SOS text: ‘Bear attack bad’

I can’t cite a study, but most of the people I hike with bring dogs, every time. I don’t think I’ve done a backpacking trip or cabin trip in Alaska, or even a day hike, without a dog in the group, or multiple dogs. The only place I haven’t brought dogs is Denali National Park, since they’re not allowed off the main roads, and not allowed on trails or off trail.

I don’t know anyone who has been attacked by a bear because of their dog. I know someone who had to shoot a bear to protect their hunting camp. I know someone who was mauled because she was in thick brush doing a bird survey (she’s ok). I know folks who have been bluff charged by bears.

There are lots and lots of dogs in Alaska with their hiker/backpacker buddies. I do think people should train their dogs not to chase wildlife and to come to a voice command. That’s both for their own safety so that the dog doesn’t harass a moose or bear, which can end badly, and also to protect wildlife from harassment and attack or kill by the dog. I have witnessed bad dog owners whose dogs killed birds and marmots. Pisses me right off, tbh.

Not a study, but I wouldn’t say no to dogs in my company as a hiker or backpacker, but maybe I’d change my mind if I saw more studies/evidence.

An N of 1 is an anecdote, not data, but in my household, we weren’t concerned that our dog in Seattle would chase squirrels and cats.  The squirrels in the park would scamper up a tree and seemed to enjoy tempting the dogs on the ground, feral cats didn’t belong in our backyard, and while walking around the neighborhood our dog was always leashed so couldn’t get to a cat sitting on its own doorstep.

Then we moved to Alaska and realized we couldn’t have such a laissez faire approach (if we were to let our dog off leash).

So we found opportunities to “set her up” when we saw a moose before she did, let her off leash, we’d call “Kenai, Leave It!”, and then zap her with a training collar.  After only a few times, she concluded that moose were electrified and “Leave It!” worked for moose, small children, and even food dropped on the floor.

We’ve trained every subsequent dog to at least that level (and, again, the current dog knows to come back calmly on her own when she senses any bipeds or quadrupeds ahead).

So I theorize that the average 48-state dog isn’t as well trained for such situations as some/many of us have aspired to here in Alaska.  I’ve seen one newspaper report of a dog bringing a bear back to the owner, but don’t know anyone personally who’s had a problem due to their dogs on the trail.

I really don’t want to get into an argument about statistics on a backpacking forum. I could recite my qualifications, but why bother … anybody can say anything on the internet.

I will just say that there are valid ways to use datasets and invalid ways to use them. It is notoriously difficult to obtain data involving human behavior and reporting that are representative and unbiased, so you really want to avoid the type of analysis that absolutely requires a sample to meet these criteria. And when you combine this assumption with total speculation … it’s just not a good way to draw conclusions. Even if you really want that conclusion to be true.

Probably everyone is as bored with this as I am at this point, so I’ll just urge readers of the thread to exercise common sense and skepticism, and to remember the famous adage “garbage in, garbage out.”

I’m struggling with how to communicate how the stats work (and re-editted this) but the Herrero studies are being misunderstood.

• bear attacks are rare so personal anecdotes of not knowing anyone attacked because of a dog doesn’t answer the question of what influence the dog has in stimulating an attack if a bear is encountered in an at-risk situation.   This is what the Herrero studies help answer
• dogs are present ~ 50% of black bear attacks to the best of our knowledge (not 5.9%, dogs intervened 5.9% of the time)

So bear attacks are rare, but a dog present significantly increases the odds of an attack if a bear is encountered in an at-risk situation.

The best statistical analogy I can think of is seat belt use.   I don’t know a single person that has been killed in a car crash, but that is not an argument to not wear a seat belt.

If you feel the rarity of an accident (dangerous bear encounter like surprising a bear) is a reason to not wear a seat belt (to bring a dog), then that’s a personal choice I respect.  But its not true that a seat belt isn’t a factor in surviving a deadly crash or that leaving the dog at home doesn’t significantly reduce the odds of a bear attack when there is an at-risk bear encounter (based on Herrero).

I don’t find this boring at all.  I’d hate someone to read this thread in 6 months and think bringing a dog doesn’t increase the risk if they surprise a bear on trail.

I totally understand what you’re saying David D, and I got an A in stats, but I think people are mixing up the two Herrero studies cited on this thread. Regardless, no one lives their life constantly assessing their risks based on studies, even after coursework in statistics. Do they?! Ultimately bear attacks are rare and that is backed up by all of these studies. Unlike in a car, where I will wear my seat belt since it’s required by law, and because car accidents are far more likely than bear attacks, I will take the risk of continuing to hike with well-behaved dogs (and well behaved people). Yes it’s an increased risk having a dog along, and one I’m willing to take. I’d still take being lunch for a bear over dying in a nursing home. More likely I’ll do a cartwheel downhill somewhere and that’ll be that.

