If you go for a small tarp, you may want to carry an additional triangular piece that can work as a “curtain” to fend off some driving rain or change on the wind direction.  You can leave the curtain out in good weather and deploy it quickly if needed.
Here a couple of pictures from a prototype I made a while ago to see how thing would work. For the final project I did increase the size of the “curtain” and the length of the tarp-poncho. My final hoodless tarp- poncho is 9.5’L x 5’W. Also I carry a very breathable Bivy which I use with this setup.
Half Pyramid:

or in A-Frame (More room, but just one open end covered.

You may wonder what is the point of trying to get a small tarp if you will have to carry an additional “curtain” and a bivy. IMHO it gives you modularity. The 5×9.5 tarp is also my poncho (anything much bigger would not be practical on that capacity), the “curtain” gives you additional protection in driving rain and or change in wind direction, without having to re-pitch the whole shelter, and the bivy adds quite a bit of warm to your sleeping system by cutting down drafts. I also use it may times by itself if weather forecast is good and I decide to cowboy camp.
Here a picture of my final tarp-poncho in half Pyramid. Notice zippered slot where I put my head thru when used in poncho mode. I made this out of Silpoly PU4000 while my prototype was off regular silnylon, the difference in how tout they pitched was noticeable.

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