Hiker Missing In Cascades Found Alive

when there's a climbing accident, it's usually dissected … either on the climbing forums, or in publications … in fact some magazines have an accident and prevention feature every month

sadly this is lacking in "safe" sports like hiking … note how there are forums on BPL devoted to events that happened years ago, but no safety/prevention/incident forum … maybe because it adds to the base weight?

as to what could have been done different?

let's start with what was done right
– red poncho
– knew enough to stay out
– survived

what was likely luck
– daughter was worried
– boy scouts spotted her and were able to relay that
– very good and dedicated SAR

what was done questionable
– did not turn around with little light left
– got lost once and continued … map or compass?
– emergency bivy gear could have been better … in the cascades at 6000+ ft on the cusp of winter

what could have improved the chances?
– bivy gear, bombproof firestarting method, insulation if she didnt have any
– detailed itenerary … what if the scouts hadnt spotted her, or the daughter wasnt on the ball

in climbing everyone gets all riled up by armchair quarterbacking … but everyone agrees that it needs to be done anyways

because the alternative is that we go out and find out the hard way from scratch … and get hurt or dead

how many saved ounces is yr life worth on a day hike?

"There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don't know we don't know." -D. Rumsfeld

As I've said in the past, I just don't agree that examining the incomplete news reports of near-fatal or fatal hiking and backpacking trips is very useful. Most of these "incident reviews" seem to be developed using incomplete and inadequate information. In the end, the conclusions that are drawn from these types of threads seem to be (a) either things that are already widely known (leave a trip plan with a trusted person, carry the 10 essentials, make sure you can reach your destination and return before dark, check the weather reports before you head out, etc) or (b) affirmations of the preconceived ideas of the people doing the review (e.g. how many ounces is your life worth?).

The truth is that if this type of exercise work, wouldn't we all be pouring over the reports of automotive accidents? Why don't we review these incident reports?

I think that a much more useful exercise is to review your own non-fatal trips to see where and how (a) your own errors in judgement or (b) outside forces could have caused you a problem. And then figuring out ways prevent those problems in the future. Just because you got back from your hike doesn't mean that you did everything right. Next time you take a hike, review what you did afterwards. By doing this type of review, you'll have much more detailed information and the conclusions will be more applicable to you. Even doing this exercise, we still need to realize that there are possible "unknown unknowns" that will will not be able to account for in our self-review.

Overall, I think it's a mistake to only examine major incidents when (a) we don't have enough facts, (b) there are thousands of "successful" trips that are really "near misses" where the exact same mistakes are made as fatal trips, just with different results, (c) we can only draw conclusions that are either already well established, and (d) there's a very real possibility of drawing incorrect conclusions due to the lack of good information.

I was hiking up granite mountain a couple weeks ago and people were heading up at like 2-3pm and it seemed that all of the'fitter' people who looked like they knew what they were doing were all down by about 3 and people with like flip flops and small packs if any were heading up when we were coming down. One guy we passed had like 7 miles to go and had a blister and know way to fix it. One of the guys i was with had some moleskin and helped him out but still.

A couple years ago also i was hiking in Australia in about 105 degrees and people were hiking with either no water bottles or one little one. Pretty much suicide.

My daughter was one of the (quite a number of) SAR people out looking for her. She (my daughter) pointed out afterwards that the weather changed quite a bit and pretty quickly from when this woman started out to when SAR and related folks were out looking for her.

The navigation was the issue here IMO, i.e., getting disoriented/lost/whatever. A map and compass (and knowledge, experience to use them) aren't very heavy even for a day hiker.

OTOH I too think that this woman did a great job at surviving with what she had once she did get into that situation.

Changeable weather is a #1 factor for me in preparedness. One key to the weather in the Pacific Northwest is jet stream shifts, pulling warm moist air off the ocean and mixing it with cold air from the north: ***snow***.

