Crowds–they’re evreywhere

Welcome to California?

Great article Paul. Thanks for this.

So much comes down to housing and traffic. Good analysis that it’s the workers having to commute that cause a lot of traffic issues.

I wonder how much Airbnb has exacerbated the housing issue?

You mention the huge number of homes that are only occupied several weeks out the year. I also wonder how many homes are being bought by investors, some from out of country, that stand entirely empty. In some cases people abroad want to move their money offshore and see real estate in the U.S. as a safe haven. Especially if their home economies are at risk. Here in Berkeley people often show up to buy a home cash in hand. And they overpay with no concern. It makes you wonder.

Meanwhile schoolteachers and cops and firefighters can’t afford to live where they work. As you write, something’s wrong with this picture.

I wonder if requiring people to actually live in the house they own, or at least being an active seller, is an avenue. But I already see this idea being shot down in the courts.

Mountain towns in Colorado are also struggling with lack of housing for locals/workers, which has been greatly exacerbated by short-term rentals. The current popular solution is to stick it big-time to second-home owners (many of whom are long-time multi-generational owners), generating tax revenue and then supposedly using the revenue to build massive amounts of low-income housing. In some cases, the sizes of these proposed projects are shocking, potentially increase the population of the town by 10-20%, but without any real infrastructure improvements. Part of the problem is that these small towns don’t really have the expertise to make sophisticated and knowledgeable decisions in the face of these complex problems. And of course, the city council, mayor, etc. often have multiple short-term rentals themselves and/or are closely connected to developers.

Very few of these projects have been completed yet, so it’s hard to say whether they will solve any problems or just make things worse. However, there are indications that the same cycle of greed will continue. For example, in our town, we’re already hearing a lot of grumbling from the potential owners of the new “low-income” housing about whether they will be able to rent out those properties on AirBnB. And believe it or not, this proposal is being seriously considered.  :facepalm:

And there’s another thing. In Wyoming, out of state people will buy large homes and claim them as their primary residence on their tax forms. Wyoming deliberately has a tax code to make this profitable for the out of state rich who don’t live there at the expense of those who live and work in the area.

People often complain about taxes in California—mainly billionaires like Musk with a megaphone. and then they go on to complain about deficits.

What other means do states have to garner revenues? and more to the point: given current legalities, what means do they have to discourage Airbnb and using real houses that stand empty as placeholders for Russian and Chinese billionaires looking for safe haven in the more or less stable economic environment of the U.S.?

I also wonder how insurance rates are going to effect the housing market. Even before the recent horrors in L.A., insurance rates have skyrocketed here due to global warming, frankly.

Municipalities can regulate short-term rentals, if they have the will to do it. Our town requires short-term rental licenses and originally offered them in a lottery. Unfortunately, they issued too many (in most people’s opinions) and then they later decided they wanted to cut back. However, this was very unpopular amongst landlords, so they grandfathered all of the existing licenses, and it will take a long time for those changes to have an impact.

The town has also flirted with a higher property tax for residences not used as a primary residence. In fact, this was on the ballot last year, but fortunately didn’t pass.

Given the opportunity, and especially in a vacuum, people will choose what benefits them the most, even when they know it’s contrary to the greater good. Americans are no different. I’d even argue that Americans are globally some of the worst at selflessness.

And the crowds will only get more manageable if there is an event of mass extinction. There are already about 7.5 billion more humans than there should be. That sounds harsh on the surface, but do the math and look into your own crystal ball and see what it predicts.

Uff da.

Until then, I love my Duplex and my X-Mid and that so many people are so lazy that 1 mile into the backcountry they both become a fortess of solitude. 👍🏻🤣

If you build it, they will come. I’ve lived in North county, on the central coast and in Lake Tahoe. Palm Springs with its snowbird population. Everybody wants to be where it’s nice. It’s not about creating low income housing for the servants, it’s about high enough pay for them to live. Otherwise, do it yourself.

Not sure policemen, fireman, school teachers and mailmen qualify as servants, but yes, somehow in these communities the balance is out of whack. I’d suggest tht you need both; a living wage, and an affordable place for “normal people” to live.

Billionaire Wilderness: The Ultra-Wealthy and the Remaking of the American West, by Justin Farrell.  It is about the Jackson Hole area.  Not exactly uplifting, but a good read.

