Richard, as usual, did not provide a citation for the study he cites as the basis for his conclusions. The unattributed quotes are from this paper: Moisture Vapour Transmission Through Waterproof Breathable
Fabrics Under Conditions of Rain by Gretton, et al. This paper can be found on line and downloaded at no cost, which I did. This appears to be a well constructed test and I am not calling its result into question.
In the cited study, a PU microporous membrane is studied along with two other types of WPB fabrics. Richard uses the results of the microporous membrane results to reach conclusions about a PU microspun membrane. We have no information on how the thermal conductivity, vapor transmission characteristics or air permeability performance of the test fabric compares with a PU microspun membrane such as the AscentShell. I suspect it is a leap of faith to apply the results of the PU microporous membrane to a membrane with very different construction and chemistry.
In the cited study, this test was conducted at a single set of conditions. The quantitative results will apply only to the conditions of the test: 91.4oF water, over which the test samples were installed, 41oF ambient temperature with 65% humidity. <span style=”text-decoration: underline;”>The results of this test apply to the single set of conditions that were in place.</span> If we hold the ambient humidity constant and reduce the ambient temperature, the condensation inside the garments will increase. At some point, I expect the differences between the garments would disappear. This would certainly happen when the inner surface temperature of the garment reaches 32oF. and the condensation freezes. As ambient temperatures increase, condensation within the jacket will be reduced and the performance differences between the test fabrics will change.
It is well known that moisture vapor transfer for hydrophillic membranes and bicomponent membranes with a hydrophillic component are significantly impacted by vapor concentration and temperature. As temperature goes down vapor transmission is reduced. As vapor concentration goes up, vapor transmission increases. More can be learned about this here: EFFECT OF TEMPERATURE ON WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT THROUGH POLYMER MEMBRANE LAMINATES by Phillip Gibson. The lesson from this paper is this: The seemingly advantageous performance of the hydrophillic and bicomponent membranes studies in paper cited by R. Nisely may not be present at other conditions which will be experienced in real life use.
The OP is seeking a winter jacket. In cold winter conditions, the DWR performance may become less critical because the wearer will be subject to snow, not rain. Assuming some insulation layers are worn under the jacket, the jacket interior temperature will be closer to the exterior ambient temperature than in the case of the test results. Thus, in real life, the point at which the performance differences between the test fabrics disappear or are reduced is dependent on a variety of variables that the single values of 0 and 50% suggested by Richard Nisely cannot begin to explain.
In the cited study, DWR was applied to the fabrics in a secondary round of testing. The performance of the fabrics all improved. The authors said this about DWR: A good water repellency is therefore essential for the transport of water vapour under conditions of rain. The water-repellent finishes that are used on waterproof breathable fabrics are continuing to improve; however they do not remain effective for the lifetime of a garment. It is therefore, important for chemical manufacturers and fabric manufacturers to continue to work together to further improve water repellent finishes. However, it is also important to educate consumers into looking after their waterproof breathable garments. Dirt and softeners will always have a detrimental effect on water repellency and hence, consumers must understand the need for and benefits of sensible washing, thorough rinsing, tumble drying and reproofing.
In summary: 1) There is no evidence that the performance of the PU membrane in the cited study can be applied to a fundamentally different type of membrane that is AscentShell. 2) The performance in the cited study will obtain under the conditions of the study and the performance will change under alternative conditions. 3) Performance of hydrophillic and bicomponent membranes will change substantially as water concentration and temperature conditions change. 4) Maintain your DWR treatment for best garment performance. 5) All WPB membranes will have performance limitations. In the cited study, no samples leaked. Rather vapor transmission characteristics change. If you are getting wet from the inside, slow down or change your layering and get the best WPB for your expected activities and conditions.
I stand by my initial reply to the OP. However, I am very fond of my current Montbell Versalite for my winter activities in the Colorado Rockies. It is a good value for its feature set and provides excellent protection from the elements.