I agree with Brian that navigation was a core cause of this hiker's problems, but the triple whammy of navigation/clothing/weather made this a possible obituary listing.

As to arm chair quarterbacking, yeah, sure, we don't know the exact details, but there's nothing wrong an open discussion of the known factors, or even hypothetical ones.

The point is to keep people alive and healthy while getting some fresh air and enjoying the outdoors. If people don't get out and see our natural resources, we WILL lose them. Keeping them alive and happy is good PR!

there's quite a bit of defensiveness by hikers i find when you point out they are doing something wrong … no idea why

climbers there still is somewhat if they are old foggies … but not for alot

if someone points out something im screwing up on … i thank them and buy them a beer …

cause they probably just saved my life or my climbing partner's life …

maybe its because when yr a few hundred metres of the ground hanging by a thing rope … you realize any screw up can kill you and yr buddy

weather, or bad weather is something you need to plan for in the mountains … as anyone who has been caught in a storm at altitude can attest to … even on a clear blue day

"there's quite a bit of defensiveness by hikers i find when you point out they are doing something wrong … no idea why"

Now this is a topic worth exploring in more detail. Rather than looking at the incomplete facts from one unique case, I think it's much more helpful to begin thinking about why hikers make mistakes. In order to understand this issue, I think we need to look at the science surrounding human error.

A useful read is Why We Make Mistakes by Joseph Hallinan. In this book we see that one of the best way to reduce errors in to introduce "constraints." Constraints are "simple mental aids that keep us on the right track by limiting our alternatives" (Hallinan, 2009, p.183).

I think the "problem with hikers" is that there are almost no constraints, because hiking is pretty much just going for a walk is an unfamiliar, unusually less populated wilderness area. In fact, I wonder if most of these people even consider themselves hikers. Many of them may just see themselves as people going for a walk in the woods. Climbers know that they're engaging in a specific, unique activity, while many hikers feel like they're just going for an evening stroll.

From time-to-time, I've asked unprepared hikers why they're in jeans or why they don't have water. Each time they've replied that they're just going for a little sunset walk or something to the affect. They didn't see hiking as a big deal and the truth is that I'm guessing 99.9% of them didn't have any problems that day. And that's part of the problem with only looking at the big disasters. There are little, near misses all the time, but people don't evaluate what they did wrong, because they had a beautiful sunset hike and what happened to Ms. XYZ would never happen to them.

Climbers will keep their buddies in check because they don't want to get killed by a stupid climbing partner.

I've been involved in industrial safety, first aid, disaster planning and crisis intervention. There are all kinds of reasons people get themselves in bad situations: denial, ignorance, ego (goes back to denial), bad information, bad luck, intoxication, lack of preparation, and plain old stupidity. Read any "Darwin Award" list. Read any report of industrial accidents, or traffic accidents for that matter. There aren't any "smart" accidents. You will say, "what WERE they thinking?"

It's plain and simple: get smart or die young. Pay attention, think ahead, know your limits. Be prepared.

What gets hikers in trouble? I see it every summer:

No one else knows where they are or when they are due home. Maybe their family likes that.

Didn't check the weather report. Couldn't look to the sky and interpret that the weather was changing. What ARE those gray things in the sky? Is it me, or is it cold out here?

No map or compass– didn't know where they were going or when they were lost, etc. Have difficulty with concepts like "up" and "down." A GPS wouldn't help because they couldn't interpret the information. Couldn't find their backside with both hands and a map anyway.

Add no sense of time and space– how long it takes to walk three miles uphill with mud and rocks, or how much ground they have covered.

No extra clothing. What they do have is cotton.

No rain gear. Does it rain here? Never been cold and wet for more than 15 minutes.

No shelter or skills/tools to make it. Never mind…. takes geometry.

No fire making tools/skills. Takes physics and chemistry… never mind.

No water/container/purification method. What, no Starbucks at the lake? Giardia who?

No food or skills to get it. EAT WHAT? I'll have fries with that….

