn unlikely with prepackaged foods.
If you add moisture or heat to the equation you’ve got other options:
4) Mold. Even without added moisture, I have friends who had jerky get moldy when left in a cache bucket in the sun (really the fault of the folks who left the cache bucket in a poor location).
5) Botulism. This requires moisture and an absence of oxygen, so not super applicable to backpacking food storage. But that said, there is a real (but still extremely low) risk in eating expired canned food. It’s much more likely for expired canned food to still be safe but have a reduction in quality over time.
6) Other bacterial insurgencies. Fermentation. etc. Again, this requires moisture (and sometimes oxygen). Not likely for backpacking food storage.
I think that covers everything, but I could be wrong. Also, there are two easy ways to improve the shelf life of backpacking food:
1) Store it in the freezer. I used to store my opened #10 cans in two gallon freezer bags in the freezer, which works quite well (although it’s best to let them warm up before opening to prevent condensation from forming. This will do a lot to help prevent fats from going rancid.
2) Get a vacuum sealer. I use a Foodsaver with the wide-mouth mason jar attachment to seal my opened packages now in mason jars (you can get 1/2 gallon mason jars at most ACE hardware stores, as well as quarts and other useful sizes). Much more convenient than taking up freezer space, and the jars and lids are 100% reusable. You can also get the foodsaver jar attachment and a ziplock hand-pump sealer and be able to seal jars for a $15 investment (although I don’t think the vacuum is as strong as that from a machine).