Anyone else getting their gear out to stay at home?

[Jerry Adams]

I see I’ve infected obx, I don’t need to post any more

(applause from the masses)

[obx hiker]

Thanks Jerry! You didn’t leave me hanging. I think you’re the best I don’t care what anyone else says.

Karen yes the stores are being wiped out of certain items.  this might partly explain it.

Free Marketeers

Interesting vignette of current society.

HOORAY FOR ME!!…………………………………………………………………………………………………

……f u ……

[AK Granola]

No shortages here, only panicked people believing in shortages. Still a full supply of donuts provided daily at every grocery store. It would be at least 2 months before I would bother with using any camping supplies to survive on at home, maybe more. The last think I want to eat at the dinner table is Mountain house. Deliveries continue, shopping continues – run amok- and I still do not understand why we are all freaking out about this disease. I do get the quarantine measures, make sense. And I’m sympathetic to those who suffer a heightened risk; it’s scary for them. But flu has killed 30,000 this year in the U.S. alone and people still won’t get their damn flu shots or wash their hands.  The suicide rate in the U.S. surpasses the death rate for coronavirus – or so it seems, without all the numbers really in yet  for coronavirus – and yet we don’t support more mental health services. There was trouble before this, and we’ve ignored it.

The only thing I can really attribute it all to is nonstop media coverage, especially social media. I encountered someone freaked out and hyperventilating on Thursday – a well educated person, who had spent 100% of her last few days seeking out the worst case scenarios on the internet and observing what death was like for victims. Jeeza pizza. Do something else with your time.

I’m headed out onto trails again today, got to get away. Plus I have a light cough…it can only get better outdoors! Spring is on the way.

[Kattt]

The soapboxing is over the top.
yes please go for a hike and feel better.

 

[Jerry Adams]

yeah, good thought

but, if the hospitals are overwhelmed and there aren’t ventilators, the death rate will be 5% based on China’s experience

if we just let this go unchecked, they say half the population will get infected, say 150 million people

5% of 150 million is 7.5 million deaths

as a comparison, there are maybe 2.5 million deaths per year for all causes

but, based on what happened in China and Italy, when the hospitals become overwhelmed, it becomes so horrific there that finally, extreme measures are taken to control

so, if we just take those extreme measures now, rather than a few weeks from now based on what happened in China and Italy, we can prevent those horrific conditions in hospitals

[Kattt]

If careless people end up being ok it’s because enough of us practiced social distancing. Simple as that. Same as people who don’t vaccinate their kids being able to get away with it as long as the majority of people vaccinate.

[David Thomas]

Katt:, true the irresponsible benefit from those who are being more careful, but the careful people will benefit the most.

Karen, yesterday in Kenai was the first time I got a serious prepper vibe from any other shoppers.  Two guys with nothing but 6 cases (= 144 cans) of chili (I was tempted to slip a bottle of Beano in there).  Couples with 100 pounds of meat in their cart.  The TP went from only one or two brands earlier this week to none.  No flour (I doubt that many people know how to make bread or muffins starting with flour).   The posts I see from friends Outside are that they hit those points several days earlier.

Unlike the 48 states, no activity at the gun counter.  What good is a 17th gun going to do you when you’re feverish and hacking up a lung?

[Jerry Adams]

I think a help each other we’re going to get through this attitude is more mentally healthful than I’m going to protect my stash with my 17 guns

It’s selfish – you will live longer, and you’ll be happier during your life

[Kattt]

What would make no sense, but I think is happening, is to stash up on all kids of provisions and keep hanging out in groups instead of taking some “space”.

[jscott]

Hanging out in the crowds at Safeway while hording is maybe not the wisest choice.

And forcing U.s. tourists to fly back early from Europe in jam packed planes and then hang out cheek to jowl waiting for luggage and being screened…for an additional six or eight hours..is also maybe not wise. Actually, all of that is among the riskiest behavior imaginable in terms of spreading Covid.

D’oh! another shoot from the hip policy not thought all the way through.

[BlackHatGuy]

There are lots and lots of people who just don’t believe this thing is that bad at all (helped, of course, by our ridiculously inept administration telling people it’s no big deal). Even non-administration fans are affected by the misinformation from some places to too much information from other places (damn CNN for bringing the 24-hour news cycle to the masses).

A person I know fairly well, who is diabetic, obese and a bus driver, who is not an administration fan at all, still doesn’t think it’s that big of a deal. He went to a local casino last night, said it was ‘packed’. I just shook my head.

I really wish we’d get on with widespread testing so we can figure out how bad it really is in the country, but we don’t really seem close to that at the moment.

[jscott]

regarding hording: has anyone heard of food shortages in Italy–I mean, beyond empty shelves due to hording? In other words, even at the worst place, is there likely to be no food available for weeks at a time?

somehow I doubt that starvation is going to become common here over the next two months.

One recalls the story of the loaves and fishes. someone made a single gesture of generosity and hey, presto, it turns out everyone had their personal stash and everyone was fed after all.

[d k]

I think perhaps you’re conflating the loaves and fishes with stone soup?

[Kattt]

People are buying large quantities of food so that they don’t have to go hang out in public for a few weeks if need be. We bought enough so that we can limit the people we are around until we know more what the extent of this is. I don’t think it’s about a fear of running out of food. Just less trips to stores and lots of people next to one another .

