To me base weight has no meaning unless you specify the number of nights. If you check the weather report and head out for an overnighter, that's totally different than heading out for a week in winter or rainy season during unpredictable weather, ie, having to carry all the gear you need to make it. Or having to carry two or more quarts of water, for example.
To me 5 nights would be a reasonable time frame, that way you can't trust the weather report, you have to actually be prepared for whatever comes, so you can't cheat by leaving stuff behind or skipping stuff because you'll be all snug driving home in your suv, stopping at the nearest burger spot to stock back up on whatever you missed on your trip. 5 nights also means the ability to cook/prepare and carry 5 days of food, which means a pack that holds that weight and volume. This is my target for my current myog pack project.
That's what I'm shooting for, whatever the weight I will carry for 5 or more nights as base weight is my actual base weight, one or two nights I can dump a lot of that weight simply because I know what the weather is going to be. I can do 8 pounds I think easily for 2 nights, but that's because I leave a lot at home.
From what I can see, 12 pounds for average sized person is the actual cutoff, after that you have to move to ul techniques to get under that. I've noticed this in most of my configurations, 12 pounds seems to be the switch point, to get under that, I have to use a trekking pole supported tent, a tarp, or whatever. But even 12 pounds requires almost all gear that normal backpackers consider, rightfully so, to be ultralight, like silnylon tent, super light bag/ lightest pad you can get away with, light pack, very light clothing, like a nanopuff.
It's fun geeking on this stuff, I enjoy it, but I know that if the weather report, or bailing out on a trip, back to car/suv at trailhead, because of gear failure, or weather, is a key component of the weight, then that's not real, it's just pretend. But valuable ideas all around, always good to reconsider what's needed for your particular style of hanging out outdoors..