Hiker killed in suspected mountain lion attack near Estes Park, CO

I look at the statistics to ease my mind.

This is the main trail where we hike with dogs, and to get out of the wind, it’s just a few miles from my house. It is a well-known area for lion activity, and I know these attacks are rare, but this was a particularly horrific outcome. Knowing that there’s been a pack of lions with observed stalking behavior is pretty unsettling.

It’s pretty unusual. Reading from the article linked below:

They do not have the neurological capacity to have malicious intent.

CPW provided the following tips on what to do if you encounter a mountain lion:

 

 

Do not approach a lion, especially one that is feeding or with kittens. Most mountain lions will try to avoid a confrontation. Give them a way to escape.

Stay calm when you come upon a lion. Talk calmly and firmly to it. Move slowly and never turn your back on it.

Stop or back away slowly, if you can do it safely. Running may stimulate a lion’s instinct to chase and attack. Face the lion and stand upright.

Do all you can to appear larger. Raise your arms. Open your jacket if you’re wearing one. If you have small children with you, protect them by picking them up so they won’t panic and run.

If the lion behaves aggressively, throw stones, branches or whatever you can get your hands on without crouching down or turning your back. Wave your arms slowly and speak firmly. Try to convince the lion you are not prey and that you may in fact be a danger to the lion.

Fight back if a lion attacks you. Lions have been driven away by prey that fights back. People have fought back with rocks, sticks, caps or jackets, garden tools and their bare hands successfully. If you have trekking poles or keys, use those too. CPW recommends targeting the eye and nose as these are sensitive areas. Remain standing or try to get back up.

A lot of unanswered questions’: CPW investigating suspected, rare mountain lion encounter that killed a woman

Sad for this lady and her family. I have no objection to killing the lions involved, which it sounds like they’ve done. I don’t see another reasonable choice.

“They do not have the neurological capacity to have malicious intent.”

What does this mean? Of course they have “malicious” intent if lions see a human as potential prey, if you define malicious as intending harm. I suppose the biologist is trying to tell people lions aren’t “evil” in human moral terms, which would apply to all animals, who act out of instinct rather than “malice.” Since a lot of Americans still have a religious indoctrination that includes everything and everyone being framed as good or evil, it’s a tough fight to preserve some wildlife that can occasionally – rarely – be dangerous to people.

But some do stalk and kill – in the case of American mountain lions, very rarely. They aren’t serial killers; they’re animals. They might want to eat you though. I think about this sometimes when hiking in Alaska amidst the bears.

Perhaps with the lion population strong and healthy in CO, opening up hunting a bit would be a good management choice. I have heard they are good eating.

They don’t walk around looking for humans to kill. Your chances of getting attacked are virtually non existent. They have their natural prey. They normally don’t recognize us as prey. They are hunted.

In a different article on this attack, it was stated to look at an approaching lion in the eyes.

Interesting, as this is the exact opposite advice given if facing an approaching bear.

““They do not have the neurological capacity to have malicious intent.”

What does this mean? Of course they have “malicious” intent…”

That’s funny, I was thinking the same thing.  Only maybe go further, do animals have a sense of morals like humans?  When people try to investigate questions like that, it’s surprising how much animals are like us.  Which isn’t surprising given that we’re animals.

Hunting?  personally, I’m against hunting but that’s hypocritical since I happily eat meat.

But, it does cause animals to be fearful of humans which is good for many reasons, including them not killing us then us killing them in response.  And it probably reduces animals damaging human property or livestock.

Why do bears in the olympic National Park just ignore me when I walk by and just continue eating, but everywhere else, bears run away the moment they see me?  Hunting not allowed in National Park but allowed everywhere else?

I kill rodents in my truck or digging under my patio without a moral problem.  Well, only a little moral problem.  I apologize to them afterwards.

