CT thru – which rain top?

Three points to consider:

1) you can’t accurately predict the weather from someone else’s prior experience… especially in the mountains where even the professional weather forecasters can’t get it dependably right more that about 3 days out.

2) talking yourself into ultra-light marginal rain gear at home looks entirely different when actually out on the trail with leaking rain gear and you are tired, wet, cold, and shivering….

3) the longer the trip, the more likely you will encounter worse weather than you planned for…

Satellite imagery is pretty good. I watch the weather.  The clouds can be read. This is ultra light. We’re grown ups. The road is close. I know the risks.
I’m figuring temperatures possibly down to 30* with 20* not being totally unlikely. I don’t worry about tornadoes in the flatlands or not wearing rain pants for cold dry air.

There’s folks that take a lot less than I plan on. There’s folks that take more. It all depends where you find your comfort.

“you can’t accurately predict the weather from someone else’s prior experience… especially in the mountains where even the professional weather forecasters can’t get it dependably right more that about 3 days out.”

Im general that is very true and I agree with your whole post but Colorado in July 1 to early August during the monsoonal flow which can swing over its almost impossible to predict even a one day forecast. The storms don’t march in like winter storms do. They form in place and very quickly at times. Usually they just say 20% chance all week to cover their sixes. In Arizona catercorner to Colorado that’s what we live with. We have gone 100 nights of backpacking with no rain. Sometimes the rain storms were all around us but hardly a drop on our specific location. Once we almost drowned. Knew a very active group that didn’t carry rain gear after many backpacks with no rain and then on one of their epics, un-forecast,  it never let up. After that they always had rain gear on board.

Several Boy Scouts died on the saddle of a mountain that I can see from my house about 40 miles away to the south. They as Boy Scouts were not prepared with rain gear, dressed in jeans and cotton t-shirts. They succumbed very quickly. They didn’t see the weather to the south until they reached the saddle and then it was on them. It was sunny November, temps in the 70s and no rain forecast. It is very steep, one of those where you don’t want to step off a switchback. Two of the boy’s bodies slid down the mountain.

Every time we summit from the south face we walk past that saddle and the three stone monuments with all the offerings.

The mountains are a bad place for luck to run out while underprepared. Yes, ultimately it’s up to the individual to decide but they should be fully informed of possible risks while deciding.

I don’t think anybody is talking about wearing cotton and not bringing rain gear.

I’m sorry about the kids in Arizona. The trail can sometimes be dangerous.

The clouds coming in through the pass over Colorado Springs. Pikes to the left.

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Shawn – please let us know after the trip how the rain situation was….I feel these weather patterns happen in cycles. Last summer it rained everywhere in the west I think. This summer appears dry…..

Denver set a new  record for rainfall in June.

“I don’t think anybody is talking about wearing cotton”

Not implying that and was quoting the post above yours. It was a tangent  with that. We have hiked and camped Colorado and had at least a couple dozen aerial mapping missions over that incredible state but will defer specific gear for the CT to those very familiar. I just have a passion for protective clothing for the changing conditions in the mountains and canyons. It can be wild.  Did you take those photos from your property?

“This summer appears dry…..”

We were out in the mountains for five hours this morning very early and totally dry here. The man on the radio just said possible rain this weekend with a…guess it…a 20% chance. We hope there will be some monsoon activity but it could totally disappear too.

The weather here is actually fairly predictable. Moisture comes from California. Usually around 3 days. Drops off a bit in Arizona, builds up along the divide where it pressurizes and blows cold air through the passes. Air travels down from Canada and mixes in. It travels the passes until it hits the north/south air flow along the ridge. Much of it circles around my house. We had tornado warnings a few days ago. . We had a little bit of hail, but most of of it just blew by a few miles to the east. I watched out my front window. I took those pictures out back. I’m at a higher elevation than Colorado Springs, so it’s hidden from view.

I went out to section 1 a few days ago, but didn’t go far. I had the dogs and  they were getting hot. I got a tan walking under the canopy. It was humid from the rain. I was actually headed on a dirt road to section 2 and came to a 15* downgrade. I didn’t want to deal with it in my little car. I’ll go a different way next time. Leave the dogs at home. It’s a barren section with 10 miles between water.
20% chance of rain, usually there’s a dark cloud dropping water and passing through and there’s a 20% chance that it’s going to pass over you.
I enjoy the summer rain.

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Yeah I see it on the map. You have an incredible, huge playground right there. Easy to get a hiking fix and in such iconic country.

There’s a lot of tourism. The CT has to be one of the most highly documented trails out there. There’s no permits required and there’s only a short season when the passes are clear. There’s sections you’re warned not to camp in because of all the existing cat holes. I follow the groups online. One guy posting that he was doing it in drag. More power to him.

I’d say most of the trail veterans bring a full rain suit and a puffy. Some only a rain jacket. One recommendation for Light Hearted Gear. That’s probably what I’d get if I needed one. I had one made by Luke a long time ago. The eVent material is very nice. It’s long. Has pit zips and pass through pockets. Adjustable hood. I don’t see anything on the market with pass through pockets though. They’re a game changer. They add ventilation and it’s nice to reach into your warmer jacket or hoodie pockets where you may actually store stuff. I can’t recommend any brand.

Section 2 is a burn area with little shade,  A 10 mile dry stretch mostly uphill. It doesn’t get up to 10,000 until section 3. After 3, there’s a shuttle into Breckinridge if one decided they wanted heavier gear.

I read a report this morning from the end of section 6 saying the weather has been nice. No bear trouble. The only pictures of bears I see are in town.

There’s a lot of tourism. The CT has to be one of the most highly documented trails out there. There’s no permits required and there’s only a short season when the passes are clear. There’s sections you’re warned not to camp in because of all the existing cat holes.

Yes, any time I venture near the CT on a trip, I’m reminded of why I want to avoid it. Some of the terrain is lovely, but it’s effectively an ant trail for people who like to be around a lot of other people while hiking/camping, which does not describe me. But hey, if it keeps the out-of-state visitors concentrated to one highly publicized corridor, that’s better for me, so I really shouldn’t complain.  :-)

Apparently the annual event is going strong. Yesterday, as I was returning from the South San Juans on 285, I saw a couple of people (apparently through-hikers) walking on the shoulder of the highway. I never noticed people there before, but perhaps it has become a re-supply point. I saw many others on Kenosha Pass, of course.

Anyway, that’s obviously off-topic. I’m not sure why some people are talking about “marginal” or no rain gear. Every option the OP mentioned is a solid choice that would be sufficient to keep him safe, assuming he has insulation/hat/gloves, etc. Some are lighter and more compact and others will keep him more comfortable if he has to hike for days in unrelenting rain. Just the usual trade-off that involves personal preference.

One must decide the odds and if they need to be hiking for days on end of heavy rain. What type of insulation or clothing they have, as well as tarps and shelters and above all, have an exit planned. Personally, I wouldn’t stay on trail.