Ike: there isn’t a wrong choice here (which makes it harder, I know). Realistically, the one that fits you more comfortably will be the better choice; you’ll probably need to buy one of each to figure that out though. Fortunately, it’s easy to sell either secondhand for a minimal loss — think of it like a rental fee for whichever one you end up selling.
If you trust the annual PCT gear survey, ULA Circuit and Catalyst packs are consistently highly rated and highly utilized. Practically speaking, this means a whole bunch of people used the pack every day for ~100 days and were still happy with it at the end. That’s quite a testament from a subset of people who have a lot of extra time to think about what they love and don’t love about their kit. That doesn’t mean these packs are the ~best~ choice; I think it does suggest that one of these ULA packs is rarely a bad choice.
ULA’s standard packs are made with “Robic 400”, which I assume is 400D (or maybe 420D). It’s possible it’s 210D like Dan said, but I can say the fabric of my Ohm is significantly burlier than both the 210D Dyneema-X from RSBTR and the 210dx that MLD has used. I think the durability difference between Ultra 200 and ULA’s Robic 400 is insignificant for your described use case. The difference in mesh fabric, like Dan was saying, may matter.
I have packs in both Ultra 200 (MLD Exodus) and Robic 400 (ULA Ohm 2.0), and I prefer the Ultra 200. In general, I prefer pack fabrics that are more rigid (laminates, like Ultra): they’re easier to pack, easier to find things inside, less noodle-y when wet. Obviously that’s a quality-of-life thing — both fabrics will very effectively protect and hold your stuff.
If I were in your shoes, I’d pick the Kakwa — I think it has more upside, and I’m an obsessive optimizer. If you just want to choose once with confidence that you’ll be happy, I think the Circuit is the safer choice; it’s very unlikely you won’t like it.