A mountain lion is closer to a feral cat than a lion. They follow the deer or the sheep. Perhaps the warm weather we’re having is keeping them in the higher elevations and mixing them up somehow.

feral cats like to play with their food.  Catch the food, let it go, catch it again,…

humans are even more fun to play with

We project our own fears onto the animals, giving them malicious intent. Some things may excite them. Ponytail on a jogger, a bicycle zipping by.  People feeding the deer, drawing them in. Getting then used to people. Something out of the normal. I’ve only seen one on the trail and it was just a flash. I think I scared it off.

Mountain lion attacks are anomalous, but we do tend to have them occasionally in Colorado, it’s very sad and unfortunate that this one was fatal.

The article mentioned that this was the first fatal attack since 1999, but I can recall quite a few non-fatal attacks since then – at least two locally in the past 20 years. Usually there is something wrong with the animal, but at any given time there are always going to be lions that are old, weak, or sick – and therefore desperate. The woman in Estes Park was terribly unlucky, to say the least.

Malicious intent? Semantics maybe, but I don’t think the terminology makes much sense in the context of a predator. You can’t condemn them for doing what is normal for them to do.

This has been posted elsewhere.

The Mountain Lion Story Is Loud. The Real Risk Picture Is Quiet.
My inbox has been full since the Colorado mountain lion fatality. People are scared. People are asking what to do. Some are saying they will never hike alone again. Others are talking about carrying guns, carrying knives, carrying bear spray, carrying everything.

I get it.

A mountain lion attack is fast, violent, and primal. It hits the nervous system in a way that a slip on ice never will. It also happened close to a populated area, which makes it feel like the danger is now living in your backyard.

But if you want to stay safe outside, you need a clear view of risk, not the version your fear serves you in the middle of the night.
Here is the truth.

Mountain lion encounters and attacks do happen, but fatal attacks are rare, and they get massive attention because they are dramatic.

The things that hurt and kill people outdoors way more often are boring. They do not go viral. They do not make headline news unless the body count is high.

So I want to give you a better risk picture, with real numbers, and then I want to give you simple actions that actually reduce your odds of becoming a statistic.

What Happened in Colorado and Why It Feels So Big

This New Year’s Day attack near the Crosier Mountain area in Larimer County is getting national attention because it was a confirmed fatality and it happened in an area where people recreate close to town. Colorado Parks and Wildlife and multiple outlets have described it as the first fatal mountain lion incident in Colorado since 1999.

To put it in perspective, there have been approximately 2 to 4 documented fatal mountain lion attacks in the entire United States since 1999. That is over a quarter century, across all states, all trails, and all people.

Four. Fatal. Attacks. In. 26. Years.

That is part of why this feels so intense. It is rare enough that it becomes a big story instantly.

To be transparent, my research found that based on compiled incident records, NON-FATAL mountain lion attacks average about one per year across the entire United States. 1 per year.

Now compare that to roughly 53,000 deaths every single year in the United States from falls, drowning, hypothermia, and heat related causes.

You can stop reading right now if you get the picture, or you can keep going if you want the bigger breakdown.

The Numbers That Put This in Perspective

A commonly cited North America total is 29 fatal mountain lion cases since 1868, which works out to about 0.18 fatal attacks per year.

That is not “it cannot happen.” It is “it almost never happens.”
National Park Service mortality data from 2014 to 2019 shows an average of 358 deaths per year across national parks. The top causes are motor vehicle crashes, drownings, and falls.

That matches what most experienced search and rescue people see over and over. It is not predators. It is physics, water, weather, and decisions.

Also worth noting, the NPS reported a 2019 mortality rate of 0.11 deaths per 100,000 recreational visits. That is extremely low relative to how many people recreate.

When you look at broader U.S. numbers, the quiet killers dwarf mountain lion risk by massive margins.

Unintentional falls killed 47,026 people in 2023. Falls alone kill people hundreds of thousands of times more often than mountain lions.