No first aid skills or kit. Dude, you are like BLEEDING! EWW!

No lighting gear. Never been out in real darkness. Can't see your hand in front of your face.

No signaling gear– they can't hear you in the helicopter… YOO HOO, I'm down here under the trees!

No personal preparation: panic, despair, bad decisions, poor physical conditioning, anatomical challenges (head in the wrong place).

"sadly this is lacking in "safe" sports like hiking … note how there are forums on BPL devoted to events that happened years ago, but no safety/prevention/incident forum ."

Eric,

I think you just came up with an excellent idea. Anybody know how to relay a suggestion to the BPL powers that be that a safety/accident analysis forum be established?

"As I've said in the past, I just don't agree that examining the incomplete news reports of near-fatal or fatal hiking and backpacking trips is very useful. Most of these "incident reviews" seem to be developed using incomplete and inadequate information. In the end, the conclusions that are drawn from these types of threads seem to be (a) either things that are already widely known (leave a trip plan with a trusted person, carry the 10 essentials, make sure you can reach your destination and return before dark, check the weather reports before you head out, etc) or (b) affirmations of the preconceived ideas of the people doing the review (e.g. how many ounces is your life worth?)."

I've got to disagree with you here, Thomas. The basic principles you say are widely known are violated often enough to make it obvious that a significant number of people are unaware of them, or choose willfully to ignore them. In either case, I think it is useful to reemphasize them, especially in the context of a violation that has resulted in a life threatening, of fatal, situation. This is what I call a "teachable moment", and it doesn't require ALL the facts, if what is known already contains potentially lifesaving information that can hopefully educate others while you have their attention. In this case what is already known offers ample material for discussion. It might even get through to some of those woefully unprepared people who get away with it time after time, that several posters mention having seen on day hikes up here in the PNW, where the weather can be unforgiving indeed, especially at this time of year.

"The truth is that if this type of exercise work, wouldn't we all be pouring over the reports of automotive accidents?

You have no way of knowing whether this type of exercise works or not. If even one person is motivated to examine their hiking preparation and address shortcomings, it will have been worth the effort. Organizations like the Mountaineers value the exercise highly enough to include it in all their mountain oriented courses in the initial sessions, and reemphasize it continually on outings. It is also included in Freedom of the Hills, which is read by countless thousands of others. If we have opportunities to reinforce the basics of hiking safely by discussing what went wrong when incidents like this are reported, I would view that as a service to the community.

Women from Ukraine are tough! (speaking from personal experience ;)

Just wanted to add to this story, for whatever educational purposes it's worth.

On the same Saturday, my husband and his friend started out on an overnight to the Enchantments (close to Ignalls, similar terrain). A night before, Nick and I looked over the map and the routes. There were two approaches to the Enchantment basin, one through Snowlakes , a longer 10 mile hike-in, or a shorter one through Colchuk lake and a steeper Aasgard pass. Nick and Chris were going to meet their two other friends who started late Friday by one of the lakes they agreed upon. So it was decided that Nick would go through Aasgard because it's shorter. He printed maps, and left me copies with route descriptions. I didn't go with them since i'm on my 8th month… but man i wished i were there!

At 11:49 pm Saturday, and I get a text message from Chris that reads something like "We made it to lake Viviane at 6,500. it's snowing hard, we may not be back by Sunday night".

Wow. that was a little scary to receive, especially when you are pregnant. I immediately pulled out the forecasts and they called for more snow, snow storms Sunday afternoon and generally a winter storm weather alert throughout Cascades. The "best news" was that the storm would not subside till Wednesday am, with an overall 4-5 feet of snow coming in. I texted them all the forecasts and ended with "proceed to lower elevations Sun AM ASAP".

Needless to say , i wasn't sleeping well that night. Not because i was particularly worried about a life threatening situation since these guys are tough and had all the gear they needed to survive for days.. but mainly because of the pregnancy hormones.

