Extreme weather

I like your post as it brings up several points which I have thought about over the years. One is the UL mantra—Having the right tool for the job. This mantra might be right on a short weekend trip after carefully checking the forecast, but on a 21 day trip with no bail-out points it becomes wrong. Why?

I wrote a long screed about this here—just scroll down until you find it—
http://www.trailjournals.com/entry.cfm?id=441814

Basically, the right tool changes because the job changes, as you say. I go out in March with a 21 day food load and it's 60F with calm sunny skies on Day 1. By Day 5 I'm atop a 5,500 foot NC mountain bald and it's 0F with 60mph winds at midnight, although I set up the day before in calm conditions with no wind. I need every pegged guyline I can get, and maybe even put rocks on top of my stakes.

Then by Day 8 a blizzard hits with 2 feet of snow on the ridge. Didn't need a snow shovel at the beginning? I do now. Didn't need my FF Icefall down parka on Day 1? I do now.

Then by Day 12 I bail off the mountain to 2,000 feet and there's no snow and it's 50F. No wind. Do I now need my bomber 4 season tent? Nope. Did I need it earlier and may need it again? Oh hell yes.

Ultralighters will counter, "You need to practice 'proper site selection' which on the one hand means conditions don't change and if they do you can always bail off the mountain to "safer spots". Plus, practicing proper site selection turns a healthy adventure into a whimpering fear-based trek—"Oops, can't camp here, I may get hit with wind. Oops, can't go there, wind blown rain will blow under my tarp. Oops, can go there, ground water may swamp my camp etc etc". Kiss my freedom goodbye just because I want to carry insubstantial gear?

And then there's the Just Right folks—they won't go out unless it's just right—no rain, no snow, sunny, warmish etc. The Just Right folks thrive on pre-planned weather forecasts and short weekend trips and carry the lightest gear which will work in just right conditions. The just right mindset collapses on a 21 day trip, as you say in your post.

I'm gearing up right now for a trip to the Boundary Waters in Northern MN, and even on short trips like this (4 nights) it's not unheard of for the forecast to be off by 40° in either direction. My brother was just telling me that the only time he didn't bring gloves and an insulated coat was on a July trip up there a few years ago, when they got several inches of snow and temps well below freezing, off a 70° overnight forecast. It definitely makes choosing gear tricky for a spring trip where conditions should be expected to be that unpredictable.

"I wonder if anybody else is going through this kind of re-evaluation, and what other thoughts/strategies/considerations come into it?"

I have one, though I'd call it a strategy for diverse weather in general, regardless of how much or little it relates to a bigger picture like climate change.
After continuing with my vacation plans in spite of hurricane Odile pushing a huge swath of moisture through the CO mountains and causing 7 days of rain to be forecast for my 7 day trip, I ended up being trapped literally inside a thunderstorm for 14hrs at ~11.5k' last September. Then it rained most of the following day and into the next.
At the time, I was using just the fly for my Tarptent Notch, and it was "raining" inside due to the amount of condensation being knocked off the fly.
The experience left me wanting an inner to block wind(and wind-driven rain), and with a solid roof.
The partial solid inner I bought to try out afterwards just has mesh up top, and I've even had condensation that was concentrated at the head end gathering on, then dripping through, the mesh onto my face even when using it in much milder and drier conditions in SW Utah. So while it shields me from the wind and keeps my quilt from getting rubbed against moisture on the walls, it doesn't address all the issues.
I'm debating a bivy like a Katabatic Bristlecone for future trips. There would be no weight penalty vs. the inner if I just kept using my cuben Solo floor when the bivy isn't necessary(which would also give me more room when not using the bivy), so it's a very small price to pay to make a trip more pleasant if the weather turns bad.

My other gear isn't likely to change beyond an extra set of baselayers and carrying a heavier down hoody than the forecast calls for to deal with unexpected temperature extremes. Did that on the same CO trip above, they just weren't needed because it didn't get much below freezing at the coldest. If it had gone into teens or single digits they'd have quickly become necessary "extras" though-which is exactly what happened in Utah two months later when I *didn't* bring them, and had to bail on a hike when it dropped 30F below what was expected with wind chills as much as 70F lower than the temps forecast up until a couple of days before.
1 pound. 16 ounces. That's how much heavier my pack would have been if prepared for that temperature drop vs. what I actually had. Unfortunately, I couldn't traipse 2000 miles back to my closet for my grid fleece bottoms and down parka…

Well, I wouldn't say I was re-evaluating, because I've always taken into consideration the variability of weather and unreliability of forecasts. Here in California, the three-day forecast is fairly reliable most of the year – though somewhat less in the winter. The 5-day forecast is okay in the summer. Beyond that I don't trust it at all, and make plans based on the seasonal norms, allowing for nasty scenarios to one degree or another.
And as Walter says, it's all about how long the trip is. Overnight? You can get a way with anything, almost, and the forecast is pretty close to certain. 2-3 days? A little more margin for error required. A week? a little more. Two weeks and you'd better be prepared – one way or the other – for anything that might happen. Whether you prepare by being ready to bail to a lower, more protected location at the drop of a hat, or by carrying a shelter that can handle foul weather, is up to you. Being in a familiar area gives you an advantage because you know from experience the likelihood of nasty stuff happening, and are familiar with the telltale signs. In an unfamiliar area I'd be more careful.

Depends on how long I'll stay above treeline – trying a mid for camping in those conditions. When hit with blowing rain from all directions, some air flow needs to be sacrificed- that's the point. For sheltered trips, air flow becomes king so looking at a bug bivy/simple trip combo. May need to try the mid raised up before buying another shelter though.

I'm pretty sure the PCT hates me. It has beaten out of me any notion of thinking I can be prepared to handle anything. Instead it taught me I can endure a hell of a lot and that I have more back-up plans than I thought I did.

– Forgot my umbrella and rain gear in the desert? The PCT is happy to rain the hell out of me. Polycro ground sheets can keep you reasonably dry. Nothing really keeps you dry anyway. I learned that in the Washington section of the PCT, where I also had no real rain gear. I finally bought a poncho in Snoqualmie but then it cleared up. Who needs rain gear anyway? Being in rain without adequate rain gear happened on many of my section hikes of the PCT. Somehow I found a way to make do and stay alive.

– Brought a tent so you are safe in any weather? The PCT is happy to provide you gales you couldn't possibly set up a tent in. And then it's happy to rain on you at the same time so you have no alternative. This has happened to me on more than one trip. You can sometimes find a boulder to sleep under. You can also just zip up inside a tent and let it beat on you all night, which sucks. You can also just pack up and keep moving.

– Brought a poncho and feel prepared? What if you're not on the PCT but instead are in the Los Padres National Forest? Yeah, that poncho will last 5 minutes before it's ripped to shreds and then you'll get soaking wet and hypothermic. Better set up your tent and get in your sleeping bag. Oh, but you forgot the stakes? Oh hell, make deadmen out of sticks and rocks. Wear your foam pad as an insulating layer over your wet clothing in the morning. Hike like hell to warm up.

The desert taught me to be ready for freezing to a hundred degrees, in one day. And that winds will reverse direction at night.

The Coastal Ranges taught me to be for anything in-between and that it will be windy, freakishly windy. Nothing dries, just gets wetter.

Tipi taught me that I work too much and never get out for three weeks at a stretch. And that I don't like it that he does. :)

The Carbon Flame War has taught me that anything can be spun.