Well, looking at your gear, I would say you are safe and comfortable down to about 30F. You could “survive” much more, but it would take using your clothing in your bag. Your kit looks a LOT like my light weight gear for the ADK’s for the first 20-25 years of my hiking/camping. While you can save a few ounces here and there, at this point all you can do is start buying/replacing existing gear with lighter gear to make the leap from Lightweight to Ultra-Lightweight (UL.)Â And yes, I have seen snow on the Fourth of July in the ADK’s, too.
Whether you can ever hit UL weights (<10#) with your base kit without new gear replacements isn’t a question. All you can do is simply drop stuff to save significant weights. You have what I consider the basic requirement and it is all good gear. A few luxuries, that are not very heavy. It is hard to make a decision to replace an expensive, good 20degree bag/pad system to go to an equally expensive, lighter quilt/pad system to save less than half a pound of weight.
First, a little theory. Typical of many lightweight kits, there is little consolidation and integration displayed. A classic example of consolidation is using a spoon as a stake so you can drop a stake. This consolidates your kit by removal of non-essential items. A good example of integration is using a compression sack as a pillow integrating volume management into your packing kit. Volume can be as important as weight, because in your total pack, it means you need less space and therefor, a smaller/lighter pack. This leads to the notion of systems. Integration of your packing system with your camping system will lead to the lightest possible weight for your hiking system. In practice, you go back and forth between integration and consolidation depending on what you want to optimize (base camping, travel, comfort, climbing, fishing, hunting, etc.) Anyway, enough theory…
I’ll list some stuff, and you can take it from there. Of course, you don’t need to change anything, you are FIRMLY in the Lightweight range (<20pounds.) You will note, that going from a Traditional Backpacking kit to a Lightweight kit is counting pounds. You have already done that. Going from a Lightweight kit to an UL Kit means counting ounces. Going from an UL kit to a SUL kit means counting grams. I assume you are shooting for UL by showing us your Lightweight kit as the starting point and asking for lower weight. There are few items you can justify as just eliminating…most gear you need, though.
The pack is heavy. At more than 20% of an UL weight goal, it needs to be swapped. A 10%pack weight is allowable. At 10% this means an 8oz pack for SUL, a 16oz pack for UL, and a 32oz pack for Lightweight. (You also want to add some pad keepers, for your pads as part of integration.) Per item (the pack) you can save ~18oz. But, you also maintain structure with the pad keepers, they add volume (about 250-400ci) and they add cushioning against your back while maintaining comfort.
Inflatable pads weigh less: Swapping to an Xtherm won’t save weight, but will extend your temp range. Swapping to a medium durability Xlite will save 4oz. Swapping to an Uber will save 7oz.
Switch to a quilt for temps >20F. Your Egret is a good bag. But, it weighs 27ounces. A 20F quilt is lighter (around 5oz.) But, you need to consider it as part of an overall sleeping system. The pad, protective layer below it, the quilt, your hat and/or balaclava work together to save that 5 ounces. In addition to a sleep system, a hat and a CCF underlay pad enhance the use as part of the hiking system, or the CCF pad could be used as a SitLite pad. It doesn’t need to be a separate pad for each chore. (Actually, it makes a GOOD chair sitting on it and folded behind you as a back against a rock or tree.) A kind of philosophical leap…
Extra pads: Drop these and use a single fan-fold pad. This adds structure to frameless packs, and, doubles as extra padding/insulation/protection while sleeping, as a SitLite pad, and as a chair lounging at camp. A true multi-purpose item.
Use a ZPacks Plexamid at 16oz(incl stakes/lines.) Or one of the yet to be released BA Scout tents at 14oz including a good polycro ground cloth. Bugs are the bane of Alaska. Keeping them out on warm evenings is important. It becomes part of your hiking system with the hiking staff(s.) Again saving some weight.
Your cloths I will let sit as is. I don’t care for the rain pants or rain jacket, preferring a simple nylon/PVC rain jacket at 7.5oz, but, whatever makes you comfortable. (I also use my rain jacket as a ground cloth and carry a small piece of plastic at about 1oz as a ground cloth, but I use a tarp.) I never use rain pants. It is either too warm to bother with them, or, it is simply snowing. I always keep my sleeping cloths dry, along with my quilt/bag, puffy layer and socks. I put them in a small compression sack (also turned inside out and stuffed with my pack as a pillow.)
I would also leave the Ursack in your pack, in Alaska. While I normally carry a 3-4oz bear hang kit (ditty bag doubles as a rock sack, line, bag doubles as food bag) Bears can be a real problem. Pines and bear bagging can be a problem. So, the Bearikade or Ursack is fine.
You surely don’t need the Windburner, though. A small 3oz stove, a 3.5oz pot/lid and wind screen, a spoon at .5oz, and a 1.7oz cup will handle more cooking chores as well as boil water for around 9oz. In either case, a 4oz allowance for an empty canister, .5oz for a lighter, the 8oz Ursack and line, means you can save about 21oz…a significant savings.
Leaving your misc gear alone, you can save about 5 pounds, with somewhat increased comfort levels: carrying less weight, camping with everything needed, and, improved flexibility in accomplishing tasks. Still not a UL kit, though. But a 5 pound savings is significant and places you within range of even lighter weights as you move forward. As it is, your weights for your existing gear impose limits on you. From this point on, I could suggest some simple gear replacements and/or mods that will let you get your base weight for three to five days lower and still maintain your comfort at 25F+. But, this post is long enough.