[Jerry Adams]

yeah, same here Kat

not huge quantities of food, just a little extra

[Diane “Piper” Soini]

I don’t think the supply chains are really at risk, except by all this hoarding.

The thing that’s bugging me is that I’m a programmer for the learning management system on a university campus and so everyone in our IT team is going crazy trying to prepare to handle finals next week and the coming quarter. Our systems can’t really handle it. I’m not a sys-admin, so pretty much all I can do is watch helplessly and try to provide information. I can’t actually do anything. On top of that, there’s a teaching assistant strike going on and a lot of us feel it’s an ethical issue to help some of these helpless professors who have never had to do any of the work using the LMS. There’s only so much we can do to help them if they don’t know how to do it, and at some point it becomes us sort of crossing the picket line.

Several students who live off-campus have come in contact with someone who tested positive. So I foresee Monday being a stressful day back at work. It’s weird to see how grown men can sort of crumble under low-grade panic. This latest news should ratchet it up a notch.

In two weeks there’s a software update for our LMS that I have to do. After that, if I can, I’m taking off and going to the mountains. No plan. Just going to go and start walking. This is all nuts. I understand taking it seriously, but the panic isn’t helping.

[Bruce Tolley]

@ Jerry

I think you are referring to the mortality rate inside the province of Wuhan. For the rest of China, the rate is much lower.

Total mortality rate so far is 2.6%. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic#Deaths

The mortality rate in South Korea is much lower, less than 1%, where they started testing 10s of thousands of people earlier.

But your general point holds. Since the USA waited and waited to start testing for lack of poor planning (not to mention anti science attitudes in Washington), and the subsequent poor response in Washington, and delayed social distancing, the risk of surge overwhelming ICU units and ventilators is real.

[Jerry Adams]

https://www.bmj.com/rapid-response/2011/10/29/coronavirus-may-be-killed-higher-body-temperature

interesting article, not advice, just something to ponder

bmj is a respected medical journal

“If the body temperature is below 36C, it grows very fast.”

“if the body temperature is above 36.5C, and better
still, above 37C, the virus is attenuated or killed. Body will develop a
milder immune response and recover.

Patients with high fever can kill the virus. That is why CDC advocates
some patients recovered without anti-viral therapy.”

37C = 98.6F

“If the hypothesis is correct, then control is straight forward :

1. Put on more clothes to make body really warm,

2. maintain room temperature at least above 23C,

3. do exercise for 30 minutes daily, make sure you really sweat.”

23C = 73.4 F

They ought to do this experiment

If I got covid-19, I might do that, and not take tylenol to reduce fever, probably wouldn’t hurt.  Unless fever was really high.

[Jerry Adams]

Yeah, exactly Bruce, I didn’t say that clearly, that’s what I meant to say

In Wuhan the hospitals were overwhelmed so the mortality rate was 5%

In S Korea that had plenty of hospital capacity, the mortality rate was about 0.9%

S Korea managed this very efficiently, another model for us to consider when we reform our agencies post epidemic

[Kattt]

I am actually somewhat impressed that people are behaving. No looting, no violence other than a couple (literally 2) shoppers, nothing really other than places temporarily closing and people stocking up. Considering the extent of this and how our lives have changed over a week I’d say the vast majority of people that are (rightly) concerned are handling it quite  well.

[Kattt]

@piper Who is crumbling exactly? Which men? I am not seeing anything like that in real life. Farmers are out here farming; construction is still going, most businesses are going.

[Kattt]

And FWIW my professors have been class acts through the worst quarter that this school has seen is over a decade. They worked their butts off to try and and deliver on their commitment to educate the students. I am incredibly impressed by the vast majority of the faculty here, both as a student and a staff member. Same with fellow staff going above and beyond to help these kids go home and figure out what next quarter will be like.

[Mark]

Jerry,

Why do you insist on continually posting absolute nonsense?

Ordinarily i would just scroll through, but when you continue to post about a subject you obviously know absolutely nothing about, then post a constant stream of nonsense about it, it’s difficult to ignore

You post quotes about links you haven’t opened, videos you haven’t watched and now you post links that are for a completely different strain of virus FROM 2003

Please, start to take some responsibility and THINK about what you are saying before pressing the “submit” button

 

Someone could read nonsense links about completely different strains, decide to do high level cardio workouts but then find this may have caused further complications as the virus has now been forced deeper into their lungs.

The words you type here will come up on various searches and not necessarily by people that know you, so please take some responsibility about what you post

If you can’t be bothered to check and read the sources of the links you post, or open the links you comment on please just don’t comment

 

Cheers

Mark

[Jerry Adams]

okay, some validity to that

The main point here is to use social distancing to avoid overwhelming hospitals.  I think I’be beat that to death several times over, sorry to be so repetitive but it seems like this is important enough to justify

But it’s interesting (to me) to wonder about related questions

its a different strain of coronavirus but they are related.  That just out study showed that the SARS coronavirus and covid19 coronavirus had similar survival times on surfaces – 2 days on soft surfaces, 3 days on hard surfaces.

If body temperature affected survivability that would be really useful information, hopefully they’re looking into it

I wouldn’t recommend gargling with garlic : )

[Diane “Piper” Soini]

Men at my job, that’s who has been crumbling. They’re holding it together well enough, but you can sense the panic under the surface. I think it’s getting better now that they finally started making decisions.

[Author]

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