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It's pushing it. It depends on how cold you sleep.
You might want to bring a hot water bottle into the bag if it gets into the teens.

But wearing all that clothing will definitely get you close to the goal.
You are a little weak in the pad warmth. I'd use a heat-reflective space blanket under the pad, just for a little extra help.
Put the ccf on top of the neo-air.

I'm a pretty warm sleeper. I think this could work depending on your shelter choice.

For sure into 20's….teens might be iffy.

I think trying to get a full 15 degrees below your bag rating is really pushing it even with that clothing setup. I say that in part because I have a Marmot 15 degree bag that hasn't lived up to that rating. In addition, the Thermawrap doesn't have that much insulation to begin with (50g of synthetic).

Before you go out and over buy though I would test in your backyard. Although I am not sure where you live (just says Southeast) so you may not have cold enough temps in your area of the country to do that.

It wouldn't work for me. I started getting cold in the Marmot Hydrogen and on the NeoAir (at separate times) when the temps got down to 40*F. By the time it got to 30* I had all my insulating clothing on and was still getting cold. At 18*F with a 20*F sleeping bag (WM Ultralight) and a 1/8" CCF pad on top of a NeoAir, wearing all my insulating clothing and a vapor barrier suit, I was nice and warm on top, but at the same time I was shivering underneath.

I basically had the same clothing you had except for fleece pants instead of Thermawrap. I also wore a balaclava and gloves, two pair of dry wool socks and wore my non-breathable rain gear as a vapor barrier between my midweight base layer and my outer insulation.

At a minimum, I'd get a much thicker CCF pad (maybe 3/8") or a NeoAir All Season or some other R5 pad if you're going below the mid-20's. The EN13537 tests for 20*F bags, I've read, assume a sleeping pad with an R-value of 5. You may need a warmer sleeping bag, too, but for starters definitely beef up the pad.

Admittedly, as a woman I get cold about 9 to 10 degrees F sooner than a warm-sleeping man, according to EN13537 ratings and my own experience.

It's going to depend a lot on you and whether you sleep cold or hot. With your setup (which is similar to my summer set up) I would be very cold at a night in the teens even with a hot water bottle. But I'm a cold sleeper.

I'd guesstimate 20F.

I agree with Mary-I would be cold with that pad setup. There's not much that can make up for inadequate ground insulation.

if you want to hit lower temperatures, get a warmer bag/pad … that setup will be pushing to get to 20F IMO for a normal person … if yr worried buy from REI where you can exchange it for a better model easily

I've used an older Exped downmat short in cold conditions and find that it really helps with overall warmth. I'm lusting after the newer lighter Exped downmat and will probably spring for it next, well, spring. That will be my all year mat.

For the teens, not just 21* for the half hour before sunrise, my opinion is:

Increase the insulation under you. Put a couple of 3/8" foam pads under you, or buy the down mat from the poster above who wants to buy a different one then put a thicker foam pad on it. Leave that 1/8" pad with your summer hiking shorts.

Increase the insulation over you and on your head. Either get a much thicker bag or get a quilt to use over your EN rated 40* bag, hyped as a 30* bag by Marmot.

In my former Hydrogen, I got cold testing it on my patio with no tent and a little breeze. I don't remember the above freezing temperature, but I do remember the unexpected chill, thinking that the bag would be fine from having looked at the numbers on the weather forecast.

Weigh each of your clothing items. The thick wool and the synthetic clothing are heavy and do not compress well. Foam pads carried outside your pack and more bag will be lighter and less bulky than carrying so many pieces of sleep clothes in a much larger backpack.

As already stated, depends on how hot you sleep.
Find a cold spot and give it a try (close to car).
We have the Hydrogen for rescue. An outer wind shell will help a lot.