Public servants doing official duties. No disrespect meant.

As a contractor, folks used to complain because prices were higher in high dollar areas. That was because I had to pay to live close by. If not, I had to commute, which took my time and money.

California is ran by realtors. After 55 years, I left.

Nice article.

Outdoor recreation exploded during the COVID outbreak, and doesn’t seem to show any signs of slowing down.  Every facebook and Reddit group that I’m on, dedicated to a particular hiking area, has the same complaints:  trailheads are packed, trail towns are super busy during peak season, trails are getting trashed by careless users, and local resources, including Search & Rescue are  stretched to the limit.

Short term rentals (AirBnB) and social media influencers have also contributed to the problem.  Also, in the US alone, the population has grown 22% between 2000 and 2023.  There’s just a lot more people, and it’s not like we can keep adding more tails, more back country camping, more campgrounds, etc.

Not sure what the answer is, but I wouldn’t be sad to see mountain towns cracking down on short term rentals so that housing is more affordable for the locals.  JG H sorta has a point, even though it seems really harsh.  Go see the 1976 movie “Logan’s Run” for one dystopian solution.

“Billionaire Wilderness: The Ultra-Wealthy and the Remaking of the American West, by Justin Farrell.  It is about the Jackson Hole area.  Not exactly uplifting, but a good read.”

Yes. this is the article I was thinking of in my second post.

The Billionaire Wilderness is a bit of a sad book.  The billionaires seem like a lonely lot.

Maybe they should go to that Island in Atlas Shrugged and leave us alone? : )

… trailheads are packed, trail towns are super busy during peak season, trails are getting trashed by careless users, and local resources, including Search & Rescue are  stretched to the limit.

I think this is partly because everyone wants to go to the same places, and maybe this is partly driven by influencers, blog posts, and trip reports. Fortunately, I’m not seeing any significant changes in the remote places that I favor. I have always sought out places where I could experience solitude, and my experiences really haven’t changed. Outside of hunting season, I rarely see anyone on the middle days of a trip, when I’m away from trailheads.

I just spent 5 nights walking down the Rogue River.  I saw one person who was day hiking.

In the summer it would be fairly crowded.

Microbes will do their part to reduce population, no matter how anyone feels about it. Overpopulation is generally put in check by nature, and nature is not necessarily benevolent.

Okay back to the housing crises and our recreation. When you travel, you can easily research to see if the AirBnB you’re renting is locally owned by a small time business, or owned and managed by a large corporation. Make your choice accordingly. Rent local, shop local, eat local. And don’t sell your house to these greedy monsters. Eat the rich!

Collectively, small business can rip you off as well and be as much a burden on the population as the large ones.

Yes, but at least that money tends to get spent again locally …not in child labor factories in 3rd world countries…or banked in off-shore accounts.

I’m not so sure that’s as true as it once was. You’re probably getting investors from San Francisco. Joshua Tree is being bought up by LA investors. Some own a couple houses. Some own a hundred. Contracts are made in the cities. Major purchases are made in the cities.  A lot of inherited money.

Paul, you’ve posted here and on other sites about your second home, a mountain cabin near Yosemite NP. I propose you lead by example and donate your cabin to the Yosemite Workers Alliance to help alleviate the affordable housing shortage.

Or put a spare key under ceramic frog on the back deck so I don’t have to stay in the park, which would help with overcrowding… 👍🏻

There’s a huge gap between folks who have a mountain cabin in the woods and the sorts of things described in Paul’s article and a book like Billionaire Wilderness.

The area around Yosemite park is very low density. Napa and Sonoma are of another scale altogether.

(Although someone with better info may come along to correct me.)

But still, Napa and Sonoma etc are in the Bay Area, a major metropolis and site of wealth and poverty and yes, large populations of peoples. Mariposa extends about four blocks.

Tahoe on the other hand has hundreds of summer/winter homes that go vacant for 48 weeks of the year.  Covid caused an influx of wealthy Bay Area-ers looking to escape the pandemic in the mountains, just in time for the first of several catastrophic fire seasons that entered the towns and made the air unbreathable for months on end. lake Tahoe is an easy drive out of the bay area. Yosemite, not so much.