Craig asked, “Assuming you’re below treeline, is there a physiological indicator that tells you this isn’t a “push it scenario”. ”
Sometimes it is enough to just keep moving… Sometimes it isn’t. Â The physiological clues are fairly obvious:
First, being cold makes your extremities go cold (circulation favouring the core temperature). Â Cold extremities are not too uncommon for anyone who’s done a lot of winter activities, so don’t worry too much.
Second, you’ll start to feel cold all over, and continuing to hike/run doesn’t relieve your coldness.  Now things are starting to “go bad”.  At this point — although it may seem counter-intuitive — it would be ideal to change your base layer and socks.  Yes, stripping down (quickly!) and changing to a dry base layer and socks will usually nip this problem in the bud.  As soon as you’ve re-dressed yourself, get moving.  Also, if you have some warm liquid, drink it NOW.
Third, you’ll start shivering, even though you’re continuing to move. Â If you haven’t put on a dry base layer, do it NOW. (Same re: hot liquid.) Â This is the point where you may/may not have to spend a little time in your sleeping bag/space blanket.
Fourth, you’ll start to feel worse and worse, and your fine motor skills will deteriorate, as will your ability to think rationally. Â Things are now critical.
I think the problem in the case of the woman who died is that she carried nothing that would have helped her in an emergency. Â As long as the hikes went well, she was ok. Â But when she got wet, she had no dry clothing, no warm liquids, and no sleeping bag.
Don’t underestimate winter in the Adirondacks (or any other mountains, for that matter)! Â I never carried a sleeping bag on my winter hikes, but I always had a spare dry base layer, socks, liner gloves, a hand warmer packet (put it next to your heart in an emergency!), and an emergency bivy bag.