Darcy Piceu – JMT Supported FKT attempt (NOBO)

Re smoke:  There are half-face respirators for particulates but they do increase breathing effort a bit – even at modest exertion, and add some weight, heat, and bouncing to your lower face.  I could see hiking in one much easier than jogging/running with one.  If trying to pull off something like this and not be hampered by the poor air quality, I’d consider taking a few hits from an asthmatic’s Albuterol inhaler every hour.  It would leave your airways less reactive / constricting due to the smoke.

Thanks for posting all the data and providing the color commentary.  It’s been fascinating to follow-along, vicariously, as I sit at my computer banging out cost estimates.

It looks like Darcy stopped for 1h 40m at Red’s, and started moving again at 3pm.   She has just turned off the PCT up toward Minaret Creek.

Darcy is on the move again!

(bah, Ralph posted while I was writing this, I’ll post it anyway.)

Looks like she stopped for about 90 minutes at Red’s.

She needs to average 2.81 mph from here on in to surpass Leor’s time. Based on how she’s been moving, that should be quite achievable–she just has to keep doing what she’s been doing, for another 58 miles!

Note that my table shows that her and Leor are essentially tied at this point, but that’s because for whatever reason, my splits for Leor show his break occurring on the other side of the San Joaquin, north of Red’s. I don’t think that’s accurate, but I’m not going to try to fix it now. The reality is that she has a ~4 hour margin or so on Leor’s time, at this point.

I think it’s time to guess Darcy’s finishing time.   I’m going with 3d 3h 33m.

She’s had, what, 3hr of sleep so far? This is going to be a tough night! If she can get to TM maybe 2am it might be before the wheels come off. Then she could get a nap & bring it in! Oh man the 3rd night is hard! Go Darcy!

Update from Jeff on FB:

“I went over Duck Pass and intercepted her about halfway between that trail jcn & Purple Lake at appx 10am. We made great time all of the way to Reds Mdw. She was surprisingly talkative and upbeat still, just like she has been the entire way.
Arrived at Reds Mdw appx 1:20pm & left, running, with Billy Simpson at 3pm after <1hr nap & lots of calories.
Regardless of what happens in the final 100K I am infinitely inspired, impressed, and just plain in awe of what I have been a part of to this point…”

Video he posted shows her running well down into Red’s meadow and in good spirits at Red’s while getting resupplied, eating, and resting. She is now nearing Shadow lake. I think she will easily beat Leor’s time – I’m guessing she finishes in just under 3 days 3 hours.

Yeah, night 3 is going to be grim.   And there’s no moonlight at all.   Still, it’s good that she has got through the heavily wooded section between Red’s and Garnet before dark, in darkness that can be one of the most disorienting parts of the whole trail.

Shadow Lake junction at 6:06pm,  she has managed to maintain 3mph between Red’s and Shadow, a section that includes a 1500′ elevation gain.

ETA: I see Allen reports that she has a pacer.  That could make all the difference through the night – provided he knows the way, of course!

Billy has hiked the JMT so some familiarity. Hopefully they won’t make the mistake of giving her an over-tired pacer for the last night (remembering Flyin’ Brian’s failure at Sunrise High Camp).

(edit: I too just saw the comments about her having a pacer. That’s good!)

I’m going to be a little more pessimistic than you guys.

My reasoning is: She’s got about 45 miles to go, but much of it will be in the dark. Hopefully she has a pacer to guide her home. Even if she does, pulling off >3 mph is tough in the dark (or so I guess, I’ve never tried).

Then there’s fatigue. Can she push through this third night without a stop?

She does have a lot of descent, and that’s clearly in her favor.

So, my forecast is: no real stop tonight, but a constant push at just-under 3 mph. A little pick-up in speed once the sun rises. She averages 3 mph from here on out.

That would put her at about 78h 30m for a finish time (3d 6h 30m), or about an hour ahead of Leor.

I think it’s going to come down to the wire.

That’s what I think is the most probable outcome, but it could go a lot of ways from here, and it wouldn’t surprise me. She could crush it, and do 3d 3h. Or she could DNF. Neither would shock me. Huge standard deviation in the probable outcomes, in my opinion.

All that said–go Darcy!

For those of us unsupported Death Marchers, how is pacing done?  I imagine during the day, one runs/hikes behind a more alert and rested pacer letting them do all route-finding, decisions on pacing and likely keeping up an encouraging banter to keep one’s mind off the pain and tedium.

But at night?  Does a pacer have 5 pounds of batteries and LED lights to blast the trail ahead with light?  And maybe some belt-mounted lights pointed down to illuminate the trail in front of the runner?

Tunes on a loudspeaker?  Eye of the Tiger and Chariots of Fire theme kind of stuff?

in official ultra races pacers are theoretically safety companions and each race director sets the pacing rules for his race, but generally the runner is supposed to go first and the pacer is not allowed to carry any of the runners stuff including food and water. these rules are adhered to by varying degrees based on the conscience of the runner and the strictness of the race director.

I’ve never heard of any rules or even suggested policies in FKT stuff, so I assume anything goes.

you don’t need all that much light to keep a 3mph pace in the dark, 2 lights at 50 lumens each would work.

Darcy has reached the Rush Creek junction at 9:45pm.   She has slowed a little, covering the undulating 9.1 miles from Shadow Lake at a speed of 2.5mph.

