Hi All. Sorry for the delay in responding, I just returned from several days on the trail.
I will try to respond to each of the comments:
I tested a pretty wide range of tents, both single-wall and double-wall, in a fairly broad range of weather conditions. As I said in the article, there may be tent constructions that perform differently than those available to me and provide better solutions. My results and conclusions are based on weeks of outdoor tests under a variety of environmental conditions. Tent performance was measured using an array of instruments as well as my subjective impressions.
I expected my conclusions to be controversial, particularly my finding that double-well tents offer no comfort advantage over single-wall tents. However, the measured data strongly support this conclusion.
We all know that air is a great insulator. However, in order for air to insulate, it cannot be allowed to move. If it can move, convection will occur and heat will readily transfer from air molecule to molecule. Your down insulation or synthetic batt insulation works because it traps air in tiny pockets and limits air movement. Convection is prevented. This is not the case in the space between the walls of most double-wall tents. In these tents, the air is free to circulate in all directions. It will circulate both in response to temperature gradients due to internal heat stratification or deformation of the tent walls due to puffs of wind or occupant movement. Convective heat transfer from the outer layer to the inner happens quickly and efficiently. You can see convective heat transfer with your own eyes by viewing the video attached to figure 11, for a single-wall Dyneema tent. This video did not work when the article went online, but it does now. I now wish I had made a similar video for a two-wall tent, but that will have to wait.

This IR image shows a double-wall tent interior along the ridgeline. A flap in the inner is cut open to allow us to image the surface temperature of the fly and the inner wall in the same area. We see that the surface temperatures are nearly identical. We see that left of the tent ridge, the interior surface is actually colder than the exposed fly temperature. This is likely because the sky temperature “seen” at the left side of the ridge is a little colder than what is “seen” to the right of the exposed fly. The air temperature just below the inner is 36.1F, as measured on the surface of the temperature/humidity sensor hanging from a string by the open flap.
I placed temperature sensors at the ridge, between the tent walls and 6″ above the tent floor. The inner wall is always slightly warmer than the air space between the inner wall and the fly, but not much. My test results show, on average, the double-wall interior air temperature is only 2F warmer than that of the single wall tent.
While personal comfort experiences can be informative, they do not provide conclusive evidence due to unknown variables such as tent construction, pitching, sky view, and environmental conditions. In my tests, these variables are systematically measured, providing a basis for my conclusions.
There may be tent designs or materials that more effectively reduce heat loss from occupants inside the tent or provide better humidity control than the ones I tested. Certainly, that is the claim of Warmlite. Reviews and discussions of Warmlite tents often provide conflicting opinions. Unfortunately, their website has changed and is no longer as descriptive as it once was about materials and construction methods. As was pointed out by Bill Budney, I took some data on a group outing from a Warmlite and some other tents. Unfortunately, for that test, tree cover varied for each tent that was monitored, so I never felt the resulting data was dependable. For what it is worth, the Warmlite was not the warmest tent. However, if someone has a Warmlite double-wall tent and wants to send it to me once winter returns, I would be very happy to instrument it and see how it does.
On the subject of convection. I presume by “convection,” Matt is referring to wind blowing through a tent or forced air exchange due to wind deformation. It is unclear to me that double-wall tents reduce air-flow volume in a tent. I am assuming that a single-wall tent used in winter is pitched to the ground or wall/floor interfaces are sealed. Forced air exchange can occur in single-wall or double-wall tents as a result of wind deformation forcing air exchange through ventilation openings. Single-wall tents like the Duplex are terrible in cold, windy weather because the fly is far from the ground and there is abundant netting between the tub floor and the fly. My Durston Pro+ pitches to the ground but has net vents at each end, which will allow wind and spindrift to enter the tent. For winter use, I have fashioned Dyneema panels to cover these vents. They are secured with Velcro.
Roger brought up radiant heat loss through tent walls, which the article discusses in great detail. Included are actual measurements of both night sky temperatures and tent wall IR transmissivity of various fabrics. One of the key findings in my testing was that as heat loss due to IR transmission drops tent wall temperature below outside air temperature, convection from outside air warms the surfaces back up. You can watch this occur in the figure 11 video. Of course, as described in the article, high IR transmissivity has a disproportionate impact on comfort when skin is exposed directly to a tent fly or a tent fly in a double-wall tent where the inner wall also has high transmissivity. In my single-wall Dyneema tent, I wear a neoprene face mask to ensure this is not a problem in the winter.
Tent heat transfer balance has many moving parts. My comments above touch superficially on only some of the important issues. The article provides a lengthy, detailed discussion of the issues, complete with test results to quantify what is happening. My hope is that before readers of the thread append their comments based on only their reading latest comments, they read the article first and then point out the shortcomings of my analytical approach. Then, I may have some new issues to study next winter.