“I believe I read somewhere that our breath accounts for 80-90% of that 200ml per 8 hours listed above.”
yeah, exactly.
I don’t think outside RH would be much of a factor – nearby lakes or whatever.
Inside my bivy will be humid because of insensible perspiration. Then, if there’s a temperature difference between inside and outside, humidity will be driven out. Even if the outside RH is high. It’s the temperature difference from inside to outside that’s important.
Outside RH would cause condensation on the outside of the bivy.
The biggest thing I’ve noticed is that if it’s clear and the night sky is visible to the outside of my bivy, first the air temperature will go down, because of radiative cooling, until the RH goes up to 100%. Then the outside of the bivy will further cool from radiative cooling, and then all the outside humidity will condense on the outside of the bivy. Also, any gear I have next to my like my glasses, flashlight,…
Sometimes, it’s worth it, I like to look at the stars. Then you have to dry everything off the next day.
Other times I’ll put up my mid and leave the door open so I can see and hear. There’ll be condensation on the inside of the mid, but not on my bivy or gear next to me. The tent walls protect me from the radiative cooling. Or sleeping in an area with tree cover so very little night sky is visible will way reduce condensation.
If the RH is low or if it’s cloudy then there won’t be much if any condensation on the outside of the bivy.
I have never had any condensation inside my bivy even when the outside was wet, because I don’t breath into it.
The medium MLD superlight solo would be pretty good – 7.5 ounces. Unzip the top so the bivy covers your shoulders and around your neck, but your head is totally outside the bivy. Wear a hat or balaclava for warmth.
A problem with quilts is it comes up on the edges and cold air gets in. People talk about getting a wider quilt so it can be tucked in, or straps or whatever, those don’t seem as good a solution as a bivy. The bivy prevents any drafts around the edges of the quilt. You could use a small quilt instead of a large one and the weight savings will almost pay for the weight of the bivy.
Again, your mileage may vary…