Cold exposure and hypothermia caused 1,024 deaths in 2023. That is roughly 5,600 times more common than a fatal mountain lion attack.

A peer reviewed JAMA analysis reported 2,325 heat related deaths in 2023, reflecting recent increases during extreme heat events. That is roughly 12,900 times more common than a fatal mountain lion attack.

Drowning kills more than 4,000 people per year in the United States, with recent years exceeding 4,500 annually. That is roughly 25,000 times more common than a fatal mountain lion attack.
If you only remember one thing, remember this.

Your odds of getting hurt by terrain, water, and weather are not even in the same universe as your odds of being killed by a mountain lion.

Why People Fixate on Predators. Because fear is not a spreadsheet.

A fall feels like your fault, so it is easy to ignore until it happens.
A predator feels like an outside force hunting you. That story pattern hijacks attention.

Social media amplifies what is emotional and visual. A mountain lion headline spreads fast. A slipped and hit head on icy rock headline does not.

The problem is that fear makes people do dumb things.
They overreact to rare risks and underreact to common ones.
That is how people get hurt.

So What Should You Actually Do

There are two layers here.
The first is mountain lion awareness that reduces the odds of an encounter going sideways.

The second is the bigger picture stuff that actually keeps people alive outdoors.

Mountain lion awareness that makes sense

Take your earbuds out. If you are out there to get away from technology, stop bringing it with you and stuffing it in your ears. Be present and listen. Nature is usually humming with sound, birds calling, squirrels moving, wind through trees, the background noise of life. Pay attention to that. That is your baseline. If everything suddenly goes eerily quiet, that matters. If birds and squirrels start going nuts, that matters too. They are reacting to something. You do not need to be paranoid, but shifts like that should heighten awareness, not get ignored because you cranked the volume.

Lift your head. A shocking number of people hike staring at their feet or their phone. Peripheral vision matters. Predators, terrain hazards, weather changes, and other people are detected early when your head is up and your eyes are scanning, not locked on the trail ten feet ahead.

Trust discomfort without panicking. You do not need a reason you can articulate. If something feels off, weather, terrain, energy, sound, gut instinct, pay attention. Awareness is not fear. Ignoring that signal because you cannot logically explain it is how people talk themselves into trouble.

Pay attention to your dog. What is your dog doing right now? Is it acting normal? Is your small yappy dog suddenly barking more than usual when there is nothing obvious around? Is your big, confident dog glued to your side with its hackles up, suddenly wanting to crawl into your lap? Dogs notice things long before we do. Changes in their behavior matter. Do not dismiss that information just because you cannot immediately see a reason for it.

Walk with a solid walking stick or trekking poles. They help with balance and footing, but they also mean you already have something in your hands if you need it. A sturdy stick or pole can be used to make yourself look bigger, strike, block, or keep distance if something closes in. Do not underestimate the value of having a tool immediately available instead of something buried in a pack or clipped to your belt.

When hiking with others, avoid spreading out so far that you lose visual and verbal contact. Isolation creates opportunity.
If you see a mountain lion, do not run. Do not turn your back. Do not crouch. Do not bend down to pick things up right next to it. Running flips the chase switch.

An air horn can be useful if you use it correctly. It is not something you randomly blast on the trail. If you actually see a mountain lion and it is too close for comfort, a sharp, sudden blast may startle it and disrupt the encounter. That surprise matters. Do not walk around randomly tooting an air horn for no reason. That can reduce its effectiveness or even draw attention. If you carry one, use it deliberately, at close range, and only when it serves the purpose of breaking the moment and shifting the animal’s behavior.

Bear spray works on mountain lions, but only if you understand how it works. It is a close range tool designed to create an overwhelming sensory cloud that disrupts an animal’s approach, and yes, it can be effective on a cat. But wind direction matters. Spray into a headwind and you may blind or incapacitate yourself instead. Know which way the wind is moving before you deploy it, and understand that timing and distance matter. Bear spray is not a magic force field. It is a last line option meant to buy you space by disrupting the moment, not something to rely on blindly or deploy without thought.

