A good pad keeps you warmer… trying to go ultralight with it is not the greatest idea. I think a 3/4's or torso length z lite would work best. I think the folding pads make the best, sturdiest frames. You pack them differently than a regular, circular pad but they give you more support.
I say don't go for the air pad. It's comfy, but you can live without until you try it out… then you can't live without it!
Ha, ha…yeah, been there!
The NeoAir, et al, are fairly warm and comfotable down to about 32F(0C). That said, I will be switching back to a Nightlte after several leaks. A good CCF pad never fails. Nightlites are warmer than a simple Rvalue will tell you. IFF you use them with the bumps up, they allow some lofting of your bag under you. In warmer weather, you use them with the bumps down, allowing more compression of the down under you. This will let you adjust to conditions slightly (maybe 2-5 degrees) for no additional weight. The thin ones are quite light at about 6oz. By carefully nesting the bumps and cutting the pad, taping it back together, 5 layers can be put together in about 2.5" for a 50"x20" pad. Anyway, the entire sleep system becomes important, not only the pad, due to the extra lofting. I believe that you would actually get closer to an R3 out of the Nightlite pads than the advertised R2.3 when all is considered in a sleeping system.
This also means using the pad as a frame in your pack. The GG packs have a pad pocket built into them. They DO fit the additional bulk of a folded Nightlite. These together make a real nice frame for your pack. I have carried up to 25lbs easily. I am sure than 30lb is possible, likely more, but that much food doesn't fit in my old pack. For other packs, a pad pocket will have to be added. Zpacks offers these, but I am not sure of the fit.
The folded pads work well as a sit pad and windscreen, with a few sticks/rocks. The nightlights can support up to 3-5lbs on them. Two sections down and three up make a decent chair, leaned up against a tree or rock.
The imbalance caused by moving the pack out a couple inches is not that bad, considering that many framed packs do close to the same distance. Anyway, coupled with a good bag, it works. I have been out for two-three weeks at a time with this setup. When I got the NeoAir, I simply added it. I needed the pack frame. When my last one starts leaking, I will give it to someone willing to repair it. Last year I didn't use it, 'cept in lean-to's.
Bulk can be changed to an advantage.