I hope I explain this correctly, but this is how I see it. See images below.
The standard fill at a nominal fill produces a baffle shape shown in red. The parameters to consider are the baffle cross-sectional area, baffle height, and baffle length.
When this baffle is overfilled, it will definitely increase the total loft, but it will also cause the baffle to form a more cylindrical shape (green lines). This is good because it will cause the baffles to retain their shape and down migration is less likely to occur, causing fewer cold spots. If the down is compromised with moisture or is in need of cleaning, the extra fill will mitigate a loss in nominal loft in those cases, causing the bag to be more warm.
The overfilling can cause the baffle length to contract, since as the loft is pushing out on the shell and liner and closer approximate a cylindrical shape, the baffles will be pulled closer together(it is trying to equalize the pressure it is exerting on inner baffle, shell and liner surfaces). This will effectively make the bag shorter, but that may or may not be a big deal depending on the user size relative to the bag.
When you move to a bag rated to lower temperature, you are effectively increasing the cross-sectional area of the baffle without increasing the circularity of the baffle (see orange lines). This is accomplished by taller baffles. This is just going to make the bag that much more insulated.
I am a little confused by the wording of your question, Turley, but the graph below and my wording would explain why overfill can have the effect it does. I tried to draw as accurate as I could to show the differences, but then I decided it was easier to just draw it in CAD. The CAD shows the area differences between the 3.
1) a nominal 2″tall x 4″wide baffle produces a nominal 8sqin cross-sectional area
2) that same baffle overfilled to produce a 3″ nominal loft produces a cross-sectional area of 10.235 sqin, but at the expense of .175″ of length. This produces a more robust loft for sure than the nominal square baffle, less likely to shift and produce cold spots. But there are the baffle areas which are still only 2″ high, so that is going to produce less warmth than number 3 due to reduced cross-sectional insulation area
3) nominal 3″ tall x 4″ length baffle produces a nominal 12 sqin cross-sectional area.
This is the difference between an overfilled bag vs a bag made for colder temps. From a user perspective, you may not notice much of a difference, and this is going to vary from person to person, but a bag with larger bafffles that are sized and filled properly to maintain down in the areas where it is needed ( we won’t talk about poorly designed or underfilled baffles, those are obviously not worth discussing here) will insulate better than an overfilled bag with shorter baffles. The CAD shows pretty easily why. I hope it is helpful.