She was atop Donohue around 11:30pm.

Her progress up Donohue was relatively slow (for her). Her 5h 24m lead over Leor has dropped to 3h 54m. That’s mostly owed to Leor’s speed after leaving Red’s.

Regardless of that, the calculus is remarkably simple: she needs to average >2.88 mph from Donohue to Happy Isles for the overall record. She has 12h 15m to go 35.2 miles; about seven of those hours will be dark.

Good luck tonight Darcy! Stay sane!

After moving quickly out of Red’s, Darcy’s pace between for the 28 miles between Shadow Lake and Tuolumne eased up, but remained steady through the night, averaging 2.6 mph.

She reached the west end of Tuolumne (the Cathedral Lakes junction) at 4:55am, and has been taking a break there for an hour.

20.8 miles to Happy Isles.   Just under 6 hours remaining to break Leor’s record, and the pace required has crept up to 3.6mph.

Copying from the FKT forum:
Darcy’s DeLorme may run out of juice after Tuolumne Meadows. But she has a Spot Tracker and the link is here: tinyurl.com/y8rzoh3e

And Darcy’s moving again.   It looks like after resting for just over an hour she left the Cathedral Lakes TH at the west end of Tuolumne at about 6:00 am.

Here are the arrival times (assuming Darcy’s 4:09 departure time) that correspond to the fastest NOBO times recorded (not forgetting John Tidd’s remarkable effort SOBO just recently).

11:45 – Leor Pantilat, supported, 2014
15:09 – Andy Bentz, unsupported, 2014
16:50 – Koerner & Wolfe, supported, 2013
18:22 – Brett Maune, unsupported, 2009
00:09 (just after midnight tonight) – Sue Johnston, supported, 2007

It’s pretty amazing how knowledge & expectations have changed for this trail in the past few years.    10 years ago, I think people would literally not believe that Darcy was doing this.

Another near real time update from Jeff:

“thankfully the DeLorme is keeping its shit together & battery should last until the champagne is popped in Yosemite Valley… unfortunately, I will not be there. real life calls. I’ve never seen anyone I’ve helped touch that sign at Happy Isles…just the way it seems to keep playing out.<span class=”text_exposed_show”>
Darcy moved well until about Thousand Island Lk then things got rough…a cough, very minor at first, she has had from the getgo, leftover from a headcold last week, reduced her to mostly hiking over Donohue and, unfortunately all that very runnable Lyell Cyn flat. Billy said that whenever she ran she would pay for it with a doubled-over hacking cough. She didn’t cough up any black tar aliens like Karl Meltzer did at Hardrock one year, but still the sensible governor had to be applied to the pace. The cold dampness of night made it worse so it should hopefully get better for her now.
I met up with them 5 miles out at Rafferty Ck to pull them in. That section always seems to go on forever. The cheeriness was definitely being buried by the monumental effort & disappoinment in not being able to run, but she still laughed when Billy gave her the trailname “Doc Holliday” because of that hacking cough.
She arrived at the Cathedral Lks trail jcn triage/yard sale/resupply camp at about 4:45am, and, incredibly, was back on the trail for the final push with Betsy Nye at 5:58am.
Leor’s overall looks like it will stand but a big chunk will be taken out of the women’s supported time, and she just might end up with a top 3 overall time if she smells the hay warming in the barn down in the valley below the house of the rising alpine sun…”</span>

The JMT Cough strikes again! :(

Cathedral Pass at 7:25am.    If she left Tuolumne at 6:00am (it’s a little hard to tell exactly), that’s a quick split, 3.3 mph uphill.

ETA: Allen has confirmed the departure time, so she’s definitely moving quickly after her rest.

16 miles to go.  Barely more than a half marathon!

I still think she has a shot at Leor’s time, but it is looking less and less likely.

Based on my numbers, she’ll have to average 3.76 mph from Sunrise to Happy Isles to tie Leor.

She just put up a 3.57 mph split between Cathedral Pass and Sunrise HSC, so she’s still capable of moving well.

Just a few hours left, one way or another!

Yup, I wouldn’t quite dismiss the possibility of beating Leor’s time just yet.   If her lungs hold up, she has runnable downhill or level trail for most of the remaining miles.    We should get a split at the Merced Lake junction soon to get a better sense of how she’s moving when she has the opportunity to run.

Thanks for the play-by-play, you guys are great.  Anxious to check back in throughout the morning.  Darcy is amazing; the cough sounds horrible…

I’ve been imagining Vin Scully (of Dodger baseball fame) narrating as I read this.  Ultrarunning/FKTs should be on the radio; I could work to this.

I’ve got a freshly blown ACL so this is nice vicarious living.

The Garmin is going wacky now with the batteries fading, but regular pings from SPOT.    It looks like she is close to the Merced Lake trail junction, ETA 9:40am.    That’s a pace of 3.3 mph since Cathedral Pass (pretty steady at that pace all the way from Tuolumne).

8.6 miles to go,  2:05 to Leor’s record.   If she maintains her current 3.3 mph pace, she will be just half an hour outside Leor’s time.

Well, if Darcy’s latest Garmin ping is accurate, then she’s moving at just over 4 mph, and has a pretty good shot.

This is exciting.   I wonder how long it will be until we can do real-time video upload when out of range of cell towers?