Anyone bored can go read about condensation in tent studies or the myriad comparisons of stove output.

Hey AK, now we’re talking, thanks.  I don’t even bring bear spray into black bear country any more & my risk tolerance is pretty darn high.  I think all ours here are.  My body is a jigsaw puzzle from years of sport bike crashes (with all sorts of chronic damage and limitations requiring “managing”) and I wouldn’t trade a second of it.

But talk to average person on the street, and they think we’re nuts.  How many times have you been asked “aren’t you afraid of bears?”  I think its important to examine the facts as they are, learn what we can, and avoid colouring the conclusions with our personal biases, so that people can decide for themselves using their own tolerance for risk.

Getting back to the main topic of the tread.  Could this couple have avoided an encounter without the dog?  Who freaking knows?   Statistically their odds would have been notably better without it but their choice to bring their dog was still rationale and appropriate given the over-all risk.

> Anyone bored can go read about condensation in tent studies or the myriad comparisons of stove output.

Mic drop!

bradmacmt,

“There is no doubt in my mind that bear spray will stop the attack but it is going to take you out too.” What do you mean by “take you out too?”

Years ago I had an expired can and wanted to dispose of it. I did not want to throw it in the trash out of fear of it exploding when the garbage truck compacts the trash and was also curious what it would be like to fire off a can. I took advantage of one extreme windy day and attempted to empty it in the backyard. The neighborhood teens and my son watching me from upwind ran for their lives. I stopped spraying as soon as I smelled the pepper and went to the front yard. The neighbors out for a stroll and upwind asked what that smell was while swatting the air before running for their lives. The smell and irritation got stronger in the front yard. We took refuge in the garage from the smell. and irritation. I feared the police or fire department would be called. My son and his friends went to the other side of the neighborhood across from us after the smell dissipated. I then received a phone call asking if I was messing with the can again. They could smell and feel it affects from blocks away.

This experience confirmed my belief that it would stop a bear, no guarantee that it will return once it realizes no harm occurred. It also left me with the impression that if the air is calm you too will eventually be engulfed in the cloud and if it is windy… maybe there is a difference between a short burst vs. emptying the can.

“I think if I were in Polar Bear country I’d be inclined to have a firearm. That’s a different sort of animal than the average grizzly”

Polar bears around Churchill, Manitoba have been conditioned to the sound of air horns due to escalation techniques of encouraging them to leave town and was very effective at the time I was in polar bear country. Due to global warming and its negative consequences on polar bears I would be asking a lot of questions from varying sources to assess the real vs. perceived risks. Every trip has different circumstances and what worked in the past may not be appropriate in the future.

I recently came across some interesting stats from Herrero:

• Herrero: 23 of the 94 black bear attacks studied involved mother bears with cubs.  Mother black bear attacks are rare with cubs.  However, 21 of these 23 involved dogs
• Smith summarizes the situation:
  • “bears have an innate aversion to dogs”
  • letting your dog off leash “is probably the worst thing you can do” in bear country

I recently watched a podcast where the bear “expert” (layperson) claimed that having a dog was a deterrent because it was like having an extra person in the group.  There’s a lot of baloney out there.

Interesting

Bears are competitive with wolves and coyotes

Maybe that explains it?

–dog confronts/goes ballistic over bear

–bear is bigger than dog, and takes it out

–in a state of high aggression, bear attacks people who are trying to call off dog, or anyway smell like the dog etc.

as opposed to,

–curious bear approaches camp with people

–there’s no food, or food is inaccessible in canister

–bear moves on

Yes, this is highly a highly idealized set of alternatives. Still, one might see how a dog could put a bear into an aggressive mode of behavior, rather than scaring it off or merely warning its owners.

Bear spray in a tent. Bear spray in a headwind.

There is a reason some in grizzly country bring a side arm in addition to spray.

The ammoland articles do have a bias, however the long list of bear attack descriptions when various deterrents and the outcomes is informative. Even the lowly rimfire or birdshot have been useful. Many are just reports by the victims of what happened and what worked or didn’t.

Hiking in the Bob Marshall a couple of years ago we ran into two local couples who had real bear dogs. Picture 120 lb dogs, heads wide like a mastiff, long dark fur like a German Shepard , face like a wolf with yellow eyes that said, “don’t touch me or my people”. And the hikers said “don’t touch my dogs”. The dogs were on leash. I don’t know what breed or mix they were, but I have never seen such scary dogs. Hounds of war I imagine. I have no doubt a pair of those would deter most any bear.

Those hikers each had bear spray AND a pistol. Talk about belt and suspenders.

This was just after the woman was killed in her tent after using bear spray camping in the post office lot outside of the wilderness on the west side.