Get big and get loud. Arms up. Jacket open. Aggressive posture. Loud voice. Throw rocks or sticks if it approaches. Make it regret being near you.

Protect your throat. A cat’s instinct is not to scratch you or wrestle you. It is to go for your throat and suffocate you. That is how they kill. If a mountain lion closes distance, your neck immediately becomes a primary target. Chin down. Forearms up. Elbows tight. Use whatever you have to guard that space, your arms, trekking poles, a stick, a pack strap, anything. I am not saying wear armor or carry special gear. I am saying understand anatomy and intent. If you are on the ground, this matters even more. Your throat is life or death in that moment, and protecting it buys you time to fight back.

Keep kids close and keep dogs under control. Small humans and loose pets move like prey. Kids run. Dogs run. That movement pattern can invite pursuit.

Pick kids up immediately and hold them close. Do not let them run. Try to keep them calm and still. High pitched panic, flailing, and erratic movement can reinforce prey behavior. The adult should stay upright, loud, and in control.

Pay attention to timing. Dawn and dusk are higher risk periods for predator movement, especially when deer are active and light is low. Winter can push animals into lower elevations and closer to trails, increasing the chance of human encounters, not aggression.
If attacked, fight like your life depends on it. Because it does. Eyes. Face. Head. Throat. Use rocks, sticks, trekking poles, your hands, anything. Do not play dead with a cat.

Firearms and false confidence. A lot of people are flexing right now and saying, “I carry a gun.”
Big f’ing woppedy doo.

Have you trained with it for this? I’m guessing not.

If you are carrying a firearm in a chest rig, backpack, waistband, or any other holster or rig and you cannot draw and get an effective shot on target in about 0.25 seconds, you might as well be carrying a laser pointer and a big ball of yarn.

Just because you took a concealed carry class does not mean you are suddenly John Wick. Even regular range time does not prepare you for a 160 lb animal of bone, teeth, and claws that can hit 50 mph and explode out of concealment with a single purpose on its mind. A mountain lion does not square up. It does not announce itself. It does not give you time to think through draw strokes and sight pictures.

Don’t get me wrong, I am a 2A advocate but people need to recognize their limitations. Do not let it give you false confidence. False confidence gets people killed.

Do not turn your hike into paranoia. Awareness is good. Fear is not. And remember…4 fatalities in 26 years.

The real safety upgrades that prevent most tragedies

Most outdoor fatalities come down to falls and hard impacts. Slow down when the ground is slick. Use trekking poles if they help. Step like you mean it. If the trail is iced over and you are sliding, that is a message.

People treat weather like background scenery. It is not. Wind, wetness, and temperature swings can cook you or freeze you faster than you think. Cold exposure kills people every year. Heat kills people every year. Check the forecast, then look at the sky anyway. If clouds are building and the wind shifts, do not negotiate with it.
Drowning numbers are not small. Creek crossings, slick rocks, cold water shock, spring runoff. People misread water constantly.

Getting lost is usually not a lost problem. It is a decision problem. People keep going because ego hates turning back. Normalize turning around. That is not failure. That is competence.
Fatigue is when ankles roll, footing gets sloppy, and judgment gets weird. A lot of accidents happen at the end of the day when people are rushing to just finish.

Plenty of people die outdoors from medical events. A large share happen during physical activity like hiking and swimming. Know your limits. Know the limits of the people you bring with you. Do not use the trail as a place to discover you have been ignoring your health.

Yes, this mountain lion story is intense. It is getting huge attention because it is rare, fast, and violent, and it happened close to where people live. But animal attacks are low on the list of what hurts and kills people outdoors. Even bison, massive unpredictable animals that people routinely underestimate, injure roughly one person per year on average in places like Yellowstone, yet they do not dominate national fear cycles.

