Sierra snow pack info…yikes!

That’s not news to those of us who live in it… Donner Summit still has 20 feet in places and that’s after it has packed down… And.. the way this winter and spring have gone, I would not be surprised to see rain and snow days all the way into June… have seen years like that before… yes… hikers beware the raging waters… in past years people have broken though snow to be swept away by under snow pack raging waters…

“That’s not news to those of us who live in it…”

Well, there are one or two folks on this forum who don’t live in Truckee, so the info may be helpful for planning.

My relatives just sent photos from Mammoth – seriously incredible! I’m heading to Montana instead of the Sierra this year.

sorry, I couldn’t resist. Frank–ly, he he, this captures the essence of Zappa’s sensibility very well.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ialhaxhr7iAhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ialhaxhr7iA

I haven’t looked but let me guess: Goin to be a dental floss tycoon. Waxing ’em up and rollin em down, in a little white box I can sell uptown. My dad was in college with Dr. Francis Zappa.

Hey it’s not just the Sierra. The San Juans are nearly 200% of average. Check Snotel. Way above average in Utah as well, Probably Idaho, Montana and Wyoming. It’ll be a long time clearing or flooding or some of both. Then mosquitoes until September. Beats fire and smoke!

Hey the last big snow year didn’t someone get swept away and drown trying to cross a creek on the PCT just north of Whitney. Was it Wallace Creek?

If the Sierra thaw is rapid Tulare Lake might resemble an inland sea. It’s likely to be interesting one way or another.

“If the Sierra thaw is rapid Tulare Lake might resemble an inland sea.”

I’m wondering how that scenario might positively affect the depleted aquifers throughout the central valley. Drip, drip drip down? I don’t know.

“Beats fire and smoke!”

You would think… but maybe not… seems to me I remember a recent wetter than average winter and had the same thought, but bad smoke season… the explanation given was that all the rain made the grasses and under brush grow more which led to fires that summer… Snow up high does not stop the foothill fires… and the smoke from that can cover the state… :(((

Montana looks less than average snow in most places. Hopefully I’m looking at the right sources!

Montana looks less than average snow in most places. Hopefully I’m looking at the right sources!

Overall, our snow pack is above average, except in the North West portion of the state which is mostly in the 95% (+) of normal range, but which is still pretty good.

https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/wcc/home/quicklinks/states/montana/daily

http://www.wrds.uwyo.edu/wrds/nrcs/updatesur/update-mt.html

Not just Tulare lake, the Great Salt Lake is making a miraculous rebound.

As of Wednesday, however, the lake had risen three feet in a little more than five months, primarily because of snow and rain dumped directly into the lake by a season-long series of water-loaded storms. Salt Lake City has seen its seventh-snowiest season on record and among the most snow of any major U.S. city, with 87.3 inches.

And they are projecting another 3-4 feet with actually snow melt.  Still needs another 3 feet after that to get back to a sustainable level though.

I am hiking the JMT in late August, hopefully by then it will be manageable and no smoke.

https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/data/water/wcs/gis/maps/or_swepctnormal_update.pdf

oregon is a little less than 200% of normal

https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/data/water/wcs/gis/maps/wa_swepctnormal_update.pdf

washington is about normal

But, my hope is that if July is hot, it will quickly melt

On Andrew Skurka’s latest newsletter, he wrote:

“What does this mean for High Sierra backpackers in 2023? You should expect:

Snowpack at higher elevations and on shady or leeward slope aspects that lingers into next winter;
Bug pressure into September, until the first frosts; and,
The most dangerous of all, very high water levels that will make many creeks dangerous to ford, and some simply impassable.
To help keep backpackers safe(r), I have created a:

List of known creek hazards, and
Topographic map identifying these hazards and safer crossing points.
This is a must-have resource for those who plan to backpack in Yosemite, Sequoia-Kings, or Inyo, and on established trails or routes like the PCT, JMT, HST, SHR, YHR, and Rae Lakes Loop”

https://andrewskurka.com/psa-hazardous-high-sierra-creeks-list-map-alternates/

Great year for off piste skiing and backcountry snow camping! Especially once avalanche season ends. But be sure to take an ice axe, crampons, and some climbing rope.

Zappa at 1:57 of the video begins one of my all-time favorite guitar solos :-)

“Hey the last big snow year didn’t someone get swept away and drown trying to cross a creek on the PCT just north of Whitney. Was it Wallace Creek?”

At least 6 people died in high fast water in the Sierra in 2017 (most at lower elevations than the PCT), but that included a PCT thru-hiker, Rika “Strawberry” Morita, 32, from Japan. Other PCT hikers found her body July 23, 2017, submerged in the South Fork of the Kings River in Kings Canyon National Park, California.  Hikin’ Jim chatted with her perhaps earlier on the day she apparently was swept away during a stream crossing.

Yup. It’s a no-win scenario: go early enough to beat fire danger but risk drowning, go later when the water is not running so high but risk wildfires, or go much later for winter/snow camping but risk avalanches. Doesn’t seem like there’s a “safe” season anymore.

I think it will be easy enough to cobble together routes with passable passes–that is, with snow but safe to traverse with or without micro-spikes. But high river and creek crossings are another matter and doubly complicate things.  For example, off the top of my head, I could imagine the Grand Canyon of the Tuolumne being easy to traverse and accessible once 120 opens–but the Tuolumne itself may make the trail impassable in several places. And then there will bridge wash outs for sure.

getting current info will be crucial before going. And that’s not always easy and reliable.

there are tools to look at fire smoke, like:

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=38.84;-119.60;6&l=temperature-2m

I’m not that much into the Sierras, but in the cascades, last summer there was never a time when the Three Sisters wasn’t smoky but I could find other places that weren’t too bad

Predictions of fire, drought, and temps from the National Interagency Fire Center April-July 2023:

https://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/outlooks/monthly_seasonal_outlook.pdf