At 5:45 am (still dark, raining hard and wind is raging outside my apartment at Lake Sammamish) I get a message from Chris: "still snowing 20 inches on the ground will try to get down towards Snowlakes with first light". i tried calling but apparently he was preserving his battery or something – so no response. They also never met up with their friends they were supposed to meet with.

Of course at this point i'm thinking they may need help and/or at least need a ride since they started from the other trailhead. Being a member of the same SAR that was looking for the lady at Ignalls, i know for sure that noone will go to look for them in those kind of conditions all the way to the lake basin. I started calling our climbing buddies that are crazy enough to go look for them in case we need help. So by about 11 am i had some people with me driving towards the trailhead. Shortly after, i get the happy news: they are half way down, and they don't need a ride. What a relief!

So what happened… is that they actually changed plans, bailed on the Aasgard pass route, and started from the snowlake trailhead instead on Sat afternoon. they somehow climbed up to the basin very fast, but they lost trail and ended up at A lake (which actually turned out to be not lake vivianne but some other lake). The trails over there…well there are no trails, just granite paths that scramble over some crazy steep cliffs with bunch of cairns to show the route. The snow started falling, it was getting dark, they gave up on trying to go further to find their friends, and they set camp expecting 4 inches of snow over night or so. Well, it snowed like 20 overnight, and winds blew at 35 mph so they had to keep their Hubba-Hubba …maintained…

In the am, they started down, breaking trail through the snow. it was slow since they had to look for the snow covered cairns all the time, but they somehow made it. there were other people over there, who caught up with them. Some younger kids wearing jeans! They were running down the mountain like crazy (and thanked Nick and Chris for breaking the trail). Nich said it was..very interesting going down (i'm looking at his liner gloves with huge holes on them.) He said they were just sliding, scrambling, crawling and falling down on the snow like 20 times. And when they asked some girls camping out there where the trail was, and the girls pointed to it, he said "we couldn't believe it at first because of how steep the hill was"(and wondering why those girls were still sitting in camp looking bewildered).

In any case , all is well which ends well. In that lady's case, she just didn't have the equipment for overnight and went by herself. I think those were her two worst mistakes, but i'm sure she learned from them.

In our case..well changing the trail head and not letting me know was one. another one, perhaps, if they looked at the forecast more closely, they would have abandoned the hike..but i think they went ahead and ignored the signs since their friends were already out hiking (and had a similar adventure). Also, it would be nice to have a SPOT. No, we must get a SPOT!

As far as SAR, they did a great job, but the lady was found by a heli crew as far as i remember. Do not rely on SAR to come and get you in very bad conditions. They would not risk their lives to do anything that's too dangerous. Be self-reliant!

Hey your pregnant? I remmeber when you were asking questions ;-)

When are you due? My baby is 7 months old now :-)

tom,

id love to have such a forum… i think BPL could safely merge all those outdoor retailer forums form years past into a single thread to "free" up the visual space

i think it would help to keep it separate from the general discussions. Not only for newbies and the paranoid among us to read. But also for people to post the "how i screwed up" situations.

im sure all of us have done such at some time …

lets spam the staff with our demands … lol

"im sure all of us have done such at some time …"

Without a doubt. I know I have, probably sometimes without even knowing it. ;-}

Well, I'm off to bug BPL staff.

Sisyphus.

"Sisyphus."

Probably. :-(

But hope springs eternal in this old bird's breast. :-)

"But hope springs eternal in this old bird's breast."

Both your best, highest version of yourself, and your eternal downfall.

(As we know, nothing will change for the better in the forum organization. Not even something like putting the Pre-trip forum BEFORE the After-trip forum. It's just not gonna happen. However, at least I'm always easily able to access the 2005 Outdoor Winter Retailer forum from the main page, in case I wonder what six years ago was like.)

"Both your best, highest version of yourself, and your eternal downfall."

