As I said, tricky Qs.
I have not found that the silnylon I have been using for my tents for many years has lost all that much HH in the fly. Different coatings, different behaviours. (This we DO know.)
I did find once in France that the groundsheet of my blue tent did leak very slightly when I knelt on it in flowing water, but the tent was many years old by then, and groundsheets get a rough life! At the next town I coated the groundsheet with a very thin layer of something like Permatex flowable window sealant and that has solved the problem for the next 5+ years. It managed to bond with the existing silicone polymer on the fabric. I can’t remember what the name of the stuff was – it was Italian and we bought it at the nearest hardware store.
Yes, the EPA did object to the emissions from the early coating process, but the result was simply that the coating process moved to Asia. I think the sil/PU process came some years later, AFTER that and not as a result. In addition, do not mix up older conventional PU coatings with TPU coatings: they are very different. The older PU coatings would absorb water (hydrolyse) and start to degrade: they went sticky. This was an irreversible degradation. TPU, or thermoplastic PU, is quite different and does not hydrolyse.
Now, something you may not know: the silicone coating on a fabric is porous. It will let water through under pressure. This is not a ‘failure’ of the coating: it is inherent in the silicone polymer. The modern TPU coating is not porous in comparison. I have pressure-tested a si/TPU coated fabric and found really different results, depending on which face was to the water. When the Si face was the wet one, I could SEE the water slowly getting into the fibres through the Si coating. This did not happen with the TPU side to the water.
I don’t think this happened with the original Si coatings either. They had enough solvent in them that the threads were fully wet out by the silicone. But PU and TPU coatings seem to sit ON the surface and not go into the fibres.
Would I trust the fly with an HH of 600 mm? I don’t think I would TRUST it, but I might use it sometimes. The requirements for a tent fly are very different from the requirements for rain gear: rain gear can experience much higher pressures because it is up against something hard. Most likely I would either spray it with several coatings of silicone spray, allowing 24 hr drying between each coating, or maybe treat it with a very dilute solution of silicone sealant.
I would use silicone adhesive/sealant from a squeeze tube for this, NOT the caulking compound you get in large cartridges. The latter is NOT suited ime.
HTH
Cheers