Well last night I tried mine again and it worked way better. The weather forecast was for lows anywhere from 13 to 16 for the night. About midnight I checked my cheap thermameter and it read roughly 15 degrees.
I slept on two sleeping pads in a bivy with not tent. Since I normally camp under a tarp I figured this would be the most accurate test of what works for me. I didn't have access to my down vest or jacket to I had to improvise wearing sweaters and my REI jacket. I wore basically the same clothes as in my last test. I would guess what I wore was roughly equivolent in warmth to what I would normally wear just not as light.
This time I felt like the quilt was almost perfct. I stayed warm enough the entire night except once or twice when I rolled over and felt a bit of cold air seeping in. I did have the sense I was right on the edge, any colder and I probably would have been too cold, so I'm thinking this is a 15 degree quilt with supplemental insulation but not 10 degrees unless you want to be chilly or bring warmer clothes than I did.
Other Thoughts
I should have paid more attention to the sizing. I ordered the regular and its just barely big enough for me. If anyone has a long they want to trade let me know.
Overall I'm pretty happy with this quilt. It would be what I take on cold trips, wet trips and solo trips where I want and extra margin of safety in case I get wet.