Here's an experiment I did last weekend tetsing down vs synthetic bags.
Conditions: It snowed about 3 inches, of which 1-2 melted. We were by a steaming lake (probably 50F compared with the ambient temperatures of 35F in the day and 26F at night). Thus very humid and fairly cold but not deep cold that sucks the moisture out of the air.
Gear: For the weekend I used a dual quilt system: a custom 13oz Nunatak bag with 2-2.5" of loft under a Cocoon 180 with 1.5" loft. I used a bivy sack and camped in a Black Diamond Mega-light.
Procedure:
7:30pm–go to lake, remove pants, pile hat, pile sweater, pile gloves and submerge till soaked in lake. Wring out until no more water dripped from clothing but not as dry as it could have been with further wringing. Put clothing on over wool base layer and medium weight capilene. Remain at fire an hour while "dripping" a bit. Still quite wet at the end.
8:30pm–Removing clothing except light base layer, put vapor barried clothing on over the base layer, put all wet clothing back on. Socks now soaked from water dripping from pants. Go to bed. [Vapor barrier clothing used to help separate clothing from body moisture issues and to further test VB clothing in warmer conditions.]
In the morning clothing had mostly dried. They were still moist but comfortable–I changed out of the vapor barrier and back to the (previously) wet clothing. The night was comfortable but the bag was very moist.
At home I weighed the bags and measured their loft before and after drying.
RESULTS:
Nunatak down Cocoon 180
Pre-Drying
Weight 14.4oz 19.7 oz
Loft * 1.25" 1.125"
Post-Drying
Weight 13oz 17oz
Loft * 2.25" 1.5"
Loft Lost% 45% 25%
Weight Gained%10% 16%
*It is very difficult to accurately measure loft–I fluffed both bags, placed them on a wood floor, held a yardstick on the surface so most of it touched the bag (two measurements side to side, one top to bottom with the three results averaged) From here I pushed a ruler down vertically until it hit the floor (compressing the material) and read the measurement against bottom of the yardstick.
I wasn't surprised that the down lost so much loft. I was surprised that it lost so much loft despite having gained less water weight. The synthetic bag gained 50% more water weight, but lost only half loft of the down bag. Interestingly, even after a very wet night the down bag still weighed less and provided more loft than the synthetic. However with another night out in similar conditions the trend wasn't promising.
Based on this test as well as the difficulties keeping two quilts aligned and closed as I turned from side to side as I slept, I would bring a synthetic bag in conditions such as we faced on this trip. (moist/cold when clothing is likely to get wet).
I've had good results using vapor barrier clothing and down in the winter (below 30F) when clothing doesn't generally get wet. I'd like to experiment with using VB clothing in moist above freezing conditions when I'm sure I can keep my clothing dry.