@Michael: Thanks for the reference to Andy Kirkpatrick's article. Very interesting read – and he unfortunately came to the same conclusion I did: There are hardly any proper technical synthetic bags available on the market! And that is the biggest problem I am facing now….
@Nigel: Thanks for your elaborations on the dew point. I find them very interesting and agree with you, but: Your theory on dew point is only one of many factors that can make a down bag damp. Over the years I have noticed a variety of things that can make the down clump together: It can be anything from touching the wet tent wall, leaking drybags and most important your sweating at night. If you hike in damp conditions no matter what you do down will clump. If you use liners or the double system you will delay the process a bit, but it will still occur.
The problem with the double bag system is that your down layer is very thin to start with and therefore even more prone to cold spots due to clumping. Interestingly enough in another recent thread about synthetic sleep systems it was agreed that synthetic works especially well for warmer conditions because summer down sleeping bags have less down that is more easily rendered useless.
For me the trouble with those reports (including Andy Kirkpatricks) is that the double system is only used for a relatively short period of days or maybe a couple of weeks. I do believe that the double system works for those short periods, but not for much longer. I personally do not trust a summer sleeping maintaining its insulation qualities over weeks in cold and damp climates – even with a synthetic outer bag. I would be happy if anyone could come up with practical long-term experience with a double down/synthetic system.
Regarding your question: I expect above freezing temps and rain during the day and below freezing only at night. And all my insulating clothes are synthetic.