@DavidD
Gotta bite. Can’t control myself. Thomas Smith has himself vehemtly distanced himself from the prevailing media narrative, a vast misunderstanding, about his studies that everybody who is deathly afraid of guns has clung to. He did so to my face when I met him at the Outdoor Expo in Sandy a few years back. Any attempt to use his data to “prove” anything is bullucks. Not enough data and too many variables. This article gets to the root of the problem. Most people conflate both of his studies when they had completely different goals.
Wes Siler of Outside Magazine seems to be the only mainstream journalist interested interested in exploring this issue deeply. His article is here.
https://www.outsideonline.com/2401248/does-bear-spray-work
Anybody interested in knowing more about bear encounter behavior should read it along with all of us “idiots with guns”.
Here is a telling paragraph and quote from Tom Smith:
“Yet in public opinion, media reports, and public-safety messaging, we have an overwhelming impression that bear spray is the one-stop solution to safely recreating in bear country. Dave Smith calls this, “propaganda” and says he fears that it leads to misinformation and misunderstanding about what it takes to stay safe around bears”.
Bear attacks are rare and reporting, lack of reporting and variables are full of noise. I personally think bear spray is probably the right choice for the vast majority of people and certainly for people who are not properly trained with firearms. It also has its risks, as accidental deployment and misuse are RAMPANT. Both have their use cases where they shine. When taking a deeper look into the numbers you link to, they are not as great as they seem. In fact they are the opposite. We need more study, more understanding and, most importantly, more education on prevention.
Also remember that when you are wandering around the deep backcountry of Wyoming, Alaska, Montana, Idaho, Utah et al, please show respect for other people’s choices. After all, in many of these places you’re the “unusual” one without a gun.