True story:
I was camped at about 5,000 feet in early July in the Cascades. As expected, there was spotty snow around, but enough bare ground to make camp. Weather was supposed to be improving, but wasn’t great yet. Nothing particularly cold, but not warm, either. I had a sleeping bag, a new NeoAir (first generation) and a single wall tarp tent. Since the NeoAir was fairly new, I decided to use a 1/8 inch thinlight with it and put it underneath the pad (to better protect it). Even with all of my clothes on, I was chilly. At some point in the middle of the night, I put the thinlight on top of the NeoAir, which helped. Just that small amount of extra pad warmth was enough.
Of course if I had a warmer sleeping bag, I might not have noticed. But then a warmer sleeping bag would weigh more. What is clear — and this makes a lot of sense — is that a lot of heat is lost to the ground. A patch of ground, in the shade, is bound to be cold. Heat transfer between the ground is bound to be significant. There are a lot of factors that play into overall heat loss (or overall comfort). So much so that I don’t think you can say that an Uberlite is OK for a given temperature — it all depends on what else you have. I know for me, personally, with the gear I had, it would not have been enough, since the Uberlite is not as warm as the original NeoAir. But if you have a system (other than the pad) that is warmer and/or you can better handle the cold, then you will be OK.
Interestingly enough, after that trip I bought a bigger sleeping bag. I would pick the bag based on the trip. Years later, I bought the new version of NeoAir, which is significantly warmer. Now I use the smaller bag exclusively (I don’t do much autumn/winter camping). I developed a very slow leak in my NeoAir, so I decided to just get the XTherm, and discard the Thinlight. It may be that the XTherm is overkill, but the Uberlite seems like the other extreme. For me to be comfortable it would mean moving to a warmer sleeping bag on occasion, which would weigh more than the combination I use.