A veritable template for my life, that. Makes me wish I really was an ouzel sometimes.

Here is a 20 minute interview with the hiker:

http://www.kirotv.com/video/25543589/index.html

She did not have a map or compass. She relied on reading the trail and directions given to her by another hiker. Her English is limited.

She wore jeans, a tee shirt, light rain jacket and had plastic non-breathable rain pants and a plastic parka.

She did have some food, but didn't eat it.

She said that she got to the trailhead late due to car problems and traffic, but was determined to make it to the lake.

At one point, she found another hiker's prints in the snow and followed them, taking her farther away from the trail she started on. She said that once she got into the woods, she was walking in circles.

I'm grateful she survived, but I'll chalk it up to luck or divine intervention. I would put this in the "typical lost hiker file"— late start, no essentials, wrong clothing, didn't know the trail, bad weather, etc. No guessing the details here— it's all in the interview.

she was lucky

– blizzard emergency bivy … 11 oz
– PJ cotton balls, pocket matches and a mini bic … 2 oz
– map, mirror, whistle, button compass … 4 oz
– warm down or syn layer … 6 oz (ex light)
– emergency headlamp or light 1 oz
– small knife 1 oz
– bright garbage bag 1 oz

so for a 1.6 lbs … you should be able to survive a night in up to freezing temps with no fire (the blizzard bag is rate to ~38F)

with fire you could survive longer or colder

with your normal stuff such as rain jacket, normal clothes, an extra bar or two, water bottle (this is where one of the metal bottles are useful on a dayhike), etc … you can survive even worse stuff

Eric has his list, and many of us oldtimers have a "storm kit." I made some kits many years ago.

Mine all start with an empty metal can, typically about the size of a coffee can or a soup can. With a snap-on plastic lid, that is the container for the kit, and that is your water kettle. Inside, I stick one space blanket, at least one candle, at least one butane lighter, at least one book of paper matches, and then other items. Sometimes I add fire starters, and sometimes a tiny emergency poncho. There is always some Dextrose Candy. The list can go on and on, just depending on what you want to carry. If you go crazy with the list, your storm kit will be too heavy or too bulky, and then you won't carry it when you really need it.

Also, the mere fact that you are carrying a storm kit will cause you to stop and think carefully at the trailhead.

Each winter when cross country ski season starts, I ski out from the highway a couple of miles, and then I practice my skills in the middle of the snow. All I allow myself is one butane lighter and one titanium Sierra cup. I have to build a fire and melt snow to make hot water to drink. As long as I can make hot water, I am unlikely to freeze to death overnight. So far, it has worked.

–B.G.–

Sounds like she had a deathwish. Poor judgment wow.

> I have to build a fire and melt snow to make hot water to drink. As long as I
> can make hot water, I am unlikely to freeze to death overnight. So far, it has worked.

Ah, but do you add coffee?
:-)

Cheers

"Ah, but do you add coffee?"

No, but a proper mountaineer can't be caught without some tea.

–B.G.–

But agree with the notion that most of the time, our mistakes carry little or no penalty. But when a mistake, or more often than not, a series of mistakes results in life-threatening experience, an analysis of the event is useful but only if you can garner enough of the facts. And seldom do we have the complete picture.

As to this trail system where the hiker was lost, I think many people would be surprised by just how much snow falls in this area, since it's often associated with the "drier" side of the Cascades. It also provides some of the finest fall hiking around because of the changing color.

Having spent a chilly evening on Mt. Rainier several years ago lost and frankly, embarrassed and scared, I can attest to the powerful lesson learned in such an incident. My cavalier attitude and lack of preparation could have sorely cost me had weather rolled in. I learned from that experience and am a hell of a lot more prepared now. I am more understanding of how people get themselves in such circumstances. Nobody goes out trying to get themselves lost and/or killed – and even the smartest hikers can get turned around sometimes, especially in areas that they are already familiar with.

Dirk