A few years back I lost 5 lbs (not water weight) after just 4 or 5 days so decided to better count my calories. I got to the point that I can predict weight loss or gain to within a quarter pound after 6 days, so thought I’d share as it might spark some conversation in the community here.
Using gear skeptics recommended 65% fat (169kcal/oz) vs the more traditional 35% fat (131kcal/oz), one could save 2 lbs on food weight for a 7 day food carry, which is nothing to sneeze at. But 65% fat just isn’t practical.
My food plan uses Gearskeptic’s format but I added nutritional info for all my own ingredients. I then estimate the average kcal/oz for the entire carry. Without relying too much on olive oil bumps or whole nuts, I can pretty easily hit 130cal/oz average with food I love to eat, with the right combo of proteins and salts.
Using a BMR calculator and a PAL estimated from my past trips (1.7), I then estimate total calories I’ll need and then project weight loss expected (lbs = calorie deficit/3500) based on calories carried. On my 4 day trip last week, I predicted 0 oz weight gain/loss, and on return weighed identical to what I was when I left. Admittedly a bit of a fluke but my calculations usually get me to within a quarter pound for up to 6 days.
I looked into the topic of bioavailability last winter because not all calories may be taken up by the body. The best study I found was from the Scientists in the ARS Food Components and Health Laboratory in Beltsville, Maryland who found calorie uptake was less than the label by:
• Whole Pistachios: 5 % less
• Whole Walnuts: 21 % less
• Whole Almonds: 32 % less
• Chopped nuts provided the next fewest compared to the label
• Nut butters were consistent with the fat calories on the label
I don’t rely too heavily on whole nuts though, eating maybe 40g a day. I get the food density up using nut butters, crushed nuts in bars, Quaker harvest crunch (with crushed almonds), even some coconut powder, and of course some olive oil but not enough to dominate the taste of a meal.
This tells me at least that I have no issues with bioavailability from the other ingredients. That or my PAL is an overestimate that accurately offsets any bioavailability effects.
That’s really what matters, watch your weight after sections and then adjust calorie intake accordingly.
Using gearskeptic’s sheet as the baseline, its not too hard to whip together a spreadsheet based meal plan that will let you know exact what you’re getting in your food and if you’ll gain or lose weight