Falls, water incidents, heat, and cold exposure take far more lives every year, and they do it quietly without going viral.
Stay aware of wildlife, but focus your energy on the risks you are most likely to face: terrain, weather, water, navigation, pacing, and knowing when to turn around.

I could keep going. Entire books have been written on this subject, and this post is already long. I’m honestly impressed if you made it to the end. This isn’t meant to cover everything, it’s meant to cover what matters most. So if you have something to add, feel free to put it in the comments. Just don’t say I missed it. I didn’t. I’m keeping this focused.

The Bottom Line
You do not need to stop hiking.
You do not need to panic.

You need a clear picture of risk and a few skills that stack the odds in your favor.

Mountain lion attacks are rare.

Falls, water, heat, and cold are the everyday threats that keep taking people.

If your goal is to come home, train your mind to respect the boring dangers, not just the dramatic ones.

Jason Marsteiner Colorado Mountain Man LLC

I don’t know his expertise, but you can check the facts.

Thank you Terran, Terran. Good article/post. I agree, its a risk but also not something that is common. Not to minimize what happened to the unfortunate gal that got attacked and killed. I feel very sorry for her and her family.

yeah, good post

if you go outside and exercise, experience nature, it will improve your health.  It will reduce the risk of dying way more than the risk of getting killed by mountain lion.  Probably more than risk of dying in a fall, over heating, under heating,…

I imagine these fatal attacks as coming quickly, “out of nowhere” like mountain lions hunt deer – stalking them with great stealth or pouncing from deep cover or from above.  So unlike bears where there are usually red flags (poor sight lines, wind or water background noise, and food (berries, fish) food sources) prior to most encounters I’ve had (and usually several red flags); and unlike lightning with its attendant thunderclouds and literally hair-raising warning signs, maybe there aren’t last-second things to do if it was going to be a fatal attack?

Still, sure, in a face off, make noise, act agressive (there are apex predators and armed humans future back in their ancestry) and don’t run away.

These aren’t 500-pound male African lions or 300-pound females.  They range in weight from that of a small man to that of a very small woman.  Put up a fight!  Our smaller primate ancestors in Africa dealt with larger lions successfully enough for us to be here now.

For black bears, I’ve long practiced having a some fist-sized rocks that I throw hard and/or a stout stick with the intention of bashing them with it when I finish running up to them.  And they always bolt.  Having the improvised weapon gives my confidence that they preceive and react to.

I think sometimes the mother gets killed which results in rogue juveniles. Unfortunately women and children take the brunt of it. Folks forget the cats are out there and let their guard down. There’s nothing wrong with being a little bit afraid. It helps keep you alive.

Since this popped back up, I just noticed this comment “Unfortunately women and children take the brunt of it”

So I looked at the list of fatal cougar attacks on wikipedia (may not be the definitive list but it’s a start) and of the known sexes killed there are:
<p style=”text-align: center;”>18 males</p>
<p style=”text-align: center;”>10 females</p>
 

Can’t even say it’s more likely to be children, if you look at the stats. Maybe if you looked at attacks and not deaths?

Anyway 28 in a century isn’t very many. But it still gives me the willies when I’m alone and see fresh tracks, cougar or bear. And yet the man/bear question is still answered by “bear.”

I guess I was wrong. My comment was made over memories of research that I did many years ago. My point was made because as a 200 pound human, I feel I’m less prone to attack than someone that weighs less than me. For me to say ” just don’t worry” seems a little disingenuous. It may be a that feeling of invulnerability men sometimes have that leads to a higher death rate.

It may be a that feeling of invulnerability men sometimes have that leads to a higher death rate.

A death rate would be the percentage of attacks that result in death of the victim.  I believe AK Granola was citing simple counts of deaths.  If so, a predominance of men could be explained by more men being in the outdoors or more men being alone in the outdoors.

Edit:  I meant to add that I think it completely reasonable to expect the cats to be more inclined to attack smaller people.